Scrutable

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:41 am Georgia's also missing 80,000 very blue votes due to a polling station error, apparently.

Wouldn’t have made much of a difference.

Actually, Senate would be 49-49 assuming both Georgias head to the run-off.

Won:
CO
AZ (near as damn it)

Lost:
Alabama

Run-offs:
Georgia x2

Possible:
Maine, Iowa, Montana

I need to sleep. Feeling terrible.

PA looks to be gone. f.ck

End of the republic.

f.cks sake, they've counted f.ck all in Pennsylvania, calm down.

A joy of living out east is that I get to keep up with this at work.

Oof no thanks.

I'd rather wake up, rip the plaster off, and get on with my day.,

Both NE-1 and NE-2 are plausible wins for Biden.

NE-2 is Omaha.

NE-1 is the ring around Omaha. Shouldn't be anywhere near competitive, but on raw vote count so far it's actually better than NE-2.

SENATE:

None of the distant hope for the Democrats are coming in. Republicans hold Texas, Mississippi, Kansas etc.

The fun scenario is a 269-269 presidential tie and a 49-49 senate with two run offs in Georgia.

More than a million mail-in ballots haven't been counted in Penn yet.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:13 am The fun scenario is a 269-269 presidential tie and a 49-49 senate with two run offs in Georgia.

I'm looking forward to your Dutch oven already.

Can't sleep.

Fox calls ARIZONA for Biden!

Unbelievable a few hours ago that we would be facing this, but this is tonight's first state to switch.

And almost certainly the last state to switch.

WI, MI and PA are going to have to wait days.

NE-1 NE-2 and ME-2 might switch tonight, though.

Though need to keep worrying about Nevada switching the other way...

Iowa is doing a Ohio.

Looking quite good for Biden early on, but Trump will start to stretch away.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:24 am Can't sleep.

Yo tambien.

It really is incredible what 7 decades of anti-Soviet pro free market propaganda has done to the American mind. A warning from history to future historians (if there are any).

Current state of play.

Biden is at 227.

He must hold Minnesota (10) and Nevada (6), both won by Clinton.

Takes him to 243.

Must capture Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (16).

Takes him to 269 tie.

Must take one of NE-1, NE-2 or ME-2 to get to 270-268 victory.

Would not then need Pennsylvania (20) or Iowa (6). Or for that matter the still-not-guaranteed-for-Trump Georgia (16) or North Carolina (15).

Looks like we won’t know the result for a while. MI, PA and WI will take a long time to count, probably days.

Good that Biden picked up AZ. ETA or has likely picked it up.

As a reminder of the 538 final polling averages:

Minnesota +9.1
Wisconsin +8.3
Michigan +8.0
Nevada +6.1

The Florida polling f.ck up was 5.6. Of which a good chunk was specific Cuban-Hispanic. Polling error in New Hampshire was only in the region of 2.

I think I should be able to sleep a bit with those kinds of odds. If Biden fails to win those four states, f.ck him and f.ck America.

But then needs Pennsylvania (+4.7 per polls) and/or the NE-1 NE2 ME-2 add-ons.

(ETA and still a slim chance of reversing the current bad position in Georgia and North Carolina)

Biden is 16% behind in PA, with half the vote counted. The big cities have finished their count yet.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:38 am Looks like we won’t know the result for a while. MI, PA and WI will take a long time to count, probably days.

Good that Biden picked up AZ.

As far as I can tell, only Fox has said that so far. Same for Florida (for Trump).

SENATE:

Hard to believe, but Collins (R) is well ahead in Maine.

Iowa is going wrong. Democrats could lose one of their 3 House seats, Senate win looks very unlikely.

Only net +1 on the night for the Democrats, to take it from 53-47 to 52-48. Maybe Montana, and then the Georgia run-off.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:24 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:13 am The fun scenario is a 269-269 presidential tie and a 49-49 senate with two run offs in Georgia.

I'm looking forward to your Dutch oven already.

Just realised I should have said "I can smell your Dutch oven already."

What a missed opportunity.