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Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:17 am
by lpm
Pianissimo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:00 am
Yeah I was apparently underestimating what was left. This is going to be one hell of a court fight though, which is worrying given the 6-3 ratio on the court.
It's not clear what would actually reach the supreme court.
It has to be on an actual thing, e.g. "We the plaintiffs want the late received votes not to be counted".
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:26 am
by TimW
Trump wrote:We won states and all of a sudden I said what happened to the election? It’s off. And we have all these announcers saying what happened, and then they said: oooh. Because you know what happened? They knew they couldn’t win so they said let’s go to court. And did I predict this, did I say this? I’ve been saying this from the day I heard they were going to send out tens of millions of ballots, I said exactly this. Because either they were going to win, or if they didn’t win, they’ll take us to court.
Great speech. "They" said let's go to court, because they knew they couldn't win?
Trump wrote:so we’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:36 am
by Bewildered
So based on numbers in fox I get roughly that to win in:
- Michigan Biden needs to win more than about 59% of remaining votes
- Pensylvania Biden needs to win more than about 62% of remaining votes
- Wisconsin Biden needs to win more than about 89% of remaining votes
I didn’t factor the percent or so won by the libertarian candidate etc though, but the first two seem quite plausible Biden wins at least.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:39 am
by lpm
We don't know how many remaining votes there are.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:47 am
by Bewildered
lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:39 am
We don't know how many remaining votes there are.
Ah right I am to tired... I forgot about that part.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:01 am
by lpm
And we don't know what sort. They are most early votes rather than election day votes, and thought to be quite pro Biden.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:47 am
by bob sterman
Bewildered wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:36 am
So based on numbers in fox I get roughly that to win in:
- Michigan Biden needs to win more than about 59% of remaining votes
- Pensylvania Biden needs to win more than about 62% of remaining votes
- Wisconsin Biden needs to win more than about 89% of remaining votes
I didn’t factor the percent or so won by the libertarian candidate etc though, but the first two seem quite plausible Biden wins at least.
Numbers on CNN and AP now put Biden ahead in Wisconsin. So a huge chunk of votes remaining when you posted must have gone to Biden.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:51 am
by lpm
Yes.
Nevada looks OK.
Wisconsin looks OK but is going to take a long time to finalise.
Georgia is perhaps slightly better than 50/50 for Biden.
Michigan is very slow but better than 50/50.
Pennsylvania is even slower.
(North Carolina looks lost)
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:53 am
by Woodchopper
lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:51 am
Yes.
Nevada looks OK.
Wisconsin looks OK but is going to take a long time to finalise.
Georgia is perhaps slightly better than 50/50 for Biden.
Michigan is very slow but better than 50/50.
Pennsylvania is even slower.
(North Carolina looks lost)
mmmm Nevada seems too close to call.
But Biden is now just ahead in Wisconsin. Which is good given that they are counting votes in Green Bay.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:55 am
by lpm
Looks like Biden is getting around 75% of the mail vote.
The more counting, the stronger his position will get. Which will make Trump's statement look more and more like desperation.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:08 am
by plodder
more? it’s already 100% desperate
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:20 am
by El Pollo Diablo
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:28 am
by lpm
plodder wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:08 am
more? it’s already 100% desperate
But it doesn't look it. Yet.
What would be ideal is if Americans wake up to Biden leads in WI and MI. That's noon UK time.
Trump's statement then looks mad - he wants to "stop voting" yet is behind.
Even better if Nevada is sorted (what's happening there?) and Biden has inched into a lead in Georgia.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:33 am
by lpm
Nevada:
Biden 588,000
Trump 578,000
Some mail ballots to come in Clark County, which is about 60-40 Biden territory. Hence margin will grow.
However these ballots will come in over a few days and there's no chance of a result soon.
But Biden ahead is a good visual for low-information Americans waking up.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:36 am
by El Pollo Diablo
lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:28 amBiden has inched into a lead in Georgia.
Where have you seen that?
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:41 am
by lpm
Some twitterer says 75,000 ballots left to count in Nevada Clark county and they are 67% Biden.
He seems to be the go-to guy people are looking to on Nevada.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:44 am
by lpm
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:36 am
lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:28 amBiden has inched into a lead in Georgia.
Where have you seen that?
The PTSD needle.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ident.html
Gives Biden 64% chance currently and gives that it's tracking to Biden +0.4
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:51 am
by noggins
Nah. Trump wins 283:255, see you in the next one and dont be late.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:56 am
by Woodchopper
Its based upon most of the uncounted votes being from Atlanta, in areas that are expected to vote for Biden. But it'll be close.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:16 am
by lpm
Atlanta was where the burst water pipe was and they stopped counting.
There's been a lot of hatred for the needles, mainly because Georgia jumped from 88% probability for Trump to slight advantage to Biden around midnight eastern time.
I'm not sure why they should be distrusted now, though, after their f.ck up has been corrected. Obviously it's very close and we won't know for days, but if they model it with Biden at 64% why not believe it?
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:24 am
by El Pollo Diablo
Right, well probably time to get some work done I guess. Hope you get some sleep LPM and don't accidentally crash the markets or anything.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:40 am
by El Pollo Diablo
I'm not 100% sure what's happening in North Carolina but Biden just pulled to within 67,000 votes of Trump there.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:42 am
by dyqik
Still, Right to Repair passed in MA, despite huge auto industry efforts against it. And my congressional rep won reelection with somewhere above 90% of the vote.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:45 am
by El Pollo Diablo
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:40 am
I'm not 100% sure what's happening in North Carolina but Biden just pulled to within 67,000 votes of Trump there.
Orange county, Wake county, Cumberland county and Forsyth county there have big populations and results yet to report.
Re: US Election
Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:05 pm
by lpm
New York Times
"Remaining Vote in Pennsylvania"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upsh ... llots.html
The president leads by nearly 700,000 votes, but there are 1.4 million absentee votes outstanding.
By Nate Cohn
Nov. 4, 2020, 6:53 a.m. ET
Joe Biden has won absentee ballots counted in Pennsylvania by an overwhelming margin so far, according to data from the Secretary of State early Wednesday. If he carried the remaining absentee ballots by a similar margin, he would win the state.
... forecast Biden 50.3%, Trump 48.5%
President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania as of 5 a.m. on Wednesday, and Mr. Biden’s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted.
So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78 percent to 21 percent, according the Secretary of State’s office. The results comport with the findings of pre-election surveys and an analysis of absentee ballot requests, which all indicated that Mr. Biden held an overwhelming lead among absentee voters.If Mr. Biden won the more than 1.4 million absentee votes by such a large margin, he would net around 800,000 votes — enough to overcome his deficit statewide.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that Mr. Biden will win the remaining absentee vote by quite so much. But so far, his standing in the tabulated absentee vote has almost exactly matched our pre-election projections for the absentee vote by county, based on New York Times/Siena polling and data from L2, a political data vendor.
...If anything, the pre-election estimates suggest that Mr. Biden might be expected to do better, because the areas with remaining absentee votes are ever so slightly more Democratic than the state as a whole.
And there are possible if still uncertain sources of additional strength for Mr. Biden, like absentee ballots that arrive in the days after the election — or the possibility that the count is not yet including ballots that were left in drop boxes on the day of the election.
Mr. Trump has few places to turn for votes. His strength in the Election Day vote, which he carried by a wide margin, is all but exhausted, according to our estimates of the vote remaining. Most of the Election Day vote that remains is in Philadelphia and its suburbs.