Scrutable

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:35 pm**

Little waster wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:52 pm C'mon 2020 for once in your useless existence don't be a complete thunderc.nt!

Too late. This needed to be decisive to show that Trump and his politics were a flash in the pan. They're not. Even if/when Trump leaves the White House we now know that there are millions of people who support him and will no matter what.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:37 pm**

Um.... USPS... have you been delivering all your mail? In Miami? In Atlanta?

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:39 pm**

Republicans are claiming that AZ was called to early and they can still win it.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:44 pm**

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:39 pm Republicans are claiming that AZ was called to early and they can still win it.

99 percent of the expected vote is now in from the Grand Canyon State, and Biden leads by 3.4 percentage points.

Can someone get the Republicans a calculator?

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:46 pm**

The people who feel they were let down and overlooked by politicians for years after the financial crisis have not gone away. The fact that their champion is such a horrible piece of sh.t is a distraction because it's not all about him even though he is incapable of conceiving that anything isn't all about him.

When R4 came on this morning a commentator whose identity I missed said some simple but fairy insightful stuff including that pro-Trump voters ignore everything he says and just look at what he does and the anti-Trump voters just look at what he says.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:47 pm**

Little waster wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:44 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:39 pm Republicans are claiming that AZ was called to early and they can still win it.

99 percent of the expected vote is now in from the Grand Canyon State, and Biden leads by 3.4 percentage points.
Can someone get the Republicans a calculator?

From the NYT

Because of an error in an Edison Research data feed of results, the estimate of the counted vote in Arizona displaying on maps and tables is too high. The actual estimate is that 86% of the vote has been counted.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:49 pm**

Biden is also a very bad candidate. I hope to f.ck he wins but he is not inspiring or anything close to it.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:05 pm**

Martin Y wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:46 pm The people who feel they were let down and overlooked by politicians for years after the financial crisis have not gone away. The fact that their champion is such a horrible piece of sh.t is a distraction because it's not all about him even though he is incapable of conceiving that anything isn't all about him.

When R4 came on this morning a commentator whose identity I missed said some simple but fairy insightful stuff including that pro-Trump voters ignore everything he says and just look at what he does and the anti-Trump voters just look at what he says.

The bold bit isn't quite right, because what Trump actually does is pretty mainstream Republican stuff like tax cuts for the wealthy. This is why the Republican party kept him around. Obviously yes there are Republican voters who are fully on board with the Republican wealth redistribution schemes, but there are a lot of blue collar Trump voters who don't particularly like that (see e.g. this for an example of how alternative economic views are gaining traction on the right). Presumably Trump's bombast and rhetoric have something to do with his popularity, because without it he's just another inherited wealth city boy with his hand in the pockets of working people.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:07 pm**

Martin Y wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:46 pm The people who feel they were let down and overlooked by politicians for years after the financial crisis have not gone away. The fact that their champion is such a horrible piece of sh.t is a distraction because it's not all about him even though he is incapable of conceiving that anything isn't all about him.

When R4 came on this morning a commentator whose identity I missed said some simple but fairy insightful stuff including that pro-Trump voters ignore everything he says and just look at what he does and the anti-Trump voters just look at what he says.

Yeah, IMHO this would have been a good election to put forward a candidate with a compelling alternative vision, and perhaps a strong personality, rather than an all-things-to-all-people soft-focus blancmange.

The reason it's so easy for Republicans to claim the Democrats are radical communists who want to take everyone's guns and stuff is that the Democrats don't actually have a one-sentence vision of what they want, and politics abhors a vacuum.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:21 pm**

cvb wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:49 pm Biden is also a very bad candidate. I hope to f.ck he wins but he is not inspiring or anything close to it.

As a candidate to run the country, I agree. But I've reluctantly concluded that he is the safest pair of hands the Democrats could have picked to take on Trump. Sanders: Too radical. Warren: Too many ovaries. Buttigieg: Too gay. Everyone white person in America has an uncle like Joe Biden, and he polls massively among Black voters. (Many Americans, of course, also have an uncle like Donald Trump...)

If his brain starts to really go, he might be persuaded to hand over to Harris after the 2022 midterms.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:35 pm**

TimW wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:52 pm I haven't really got a clue what's going on, but I see that in the last few hours the bookies have moved Trump's odds from approx 2-1 to 3-1.

3.5 now (sorry! 7-2)

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:37 pm**

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:10 pm ME2 can make no mathematical difference to any scenario - except unlikely one where Biden wins NC's 15 and loses MI's 16.

It could be insurance against a single faithless elector in a 270-268 scenario.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:38 pm**

How the odds have gone in the last 24 hours on one site. I was very depressed at 5.30 this morning, feeling more hopeful now.

: 2020_11_04_16_36_39_Next_President_Politics_odds_Smarkets_betting_exchange.png (50.47 KiB) Viewed 3304 times

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:40 pm**

secret squirrel wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:05 pm
Martin Y wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:46 pm The people who feel they were let down and overlooked by politicians for years after the financial crisis have not gone away. The fact that their champion is such a horrible piece of sh.t is a distraction because it's not all about him even though he is incapable of conceiving that anything isn't all about him.

When R4 came on this morning a commentator whose identity I missed said some simple but fairy insightful stuff including that pro-Trump voters ignore everything he says and just look at what he does and the anti-Trump voters just look at what he says.
The bold bit isn't quite right, because what Trump actually does is pretty mainstream Republican stuff like tax cuts for the wealthy. This is why the Republican party kept him around. Obviously yes there are Republican voters who are fully on board with the Republican wealth redistribution schemes, but there are a lot of blue collar Trump voters who don't particularly like that (see e.g. this for an example of how alternative economic views are gaining traction on the right). Presumably Trump's bombast and rhetoric have something to do with his popularity, because without it he's just another inherited wealth city boy with his hand in the pockets of working people.

Most importantly, though, many Americans prefer to see lose-lose where the people they hate are losing, rather than win-win, where the people they hate also win, possibly more so than they do. Of course, win-lose is their favorite option, but the second choice...

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:40 pm**

gosling wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:38 pm How the odds have gone in the last 24 hours on one site. I was very depressed at 5.30 this morning, feeling more hopeful now.

2020_11_04_16_36_39_Next_President_Politics_odds_Smarkets_betting_exchange.png

People buying up consolation bets?

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:44 pm**

dyqik wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:40 pm
gosling wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:38 pm How the odds have gone in the last 24 hours on one site. I was very depressed at 5.30 this morning, feeling more hopeful now.

2020_11_04_16_36_39_Next_President_Politics_odds_Smarkets_betting_exchange.png
People buying up consolation bets?

Looking at the odds leaves me torn between thinking "the wisdom of crowds" and "the wisdom of the sort of people who gamble on stuff".

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:00 pm**

Fishnut wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:35 pm
Little waster wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:52 pm C'mon 2020 for once in your useless existence don't be a complete thunderc.nt!
Too late. This needed to be decisive to show that Trump and his politics were a flash in the pan. They're not. Even if/when Trump leaves the White House we now know that there are millions of people who support him and will no matter what.

It's not a flash in the pan. Trumpism is an extension of Tea Party politics. The Tea Party established itself in the GOP and their supporters way before Trump did. It's going to be a long time before it goes away, even if beaten this time.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:17 pm**

Part of me is pleased to have expressed my hesitations about all the polling, but that’s doing nothing for my extreme anxiety.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:20 pm**

malbui wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:17 pm Part of me is pleased to have expressed my hesitations about all the polling, but that’s doing nothing for my extreme anxiety.

You and me both

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:24 pm**

Biden has just got Wisconsin.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:58 pm**

And ME-2.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:01 pm**

I'm liking the look of Georgia.

Trump up 86,000 votes.

Maybe 250,000 to 300,000 votes to count.

All good Democrat areas.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:01 pm**

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:58 pmAnd ME-2.

Shirley, #ME-2

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:10 pm**

dyqik wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:37 pm
lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:10 pm ME2 can make no mathematical difference to any scenario - except unlikely one where Biden wins NC's 15 and loses MI's 16.
It could be insurance against a single faithless elector in a 270-268 scenario.

It also could deliver a nice little wind up of Trump -

If Biden wins PA and GA then he could win with 307 EVs.

Trump won in 2016 with 306 EVs.

Posted: **Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:11 pm**

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:01 pm I'm liking the look of Georgia.

Trump up 86,000 votes.

Maybe 250,000 to 300,000 votes to count.

All good Democrat areas.

The Guardian has about 3.3% of the votes left to count in Fulton county (pop. 1 million) so I think you're out by a factor of 10. (ETA and so would be the Guardian with its estimate of 250,000 votes left to count in all of Georgia, so I don't know how this works.)

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