Scrutable

dyqik wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:42 am Still, Right to Repair passed in MA, despite huge auto industry efforts against it. And my congressional rep won reelection with somewhere above 90% of the vote.

Excellent news!

I'm looking forward to a write-up of these kinds of down ticket votes, once all the scary stuff is over.

So am I right in thinking that some of the early results last night were
1. Ignoring likely differences between early and presential votes?
2. Based on "calls" from corrupt partisan networks like Fox (inter alia) rather than actual votes?

I keep making the mistake of thinking that USians will have sensible processes for things.

1. Yes
2. No. Fox isn't particularly corrupt in this particular respect. Same with their polling.

Ok, thanks.

Re: 2.

It seems de facto implausible that the polling and forecasting departments would be immune from influence from their employers, who as we all know specialise in fake news and are huge Trump supporters. But maybe they've escaped notice or something.

Outsourcing (early) election results to the private sector still seems really weird to me.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:33 pm Ok, thanks.

Re: 2.

It seems de facto implausible that the polling and forecasting departments would be immune from influence from their employers, who as we all know specialise in fake news and are huge Trump supporters. But maybe they've escaped notice or something.

For an example, here are 12 graphics Fox showed yesterday from their exit polls. https://twitter.com/existentialfish/sta ... 50570?s=19

Clear majorities in favor of Democratic policies.

Fox called AZ for Biden early and got absolute hell from the Trump campaign for it. There will have been serious threats behind the scenes - threatening to deploy kompromat - but Fox stood with it. Finally AP joined Fox in calling AZ but not for a couple of hours.

There's also:

3. Florida came in hard and fast and f.cked us all with a massive polling miss in Trump's favour. That set the scene for the subsequent stories. Georgia joined it with a screw up. North Carolina drifted away. And then it took a long time for the lesser polling misses further north to come through (e.g. New Hampshire).

Interesting.

It'll also be interesting to look at comparisons between different polling and forecasting groups once the dust settles.

Just seems weird. If I were a billionaire owner of a fake news corporation my polling branch would be my chief weapon. Not outright stupidity like some of the more obviously biased ones, just a nudge here and there - because my "opponents" would take my polls much more seriously than my editorialising.

If Fox are just putting out stuff that's in line with real news organisations that's a big missed opportunity for fraud. I'll be sure to tell the Murdochs when we meet for our monthly curry next week.

I haven't really got a clue what's going on, but I see that in the last few hours the bookies have moved Trump's odds from approx 2-1 to 3-1.

TimW wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:52 pm I haven't really got a clue what's going on, but I see that in the last few hours the bookies have moved Trump's odds from approx 2-1 to 3-1.

I assume it is because virtually all the Election Day votes have been counted by now, giving Trump narrow leads in several battlegrounds, but a lot of the absentee ballots are still to be included and they are breaking in some cases around 75:25 for Biden producing the predicted Blue Shift and squeezing and flipping Trump's leads.

Meanwhile the slim leads Biden has in other states are now being stretched and it isn't obvious where Trump can find the votes to overcome them.

Leaving us with the painfully protracted sight of the Blue Shift tilting things Biden's way just as that well of absentee ballots is beginning to run dry and wondering which will give out first.

Meanwhile the Repugs are trying to prematurely terminate the ballot counting on the democratically robust principle that if all the votes are counted they might lose.

It is a re-run of Bush v Gore but over 6 states not 1.

Biden is still in a good position to win all of Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. That's enough for him. He also still could win Penn and Georgia as well, which would put him over 300. North Carolina is possible but a stretch.

So if he wins Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan and loses the rest the result will be 271-267?

Better hope they chose their electors well!

If Trump does win - this could be the first time in US history that a candidate has achieved an electoral college majority while his opponent has won an absolute majority of the popular vote.

Yes - there have been previous occasions when the losing candidate has won a greater share of the popular vote than the electoral college winner. But not with the loser having >50%.

TIMETABLE

8 remaining states plus one Maine district

Currenly Biden has 227 EVs

Wisconsin 10 EVs

Will finish count "Wednesday morning"
Currently Biden 49.5%, Trump 48.8% after 97% counted
Win!

Arizona 11 EVs

Will finish count "on Wednesday"
Already been called by Fox and AP but not Edison
Currently Biden 51.8%, Trump 46.8% after 82% counted
Win!

Michigan 16 EVs

"Expect to have a clear picture, if not a final picture" by Wednesday evening
Currently Biden 48.9%, Trump 49.4% after 86% counted
Probably a win

Georgia 16 EVs

Will finish count "on Wednesday"
Currently Biden 48.3%, Trump 50.5% after 92% counted
50/50

Maine ME-2 1 EV

Expected soon
Probably a win

Nevada 6 EVs

Will not provide any more results until noon eastern on Thursday
Currently Biden 49.3%, Trump 48.7% after 86% counted
Probably a win

North Carolina 15 EVs

Can accept mailed ballots post marked election day until 12 Nov
Currently Biden 48.7%, Trump 50.1% after 95% counted
Lost

Pennsylvania 20 EVs

Expect most ballots counted by Friday
Currently Biden 43.6%, Trump 55.1% after 75% counted
Leans to Biden

Alaska 3 EVs

Next week some time
Currently Biden 35%, Trump 61%
Lost

Put this together and Biden does not win today unless he wins Georgia. AZ, WI and MI only take him to 264. He has to wait for Nevada at noon Thursday for the extra 6 to take him to 270 (or 271 with ME-2). He then has to wait till Friday for victory in PA and 290 (or 291) votes. In addition, the winning margin might be so slight that recounts are needed.

NYT reports Biden as just having pulled ahead in Michigan.

By less than 500 votes at the moment, so maybe put the loo roll in the fridge.

Oh, no, it just jumped up to 7000 votes.

Does anyone know why the BBC are saying Biden has 224 EC votes, whereas the Guardian are saying he has 238 ?
Oh, and the NYT has him on 227

This means Biden currently has a numerical lead in enough states to win. AZ MI WI NV.

If Trump shuts down every count this instance then Biden is President.

No idea what low info Americans are seeing right now. Do they realise Biden has almost won?

Gfamily wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:25 pm Does anyone know why the BBC are saying Biden has 224 EC votes, whereas the Guardian are saying he has 238 ?
Oh, and the NYT has him on 227

Because the BBC is sh.t.

They will be using Edison which hasn't called AZ 11 EVs. AP called AZ.

It's 227 without Arizona, 238 with.

The BBC must be excluding 3 from Maine.

Who won Maine-2? Or has it not been called yet?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:33 pm Who won Maine-2? Or has it not been called yet?

The NYT has Biden having won all of Maine's electoral votes.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:38 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:33 pm Who won Maine-2? Or has it not been called yet?

The NYT has Biden having won all of Maine's electoral votes.

Ignore that. It has Biden having won 3 and one still undecided.

Does PA have 8.4m votes or 7.0m votes? Because the Guardian says one and NYT says the other.

C'mon 2020 for once in your useless existence don't be a complete thunderc.nt!

ME2 can make no mathematical difference to any scenario - except unlikely one where Biden wins NC's 15 and loses MI's 16.