Scrutable

bjn wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:32 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:24 am Can't sleep.

Yo tambien.

As a totally pointless aside, I think Spanish would tend to use tampoco rather than también to affirm a negative in this way, a bit like English would use "me neither" instead of "me too".

Portuguese by contrast uses "também não", because whilst tampouco exists it's used a bit differently.

Can't remember if French has a negative alternative to aussi, and I've never known any other languages.

Iowa is gone, heading to Trump by +5 or +6. That's still a swing to Democrats from +9.4 in 2016, which is encouraging for its neighbouring states. A polling miss of 3 or 4, however.

Looks good for ME-2. That 1 electoral college vote would take it to 270-268 for Biden in the world where he loses Pennsylvania. What a nightmare, though, in terms of unfaithful electors and a desperate Trump trying every trick.

Ahead in NE-2 as well, though a muddle of early vote/election day vote. The Biden lead in NE-1 is expected to reverse - it's based on the urban area around Omaha and the rural results will pull it back to Trump fairly easily.

NE-2 would make it 271-267.

I think this is the best summary, from someone on twitter:

If you're a Democrat whose goal was America repudiates Donald Trump and his politics I understand disappointment. If you're Democrat whose goal is Joe Biden becomes the next president it's not that bleak

And Georgia is not yet done.

Back into toss-up territory.

Which should help me get a couple of hours sleep...

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:01 am Can't remember if French has a negative alternative to aussi, and I've never known any other languages.

German has "ich auch nicht" that corresponds to French "moi non plus" and Norwegian "ikke jeg heller".
"Ikke ... heller" is close to "non plus" and "auch nicht".
I dont' feel for "aussi non" or something.

Here's Nebraska.

NE-2 safe with not much left to count. NE-1 heading away.

Oh.

Fox have retracted their call on Arizona.

Well f.ck.

Should be ok though. Big leads.

And now they haven't retracted Arizona...

Biden: We are on track to win.

Patience, must count every ballot... But effectively that was Biden claiming victory.

Claims AZ, PA, says still in the game in Georgia.

Trump's claiming to have won in Poland.


ETA: booo! He's corrected Poles to polls already.

I had a nightmare that Trump won. Was really hoping for some decisive numbers to allow me to shake that dread and get back to sleep but it's not decisive enough.

Is there still hope here? Biden seems miles behind in the states that matter now. Even if he wins the mail ballots 4 to 1 it will be close right?

This is a nightmare scenario, the rest of this month is going to be a wild ride through the US courts.

Pianissimo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:11 am Is there still hope here? Biden seems miles behind in the states that matter now. Even if he wins the mail ballots 4 to 1 it will be close right?

This is a nightmare scenario, the rest of this month is going to be a wild ride through the US courts.

Still room for hope.

There's still hope but it's much, much closer than any of us hoped for.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:29 am There's still hope but it's much, much closer than any of us hoped for.

True.

“This is a fraud on the American public,” the president said a the White House. “This is an embarrassment to our country.”

Trump added, “We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.”

The president has not won re-election as of now, and key swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain too close to call.

The president pledged to fight the results of the election at the supreme court.

“We will be going to the US supreme court. We want all voting to stop,” Trump said.

Trump’s behaving as if he thinks he’s lost.

Biden can actually afford to lose Pennsylvania now and still win the presidency. So that's good. Except for the risk of faithless electors, obviously. He still has a fair chance of winning Pennsylvania though. He needs Michigan too.

But the Democrabs won't win the senate, at least for a bit, which is where the real damage is done. And they'll keep control of the house, but it was supposed to be better than this.

How are the congressional delegations looking if it's a tie?

It’s not over because the votes counted are very far from representative of the votes still being counted and there are reasons to believe the ones being counted will swing heavily to Biden.

However looks like if Biden does win them it will be messy, as trump will not accept it. This scenario was talked about a lot before the election...

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:52 am Biden can actually afford to lose Pennsylvania now and still win the presidency. So that's good. Except for the risk of faithless electors, obviously. He still has a fair chance of winning Pennsylvania though. He needs Michigan too.

But the Democrabs won't win the senate, at least for a bit, which is where the real damage is done. And they'll keep control of the house, but it was supposed to be better than this.

How are the congressional delegations looking if it's a tie?

It cannot be a tie.

Trump claimed AZ is still open. AP promptly calmed it for Biden.

NE2 is Biden's.

Biden simply has to win any two of WI, MI, PA or GA.

Yeah I was apparently underestimating what was left. This is going to be one hell of a court fight though, which is worrying given the 6-3 ratio on the court.

Pence said something slightly different to Trump.

The slight difference in words makes a huge difference in meaning. Pence is not going along with a mad coup attempt.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:01 am

bjn wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:32 am

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:24 am Can't sleep.

Yo tambien.

As a totally pointless aside, I think Spanish would tend to use tampoco rather than también to affirm a negative in this way, a bit like English would use "me neither" instead of "me too".

Portuguese by contrast uses "também não", because whilst tampouco exists it's used a bit differently.

Can't remember if French has a negative alternative to aussi, and I've never known any other languages.

Yeah its yo tampoco.

This was the first post I read when I woke up, sorry.

AP has called AZ for Biden.

Nevada is looking like it might go to Biden.

I've been plugging the called states into 538's simulator and it suggests that Biden still wins in 85% of their simulations. If I give him Arizona (as Fox did), that ticks up to 96%.

Still to call: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Maine, marine 2nd district, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

So yes, still a good chance that Biden will win the presidency but it will take days to resolve and all the fantasies about a progressive landslide in the electoral college and senate that would allow lots of reforms are dead.

Squeak wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:06 am I've been plugging the called states into 538's simulator and it suggests that Biden still wins in 85% of their simulations. If I give him Arizona (as Fox did), that ticks up to 96%.

Still to call: Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Maine, marine 2nd district, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

So yes, still a good chance that Biden will win the presidency but it will take days to resolve and all the fantasies about a progressive landslide in the electoral college and senate that would allow lots of reforms are dead.

NY Times have called Maine for Biden, which pushes him to 91% chance, even without Arizona.

I should have emphasised before that the 538 models don't attempt to control for what they politely call "extraconstitutional shenanigans" and at least some of those win simulations would involve legal battles of some kind.