Getting Brexit done

[Brightonian]

Latest Tony Connelly piece on behind-the-scenes negotiations: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/121 ... ade-talks/

[Dermot O'Logical]

.. I'd wondered the same thing and had almost asked the same question myself, till I soon discovered it's simply stockpiling by businesses.

But I've since seen a figure saying freight volumes are actually only 40% above normal (no, I now cannot find it). If that's true, I'm surprised that freight traffic is so sensitive to a not-huge change in volumes.

Presumably it reaches a critical threshold. If the lorries keep arriving faster than the ferries have capacity to deal with (whether that's processing paperwork or physically having enough space to carry) then the queue will just build and build.

[lpm]

Urban traffic jams are highly sensitive to small changes. Jam at 110% normal, clear roads at 90%. A rainy day vs no schools in half term.

[Woodchopper]

Latest Tony Connelly piece on behind-the-scenes negotiations: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2020/121 ... ade-talks/

Thanks for posting, it’s a very good summary.

[Woodchopper]

I hadn't expected the ports to get f.cked up this early. Felixstowe as well as Dover.

In Twitter there was an angry exchange when someone asked why the huge queues of lorries given that we're still de facto in the EU. Someone replied implying the questioner was a Brexiter troll for asking, but I don't think he was. In fact, I'd wondered the same thing and had almost asked the same question myself, till I soon discovered it's simply stockpiling by businesses.

But I've since seen a figure saying freight volumes are actually only 40% above normal (no, I now cannot find it). If that's true, I'm surprised that freight traffic is so sensitive to a not-huge change in volumes.

Felixstowe has been over capacity for over a month. Looks like a combination of Christmas, Brexit stockpiling and Covid PPE imports took it over capacity.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54908129

Shippers from China etc had to unload at Rotterdam and other ports and then smaller ships would take the cargo to UK regional ports. UK freight problems caused a global shortage in containers (as they weren’t being sent back to China as planned).
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55237791

So it looks like maritime logistics was already over capacity for weeks and the queues in Kent were the most obvious symptom.

[Woodchopper]

.. I'd wondered the same thing and had almost asked the same question myself, till I soon discovered it's simply stockpiling by businesses.

But I've since seen a figure saying freight volumes are actually only 40% above normal (no, I now cannot find it). If that's true, I'm surprised that freight traffic is so sensitive to a not-huge change in volumes.

Presumably it reaches a critical threshold. If the lorries keep arriving faster than the ferries have capacity to deal with (whether that's processing paperwork or physically having enough space to carry) then the queue will just build and build.

Exactly.

[sTeamTraen]

Own trumpet alert: I seem to have won Remain Twitter today.

[Woodchopper]

Another deadline missed, both sides to keep talking.
https://twitter.com/michelbarnier/statu ... 39049?s=21

Can’t find a UK announcement so far. Lack of a joint statement isn’t a good sign.

Any deal isn’t going to be ratified by the EU Parliament by 1January. Provisional application of some of a deal is possible but unlikely. Why should the EU put its self through a constitutional crisis just because Johnson can’t make his mind up?

Eleven days left.

[plebian]

The flag-shaggers have been wanging on about how the UK doesn't need EU food products, one aspect of which has been the claim that they all eat something called Somerset Brie. I thought I would write a snarky tweet about that (we're mostly locked down here and I'm bored), so I went to look up the size of the producers of Somerset Brie, expecting to say something like "FFS, it's a small family business that only makes 50,000 cheeses a year, it's hardly going to compete with the capacity of big French producers".

Instead, I discovered something quite interesting. :lol:

Brilliant read thanks.

[jimbob]

The flag-shaggers have been wanging on about how the UK doesn't need EU food products, one aspect of which has been the claim that they all eat something called Somerset Brie. I thought I would write a snarky tweet about that (we're mostly locked down here and I'm bored), so I went to look up the size of the producers of Somerset Brie, expecting to say something like "FFS, it's a small family business that only makes 50,000 cheeses a year, it's hardly going to compete with the capacity of big French producers".

Instead, I discovered something quite interesting.

Brilliant read thanks.

Yup - and retweeted

[sTeamTraen]

It's rather gratifying that a few people who liked that thread are now more or less systematically going round tweeting links to it in reply to week-old tweets about Somerset Brie from pompous bellends. Any cognitive dissonance we can get going among flag shaggers ought to be a good thing.

[plodder]

Another deadline missed, both sides to keep talking.
https://twitter.com/michelbarnier/statu ... 39049?s=21

Can’t find a UK announcement so far. Lack of a joint statement isn’t a good sign.

Any deal isn’t going to be ratified by the EU Parliament by 1January. Provisional application of some of a deal is possible but unlikely. Why should the EU put its self through a constitutional crisis just because Johnson can’t make his mind up?

Eleven days left.

And now France has closed the border. Pressure cooker time.

[Bird on a Fire]

At least the EU won't be suddenly closing the border on January 1.

[Woodchopper]

Another deadline missed, both sides to keep talking.
https://twitter.com/michelbarnier/statu ... 39049?s=21

Can’t find a UK announcement so far. Lack of a joint statement isn’t a good sign.

Any deal isn’t going to be ratified by the EU Parliament by 1January. Provisional application of some of a deal is possible but unlikely. Why should the EU put its self through a constitutional crisis just because Johnson can’t make his mind up?

Eleven days left.

And now France has closed the border. Pressure cooker time.

I doubt that signing a Brexit deal would open the channel border. Canada, Israel even El Salvador have suspended flights. Seems to be separate from Brexit.

[Woodchopper]

Government statement https://www.gov.uk/government/news/gove ... ion-period

Recognising the impact of coronavirus on businesses’ ability to prepare, and following the announcement in February that the UK would implement full border controls on imports coming into GB from the EU, the UK has taken the decision to introduce the new border controls in three stages up until 1 July 2021. This flexible and pragmatic approach will give industry extra time to make necessary arrangements. The stages are:

From January 2021: Traders importing standard goods, covering everything from clothes to electronics, will need to prepare for basic customs requirements, such as keeping sufficient records of imported goods, and will have up to six months to complete customs declarations. While tariffs will need to be paid on all imports, payments can be deferred until the customs declaration has been made. There will be checks on controlled goods like alcohol and tobacco. Businesses will also need to consider how they account for VAT on imported goods. There will also be physical checks at the point of destination or other approved premises on all high risk live animals and plants.
From April 2021: All products of animal origin (POAO) – for example meat, pet food, honey, milk or egg products – and all regulated plants and plant products will also require pre-notification and the relevant health documentation.
From July 2021: Traders moving all goods will have to make declarations at the point of importation and pay relevant tariffs. Full Safety and Security declarations will be required, while for SPS commodities there will be an increase in physical checks and the taking of samples: checks for animals, plants and their products will now take place at GB Border Control Posts.

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove said:

We have informed the EU today that we will not extend the Transition Period. The moment for extension has now passed. At the end of this year we will control our own laws and borders which is why we are able to take the sovereign decision to introduce arrangements in a way that gives businesses impacted by coronavirus time to adjust.

Today’s announcement is an important step towards getting the country ready for the end of the Transition Period, but there is still more work to be done by both government and industry to ensure we are ready to seize the opportunities of being a fully independent United Kingdom.

[TimW]

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove said:

We have informed the EU today that we will not extend the Transition Period.

There are no plans to extend the Transition Period.

[plodder]

I doubt that signing a Brexit deal would open the channel border. Canada, Israel even El Salvador have suspended flights. Seems to be separate from Brexit.

I'll have you know the only way - the only way - that the UK's borders can be controlled is through Brexit. The idea that EU states can unilaterally close their borders via a press release is sheer poppycock.

[plodder]

Government statement https://www.gov.uk/government/news/gove ... ion-period

Recognising the impact of coronavirus on businesses’ ability to prepare, and following the announcement in February that the UK would implement full border controls on imports coming into GB from the EU, the UK has taken the decision to introduce the new border controls in three stages up until 1 July 2021. This flexible and pragmatic approach will give industry extra time to make necessary arrangements. The stages are:

From January 2021: Traders importing standard goods, covering everything from clothes to electronics, will need to prepare for basic customs requirements, such as keeping sufficient records of imported goods, and will have up to six months to complete customs declarations. While tariffs will need to be paid on all imports, payments can be deferred until the customs declaration has been made. There will be checks on controlled goods like alcohol and tobacco. Businesses will also need to consider how they account for VAT on imported goods. There will also be physical checks at the point of destination or other approved premises on all high risk live animals and plants.
From April 2021: All products of animal origin (POAO) – for example meat, pet food, honey, milk or egg products – and all regulated plants and plant products will also require pre-notification and the relevant health documentation.
From July 2021: Traders moving all goods will have to make declarations at the point of importation and pay relevant tariffs. Full Safety and Security declarations will be required, while for SPS commodities there will be an increase in physical checks and the taking of samples: checks for animals, plants and their products will now take place at GB Border Control Posts.

Have the EU signed up to this too?

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove said:

We have informed the EU today that we will not extend the Transition Period. The moment for extension has now passed. At the end of this year we will control our own laws and borders which is why we are able to take the sovereign decision to introduce arrangements in a way that gives businesses impacted by coronavirus time to adjust.

Today’s announcement is an important step towards getting the country ready for the end of the Transition Period, but there is still more work to be done by both government and industry to ensure we are ready to seize the opportunities of being a fully independent United Kingdom.

[gosling]

Own trumpet alert: I seem to have won Remain Twitter today.

ooh, that was you? was an interesting read - thanks!

[Woodchopper]

I doubt that signing a Brexit deal would open the channel border. Canada, Israel even El Salvador have suspended flights. Seems to be separate from Brexit.

I'll have you know the only way - the only way - that the UK's borders can be controlled is through Brexit. The idea that EU states can unilaterally close their borders via a press release is sheer poppycock.

It almost seems like France is acting like a sovereign state.

[Bird on a Fire]

I doubt that signing a Brexit deal would open the channel border. Canada, Israel even El Salvador have suspended flights. Seems to be separate from Brexit.

I'll have you know the only way - the only way - that the UK's borders can be controlled is through Brexit. The idea that EU states can unilaterally close their borders via a press release is sheer poppycock.

It almost seems like France is acting like a sovereign state.

Yes, notably various states implemented their own border control measures at a national level without waiting for the EU's say-so.

Obviously they can only do that for covid reasons, not as part of a long-term trade policy.

[sTeamTraen]

I doubt that signing a Brexit deal would open the channel border. Canada, Israel even El Salvador have suspended flights. Seems to be separate from Brexit.

Well, Canada is run by an arch-globalist, Israel is run by Jews, and the father of El Salvador's president is an imam. So they're all definitely in on the conspiracy. </frootloop>

[Opti]

Is anyone watching that pair of prize c.nts giving a briefing from No 10?
f.ck me, useless, smirking bullshitting idiots.

[Little waster]

Is anyone watching that pair of prize c.nts giving a briefing from No 10?
f.ck me, useless, smirking bullshitting idiots.

The Tl;dw version:-

Look in a interconnected global JIT-based economy even small disruptions can rapidly escalate into serious problems especailly against the background of a global pandemic but don't worry we are currently working like crazy to somehow stagger through the next couple of days and hope it all blows over. We just hope that our closest neighbours in the EU retain their warm fuzzies towards us

In other news we are still fully committed to driving the economy off the edge of a cliff in 10 days time and can't see any reason to think that incinerating 40% of our trade and most of our food imports for years to come won't be a glowing success and we'll show those dirty jackbooted foreign c.nts in the EU a thing or two.

[jimbob]

One that my Brexit bingo card had missing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/PGMcNamara/s ... 2356555776

Paul McNamara
@PGMcNamara
Insult to injury...

Lorry drivers parked up on roads in Kent slapped with Parking Fines