Scrutable

IvanV wrote: Sat Nov 16, 2024 11:09 am
There's a surprising number of Trump friends and supporters coming out and saying, you have to distinguish the rants, which predict nothing, from actual policy. So, for example, they think - hope - most of the terrible stuff is rant, not policy. Thus they justify, at least to their own conscience, that they did not vote for a fascist.

So what did they vote for? Lower taxes?

I understand the casual Trump voter less than the MAGA loons. The latter sincerely believe in a semi-coherent worldview which appeals to recognisable prejudices and interests. But "Yeah, he tried a coup, he's airlocked by Putin and the Religious Right, but, but....inflation"

noggins wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:29 am

IvanV wrote: Sat Nov 16, 2024 11:09 am
There's a surprising number of Trump friends and supporters coming out and saying, you have to distinguish the rants, which predict nothing, from actual policy. So, for example, they think - hope - most of the terrible stuff is rant, not policy. Thus they justify, at least to their own conscience, that they did not vote for a fascist.

So what did they vote for? Lower taxes?

I understand the casual Trump voter less than the MAGA loons. The latter sincerely believe in a semi-coherent worldview which appeals to recognisable prejudices and interests. But "Yeah, he tried a coup, he's airlocked by Putin and the Religious Right, but, but....inflation"

See what woodchopper posted.

There has to be some deep (unconscious?) prejudice to think that compared to Harris, Trump is just a "regular guy".

jimbob wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:51 am

noggins wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:29 am

IvanV wrote: Sat Nov 16, 2024 11:09 am
There's a surprising number of Trump friends and supporters coming out and saying, you have to distinguish the rants, which predict nothing, from actual policy. So, for example, they think - hope - most of the terrible stuff is rant, not policy. Thus they justify, at least to their own conscience, that they did not vote for a fascist.

So what did they vote for? Lower taxes?

I understand the casual Trump voter less than the MAGA loons. The latter sincerely believe in a semi-coherent worldview which appeals to recognisable prejudices and interests. But "Yeah, he tried a coup, he's airlocked by Putin and the Religious Right, but, but....inflation"

See what woodchopper posted.

There has to be some deep (unconscious?) prejudice to think that compared to Harris, Trump is just a "regular guy".

As far as I'm aware the 'regular guy' thing isn't about riches etc, its about whether someone is perceived as belonging to a technocratic managerial class of people who run large businesses (eg HR departments), higher education, foundations, government and other organizations. As with all classes, the managerial technocrats have their own cultural norms, practices and barriers to entry which set them apart from the rest of the population. This class is perceived as being associated with the Democrats, or at least the white progressive graduates. It is deeply resented by the rest of the population due to it being associated with both being useless parasites (people who have six figure b.llsh.t jobs) and prone to telling regular guys how they should live their lives.

The Republicans have successfully been able to associate themselves as being in opposition to the managerial technocratic class, and they've done this largely via cultural vibes. They have presented themselves as the champions of the common man by being powerful but outside the system. Musk's promise to cut millions of federal workers is a promise to attack the technocratic managerial class.

The long term problem with Trump, Vance and Musk is that any leader needs the managerial technocrats to actually achieve anything. The danger for the US isn't totalitarianism, but that over four years the federal government will be so damaged that it won't be fit to implement future policies.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:05 pm

jimbob wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:51 am

noggins wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:29 am

So what did they vote for? Lower taxes?

I understand the casual Trump voter less than the MAGA loons. The latter sincerely believe in a semi-coherent worldview which appeals to recognisable prejudices and interests. But "Yeah, he tried a coup, he's airlocked by Putin and the Religious Right, but, but....inflation"

See what woodchopper posted.

There has to be some deep (unconscious?) prejudice to think that compared to Harris, Trump is just a "regular guy".

As far as I'm aware the 'regular guy' thing isn't about riches etc, its about whether someone is perceived as belonging to a technocratic managerial class of people who run large businesses (eg HR departments), higher education, foundations, government and other organizations. As with all classes, the managerial technocrats have their own cultural norms, practices and barriers to entry which set them apart from the rest of the population. This class is perceived as being associated with the Democrats, or at least the white progressive graduates. It is deeply resented by the rest of the population due to it being associated with both being useless parasites (people who have six figure b.llsh.t jobs) and prone to telling regular guys how they should live their lives.

The Republicans have successfully been able to associate themselves as being in opposition to the managerial technocratic class, and they've done this largely via cultural vibes. They have presented themselves as the champions of the common man by being powerful but outside the system. Musk's promise to cut millions of federal workers is a promise to attack the technocratic managerial class.

The long term problem with Trump, Vance and Musk is that any leader needs the managerial technocrats to actually achieve anything. The danger for the US isn't totalitarianism, but that over four years the federal government will be so damaged that it won't be fit to implement future policies.

I disagree slightly with the your last paragraph. I'm guessing more Orban or than Franco or maybe Peron.

jimbob wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:14 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:05 pm

jimbob wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:51 am

See what woodchopper posted.

There has to be some deep (unconscious?) prejudice to think that compared to Harris, Trump is just a "regular guy".

As far as I'm aware the 'regular guy' thing isn't about riches etc, its about whether someone is perceived as belonging to a technocratic managerial class of people who run large businesses (eg HR departments), higher education, foundations, government and other organizations. As with all classes, the managerial technocrats have their own cultural norms, practices and barriers to entry which set them apart from the rest of the population. This class is perceived as being associated with the Democrats, or at least the white progressive graduates. It is deeply resented by the rest of the population due to it being associated with both being useless parasites (people who have six figure b.llsh.t jobs) and prone to telling regular guys how they should live their lives.

The Republicans have successfully been able to associate themselves as being in opposition to the managerial technocratic class, and they've done this largely via cultural vibes. They have presented themselves as the champions of the common man by being powerful but outside the system. Musk's promise to cut millions of federal workers is a promise to attack the technocratic managerial class.

The long term problem with Trump, Vance and Musk is that any leader needs the managerial technocrats to actually achieve anything. The danger for the US isn't totalitarianism, but that over four years the federal government will be so damaged that it won't be fit to implement future policies.

I disagree slightly with the your last paragraph. I'm guessing more Orban or than Franco or maybe Peron.

You're probably right. I'm concerned about talk of them shutting down whole departments and firing half of the people in the departments that remain. But they probably won't be able to manage that.

They probably have two years until anti-incumbent sentiment means they lose control over the House or Senate, and Trump is too old for a decades long project. So they are unlikely to be able to axe too much state capacity.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:05 pm The Republicans have successfully been able to associate themselves as being in opposition to the managerial technocratic class, and they've done this largely via cultural vibes. They have presented themselves as the champions of the common man by being powerful but outside the system. Musk's promise to cut millions of federal workers is a promise to attack the technocratic managerial class.

Just to illustrate, this picture has received a lot of attention on social media.

The point isn't that they are persuading people that they're working class. Republican voters will see them as a couple a billionaires and a Kennedy sitting on a private plane. The deliberate message with consuming McDonalds and Coca Cola on a private plane is that they are going to stick it to the managerial technocrats (the kind of people who refuse to let their kids eat at McDonalds and prefer to eat quinoa salad washed down with kombucha). In terms of classes, the picture symbolizes a promised alliance between the aristos and the workers against the bourgeois.

Is the message not that they're each eating two burgers, the greedy f.ckers?

I saw it as a deliberate humiliation of RFK Jr.

Like bullies forcing a kid to eat an onion or an army hazing ritual.

lpm wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 5:53 pm I saw it as a deliberate humiliation of RFK Jr.

Like bullies forcing a kid to eat an onion or an army hazing ritual.

Could be that too. I seem to remember that Trump used to humiliate Chris Christie by ordering him to go out and get McDonalds meals for his boss.

Surely the person being humiliated is the chap popping into the back of shot. Not allowed on the table with the cool kids.

they obviously don't know that the innermost circle of hell is reserved for the smug bastards - (or they don't care)

Lew Dolby wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 7:09 pm they obviously don't know that the innermost circle of hell is reserved for the smug bastards - (or they don't care)

Probably a lack of self awareness

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:05 pm
As far as I'm aware the 'regular guy' thing isn't about riches etc, its about whether someone is perceived as belonging to a technocratic managerial class of people who run large businesses (eg HR departments), higher education, foundations, government and other organizations. As with all classes, the managerial technocrats have their own cultural norms, practices and barriers to entry which set them apart from the rest of the population. This class is perceived as being associated with the Democrats, or at least the white progressive graduates. It is deeply resented by the rest of the population due to it being associated with both being useless parasites (people who have six figure b.llsh.t jobs) and prone to telling regular guys how they should live their lives.

It is in fact more than just the managerial class. It is the "elites" broadly described. There is in small town America a deep sense that the American Dream as promised has passed them by. This is coupled with resentment at being told that views they hold are no longer welcome. Mrs P's cousin who now lives in deep red Boebert country (well ex Boebert country now, as she moved to the other side of the Rocky Mountains) summed it up for me as follows. Despite having grown up on a ranch just out of town that his family had owned for more than 100 years and going to the local High School, he has 3 major things against him: 1) he has a Ph.D.; 2) he lived in Boulder; 3) he worked for the Government (in the National Institute for Standards and Technology, not something that has any direct effect on most people).

I have certainly noticed a turn against the "elite" in the US in my interactions with people. Back in the late 1980s when I was a newly minted Ph.D. I noticed that the attitude in the US was very different to the attitude in Europe. In Europe, no one was interested in the fact that I had a Ph.D., I may as well have said I had a certificate in underwater pot smoking. In the US, I was treated as some sort of very minor celebrity. I remember that when I was first introduced to my now in-laws they were immensely impressed that I had a Ph.D. and it became a feature of my introduction to any family acquaintances, despite my contention that it was no big deal.* In my trips to the US over the last 10 years or so, I make conscious efforts to steer conversations away from my qualifications, just to avoid having other people get wound up.

*This is not strictly true. I treat my Ph.D. as being among my major personal achievements and I value it much more highly than being a Professor. Which leads me to an amusing story. I was having a conversation with a new hire, who has taken over from a colleague who died suddenly. The discussion was about how to manage an existing grant I was asked to help out with. They wanted me to be the new PI on the grant, because I was a Professor and they would not be able to tell me what to do. I told them to come and look at my office door where it has "Dr Chris Preston", pointed to it and said this is what I consider important. You have a Ph.D. as well, which makes us equal.

bjn wrote: Fri Nov 15, 2024 8:54 am He’s appointing loyalists who are not going to invoke the 25th amendment against him regardless of what happens.

I doubt Trump has any concern for the 25th amendment. He is appointing loyalists who will let him do what he pleases and provide him with all the flattery that he desires.

Chris Preston wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 3:36 am

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:05 pm
As far as I'm aware the 'regular guy' thing isn't about riches etc, its about whether someone is perceived as belonging to a technocratic managerial class of people who run large businesses (eg HR departments), higher education, foundations, government and other organizations. As with all classes, the managerial technocrats have their own cultural norms, practices and barriers to entry which set them apart from the rest of the population. This class is perceived as being associated with the Democrats, or at least the white progressive graduates. It is deeply resented by the rest of the population due to it being associated with both being useless parasites (people who have six figure b.llsh.t jobs) and prone to telling regular guys how they should live their lives.

It is in fact more than just the managerial class. It is the "elites" broadly described. There is in small town America a deep sense that the American Dream as promised has passed them by. This is coupled with resentment at being told that views they hold are no longer welcome. Mrs P's cousin who now lives in deep red Boebert country (well ex Boebert country now, as she moved to the other side of the Rocky Mountains) summed it up for me as follows. Despite having grown up on a ranch just out of town that his family had owned for more than 100 years and going to the local High School, he has 3 major things against him: 1) he has a Ph.D.; 2) he lived in Boulder; 3) he worked for the Government (in the National Institute for Standards and Technology, not something that has any direct effect on most people).

I have certainly noticed a turn against the "elite" in the US in my interactions with people. Back in the late 1980s when I was a newly minted Ph.D. I noticed that the attitude in the US was very different to the attitude in Europe. In Europe, no one was interested in the fact that I had a Ph.D., I may as well have said I had a certificate in underwater pot smoking. In the US, I was treated as some sort of very minor celebrity. I remember that when I was first introduced to my now in-laws they were immensely impressed that I had a Ph.D. and it became a feature of my introduction to any family acquaintances, despite my contention that it was no big deal.* In my trips to the US over the last 10 years or so, I make conscious efforts to steer conversations away from my qualifications, just to avoid having other people get wound up.

I agree, and in my vaguely Marxist analysis I'm using terms that wouldn't be used by the Trump voters themselves. Using my terms, it seems like Mrs P's cousin would count as an arch technocrat (graduate degree, worked in government, lives in a fashionable city).

This is why "self-made* billionaires**" like Trump and Musk, and multimillionaire owners of chains of car dealerships are viewed as men of the people, while someone who went through the military straight out of school, got a degree via the GI Bill benefits, and then worked for local government at a government salary is an elite.

*Inherited large amounts of wealth based on dodgy practices
**[Citation Needed] in Trump's case

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 1:47 pm This is why "self-made* billionaires**" like Trump and Musk, and multimillionaire owners of chains of car dealerships are viewed as men of the people, while someone who went through the military straight out of school, got a degree via the GI Bill benefits, and then worked for local government at a government salary is an elite.

*Inherited large amounts of wealth based on dodgy practices
**[Citation Needed] in Trump's case

The degree?

noggins wrote: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:29 am

IvanV wrote: Sat Nov 16, 2024 11:09 am
There's a surprising number of Trump friends and supporters coming out and saying, you have to distinguish the rants, which predict nothing, from actual policy. So, for example, they think - hope - most of the terrible stuff is rant, not policy. Thus they justify, at least to their own conscience, that they did not vote for a fascist.

So what did they vote for? Lower taxes?

I understand the casual Trump voter less than the MAGA loons. The latter sincerely believe in a semi-coherent worldview which appeals to recognisable prejudices and interests. But "Yeah, he tried a coup, he's airlocked by Putin and the Religious Right, but, but....inflation"

Trump is rather like the bible, making many contradictory statements.* As with bible followers, Trump followers select out what they like, and ignore the rest. To them, the rest is just the rant.

So what they voted for varies according to who they are. Many people can find much to like, it would appear, among his numerous contradictions.

*An excellent source on just how contradictory the bible is, concentrating on just the New Testament, is Jesus, Interrupted by Bart Ehrmann. Just about every NT author, it would appear, had their own quite distinctive and contradictory opinion on what Jesus thought, said and did. Indeed some NT biblical authors, like Trump, presented contradictions within their own works. But this is usually attributed to them being more than one author writing under the same name, or else having their work "revised" by later copyists. Curiously, preachers rarely draw their congregation's attention to these contradictions, although in any standard training course for holy orders, they would have had these contradictions drawn to their attention.

bjn wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 2:34 pm

dyqik wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 1:47 pm This is why "self-made* billionaires**" like Trump and Musk, and multimillionaire owners of chains of car dealerships are viewed as men of the people, while someone who went through the military straight out of school, got a degree via the GI Bill benefits, and then worked for local government at a government salary is an elite.

*Inherited large amounts of wealth based on dodgy practices
**[Citation Needed] in Trump's case

The degree?

Getting a basic qualification for an office job - associates degree, degree, whatever.

All votes are in the process of being counted, with mainly more liberal states in the west of the US yet to complete their tally. On Monday Trump had 49.94, while Harris was at 48.26, with more votes still to be come, which will likely narrow the gap. So he hasn't won an outright majority of the popular vote. So the supposed big dip in Democrat votes may partly be due to late counting.

Of course the Electoral College makes all of that moot, but there is no massive mandate.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ocialshare

Trump says he is nominating TV doctor Mehmet Oz to lead Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

A government of all the lack of talents

Stranger Mouse wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 9:11 pm Trump says he is nominating TV doctor Mehmet Oz to lead Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

A government of all the lack of talents

Yes, this one...

bjn wrote: Tue Nov 19, 2024 6:02 pm All votes are in the process of being counted, with mainly more liberal states in the west of the US yet to complete their tally. On Monday Trump had 49.94, while Harris was at 48.26, with more votes still to be come, which will likely narrow the gap. So he hasn't won an outright majority of the popular vote. So the supposed big dip in Democrat votes may partly be due to late counting.

Of course the Electoral College makes all of that moot, but there is no massive mandate.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ocialshare

Well Biden received > 81 million votes in 2020. With the final votes counted Harris is not going to exceed 75 million. Trump is currently on about 76 million - vs nearly 77 million in 2020.

So not sure how to describe this outcome as anything other than a big dip in Democrat votes? 6 million votes down is a big dip.

It was 16 million down at one point.

bjn wrote: Wed Nov 20, 2024 7:47 am It was 16 million down at one point.

Yes - but as you pointed out - that was to be expected because the west coast - in particular California - is slow to count. But California has now counted 97%, Oregon 99% and Washington 97% of their votes.

So the drop in Democratic votes is going to be in the 5-6 million range.