Scrutable

bjn wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:24 pm Biden has just got Wisconsin.

Are you sure? It hasn’t been called by the AP or NYT. And Biden is just a whisker ahead so there will be a recount.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:19 pm

bjn wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:24 pm Biden has just got Wisconsin.

Are you sure? It hasn’t been called by the AP or NYT. And Biden is just a whisker ahead so there will be a recount.

The previous GOP governor of Wisconsin seems to think that the recount won't matter - previous recounts in 2011 and 2016 changed the totals by under 600 votes.

That doesn't mean there won't be a recount. And if there is you can't declare a winner, even if everyone knows who won

And AP won't call anything that's closer than 1% until there's an official announcement. Or something like that.

AP or anyone else calling it doesn't matter. Biden has won it. Trump will fight against it. What the news networks say makes f.ck all difference.

According to AP it's Trump who won ME-2.

I don't know what the f.ck is going on. I think it was NBC who gave it to Biden.

The Democrat won ME-2 in the House race, Trump won it in the Presidential. Americans are f.cking idiots.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:19 pm

bjn wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:24 pm Biden has just got Wisconsin.

Are you sure? It hasn’t been called by the AP or NYT. And Biden is just a whisker ahead so there will be a recount.

20,000 votes is a hefty whisker.

TimW wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:35 pm

TimW wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:52 pm I haven't really got a clue what's going on, but I see that in the last few hours the bookies have moved Trump's odds from approx 2-1 to 3-1.

3.5 now (sorry! 7-2)

Narrowed again: bookies now have Trump at 9-4 against, Biden 3-1 on. (My brief foray into online betting here.)

America is a f.cking stupid country.

Shenaningans.

Donald Trump’s reelection campaign said it had filed a lawsuit to halt the counting of ballots in the swing state of Michigan.

clicky

monkey wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:06 pm Shenaningans.

Donald Trump’s reelection campaign said it had filed a lawsuit to halt the counting of ballots in the swing state of Michigan.

clicky

Seems an odd thing to do given that trump is losing there.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:09 pm

monkey wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:06 pm Shenaningans.

Donald Trump’s reelection campaign said it had filed a lawsuit to halt the counting of ballots in the swing state of Michigan.

clicky

Seems an odd thing to do given that trump is losing there.

He thinks he'll lose and wants to invalidate it.

Okay, several questions.

Why do US elections always seem to end up in the courts?

How can you have an election where the question of whether to count all the votes is even a matter for debate, let alone for court cases?

How can they argue for a recount in one state and to stop the initial count early in another?

Why does the US make this so complicated?

Well, he's practically lost there, so why not try a bit of shenaninganising? Presumably he's doing it for the narrative rather than doing it in reality - it's pretty cheap and he'll be firing off fundraising emails to his suckers.

It's clear the Trump Team has got its strategy - pray for Arizona to turn around and then grind Pennsylvania to a halt and claim the electors.

Arizona is odd - Fox called it last night, AP followed, Edison still has it open. I can't see any real problems when I revisit the numbers - Trump has to win the outstanding vote pretty convincingly to close the gap.

AMS wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:19 pm Okay, several questions.

Why do US elections always seem to end up in the courts?

How can you have an election where the question of whether to count all the votes is even a matter for debate, let alone for court cases?

How can they argue for a recount in one state and to stop the initial count early in another?

Why does the US make this so complicated?

Quick answer is that its all very decentralized. Each county organizes the vote slightly differently. Imagine how it would work in the UK if every small town had its own electoral regulations, and everyone knew that politicians would try to game those regulations for their party's advantage.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:17 pm

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:09 pm

monkey wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:06 pm Shenaningans.



clicky

Seems an odd thing to do given that trump is losing there.

He thinks he'll lose and wants to invalidate it.

Probablly. This seems like the first step in doing that, stops a winner being declared before a redo.

Trump's campaign have got a press conference in a bit, I guess we'll find out more there and have much more to complain about.

The AP has called Wisconsin for Biden.

I'd be grateful to know I'm wrong about this, but doesnt the Trump playbook go something like

Create a bit of confusion in key states (possibly the USPS thing is related)
Launch any old lawsuit - merit doesnt much matter
Get it into Supreme court
Court loyalists get him in

How the f.ck did Susan f.cking Collins win

bob sterman wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:47 am

Bewildered wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:36 am So based on numbers in fox I get roughly that to win in:

- Michigan Biden needs to win more than about 59% of remaining votes
- Pensylvania Biden needs to win more than about 62% of remaining votes
- Wisconsin Biden needs to win more than about 89% of remaining votes

I didn’t factor the percent or so won by the libertarian candidate etc though, but the first two seem quite plausible Biden wins at least.

Numbers on CNN and AP now put Biden ahead in Wisconsin. So a huge chunk of votes remaining when you posted must have gone to Biden.

This was much nicer news to wake up to! My numbers were based on Fox news’ % counted which as per lpm’s comment below my post is just an estimate and was not really known. So I am not sure if the remaining votes broke really heavily to Biden or if there were just a truckload more to come in than estimated by fox’s projection.

Boaf asked somewhere if Fox News was making biased calls and was already answered no. Just to add I started using Fox News because I found their info best displayed for me to quickly get what was going on, but I would not have done so if I hadn’t heard heir projections were some of the best and not corrupted by the channel, and they have shown results that Fox News presenters then try to question before.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:35 pm How the f.ck did Susan f.cking Collins win

It's not clear that she has. And it's probably at least partly due to ticket splitters who want a Republican check on the Democrats, and who saw Biden way ahead in the polls.

Well the other woman has conceded so we can class it as gone tbh

Biden less than 400k votes away in Pennsylvania

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:35 pm How the f.ck did Susan f.cking Collins win

People voted for her. HTH