Scrutable

mikeh wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:58 am Meanwhile, Neil Ferguson, he of the recent modelling paper, has tweeted a reckoning he has come down with COVID19 and is thus self-isolating. Also reckons theres tons of it around in Westminster.

Daily press conferences may become Prime Minister Skype calls soon*

* that's my comment, not from Neil Ferguson

Ouch, the last thing we need is the scientists working on the pandemic to be sick. I hope he makes a rapid recovery.

I cant believe that doctor's report.
Consultants working a night shift - do they think we are fools to be taken in by such nonsense?

This school is still open but with ever decreasing numbers of kids turning up
I will sit in my prep room and quickly push any practicals needed, into the lab, on a trolley and the shut the door - spraying cleanser as I go.

Hong Kong - electronic bracelet and a phone app for all arrivals.

https://twitter.com/OZmandia/status/1240207452940849152

If a test can be developed to show anti-bodies and confirn the "have had it" status, then simple wrist bands would be useful - wearers who are assumed immune and can be press ganged into public service. But full electronic bracelets for the non-immune.

Eye-popping study from #Iran's Sharif University w/ 3 #COVIDー19 scenarios:

*If Iranians start following govt guidelines NOW = some 12,000 die

*If they cooperate somehow = 110,000 die

*No cooperation = the outbreak peaks in June and up to 3.5m Iranians die

https://twitter.com/SuneEngel/status/12 ... 9709127682

Tweet posted refers to an article in the Wall Street Journal. But I'm not able to get past the paywall.

This programme needs to be watched.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p ... r-pandemic

Glastonbury cancelled. Over three months away, and with the postponement of Euro 2020 another indication we're in it for the long haul. In the next couple of weeks I reckon they'll postpone the Olympics.

OneOffDave wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:07 pm

lpm wrote: Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:16 am
I really don't understand your point. Unless we get more beds, we are going to be treating people in tents with no running water or heating. That is the path we are locked into. This first April-June wave could easily peak at 50,000 critical cases. It's either accept Grade C beds now, or hold out waiting for the ideal Grade A beds and then watch the army breaking into the Bensons warehouse and commandeering all their mattresses.

We can't keep thinking in old United Kingdom terms, about sophisticated hospitals with ideal beds and fully trained ICU nurses and the best ventilators ever made, all efficiently acquired. Policy makers must adjust fast to Pandemic Kingdom needs - substandard beds, new nurses trained to deal with only a single task for a single disease, ventilators that don't meet regulations and have a higher breakdown rate.

Do you know in my 15 years of emergency planning experience I'd never thought of any of this!

It's not about ideal beds, it's about beds that won't cause people actual harm. There will be ceilings of care, there will be people who can't be saved, there will be issues but half-arsed solutions will make things worse rather than better. It's no good putting people into settings that will result in then surviving corona virus but dying months later of something that was done to them during their 'care'. There are plans for staff/patient ratios in ICUs etc to be varied and non-ICU staff to work under supervision of specialised staff.

Which specific task will these "single use nurses" be used for?

I suggest you actually read all the existing pandemic planning guidance

On a slightly different topic - ventilators - it appears from the New Statesman that reading the pandemic planning guidance reveals a lack of planning for ventilators, even though it was identified as a deficiency in 2016.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/h ... t-pandemic

In October 2016 the UK government ran a national pandemic flu exercise, codenamed Exercise Cygnus. ... the then chief medical officer Sally Davies commented on what she had learnt from it in December 2016.

One conclusion was that Britain, as Davies put it, faced the threat of “inadequate ventilation” in a future pandemic.

The government’s roadmap for how to respond to a coronavirus-like pandemic has long been available online, and the three key documents – the 70-page “Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy”, 78-page “Health and Social Care Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response” and 88-page “Pandemic Influenza Response Plan” – were published in 2011, 2012 and 2014 respectively. These plans were tested and failed, yet these documents were not rewritten or revised.

It underlines that the work that people like OOD do when we are not in crisis is remarkably important, and he is probably extremely overloaded now dealing with the consequences of poor planning decisions taken by others.

So thank you Dave. Keep well. And more power to your elbow.

Some good-ish news.

Got an email form Sainsburys this morning. Summarising from memory - They're making the first hour of opening for vulnerable/elderly shoppers only (something our local Co-op had signs up for last night too), prioritising delivery slots for the vulnerable/elderly from next week, closing instore deli counters and the like so they can move more staff to shelf-stacking to cover shortages quicker etc, and also expanding click-and-collect so people can just pull up in the car park and pick up shopping. Which might be ok-ish for those self-isolating who don't have anyone to pick stuff up for them.

I almost emailed that last one as a suggestion yesterday. It's nice to see that someone in Sainsburys is working on sensible solutions. Not sure how they'll identify 'elderly & vulnerable' customers, but at least they're doing something.

raven wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:44 pm Some good-ish news.

Got an email form Sainsburys this morning. Summarising from memory - They're making the first hour of opening for vulnerable/elderly shoppers only (something our local Co-op had signs up for last night too), prioritising delivery slots for the vulnerable/elderly from next week, closing instore deli counters and the like so they can move more staff to shelf-stacking to cover shortages quicker etc, and also expanding click-and-collect so people can just pull up in the car park and pick up shopping. Which might be ok-ish for those self-isolating who don't have anyone to pick stuff up for them.

I almost emailed that last one as a suggestion yesterday. It's nice to see that someone in Sainsburys is working on sensible solutions. Not sure how they'll identify 'elderly & vulnerable' customers, but at least they're doing something.

Iceland are doing something similar too, I think. Ocado are sensibly encouraging people to use their delivery slots to pool shopping with neighbours - I've made the offer to our street's support group to share our precious slot this Saturday, though no-one's taken me up on it yet.

Also, lots of small local businesses round 'ere are doing things - no doubt partly to help themselves survive but I'm all for it and it'll benefit everyone. Local farm shop is leaving a box of groceries outside their door for self-isolating friend to do a drive-by collection. A couple of local cafes are doing local delivery service, which we'll try to support for some of our lunches, I think. And local specialist cheese/wine shop & deli is also doing local deliveries, as well as all of the above offering to take payment over the phone and do at-the-shop-door handovers for people who want to take away rather than be delivered to.

The stock exchanges are currently like an unsecured load on an airplane - now actively unhelpful.

They will be shut down sooner rather than later. If anyone needs to cash in shares, don't delay.

School closures: 'Unlikely' England won't follow suit

Schools in Scotland and Wales closing by end of the week - it seems unlikely Cobra won't take the same decision for England this afternoon

Eurovision’s off. f.ck sake.

JellyandJackson wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pm Eurovision’s off. f.ck sake.

honestly, not sure how i'll cope

Stephanie wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:11 pm

JellyandJackson wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pm Eurovision’s off. f.ck sake.

honestly, not sure how i'll cope

I hear Graham Norton is livid

raven wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:44 pm Some good-ish news.

Got an email form Sainsburys this morning. Summarising from memory - They're making the first hour of opening for vulnerable/elderly shoppers only (something our local Co-op had signs up for last night too), prioritising delivery slots for the vulnerable/elderly from next week, closing instore deli counters and the like so they can move more staff to shelf-stacking to cover shortages quicker etc, and also expanding click-and-collect so people can just pull up in the car park and pick up shopping. Which might be ok-ish for those self-isolating who don't have anyone to pick stuff up for them.

I almost emailed that last one as a suggestion yesterday. It's nice to see that someone in Sainsburys is working on sensible solutions. Not sure how they'll identify 'elderly & vulnerable' customers, but at least they're doing something.

Only flaw in their plan is that pensioners can't use their free bus passes first thing. One local bus company has said they'll accept them anytime. The other has said they want to protect the elderly, so keeping them off rush hour buses is for their own good!

mediocrity511 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:13 pm

raven wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:44 pm Some good-ish news.

Got an email form Sainsburys this morning. Summarising from memory - They're making the first hour of opening for vulnerable/elderly shoppers only (something our local Co-op had signs up for last night too), prioritising delivery slots for the vulnerable/elderly from next week, closing instore deli counters and the like so they can move more staff to shelf-stacking to cover shortages quicker etc, and also expanding click-and-collect so people can just pull up in the car park and pick up shopping. Which might be ok-ish for those self-isolating who don't have anyone to pick stuff up for them.

I almost emailed that last one as a suggestion yesterday. It's nice to see that someone in Sainsburys is working on sensible solutions. Not sure how they'll identify 'elderly & vulnerable' customers, but at least they're doing something.

Only flaw in their plan is that pensioners can't use their free bus passes first thing. One local bus company has said they'll accept them anytime. The other has said they want to protect the elderly, so keeping them off rush hour buses is for their own good!

If everyone's working from home is there going to be a rush hour?

Gentleman Jim wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm School closures: 'Unlikely' England won't follow suit

Schools in Scotland and Wales closing by end of the week - it seems unlikely Cobra won't take the same decision for England this afternoon

Well thank god the schools didn't shut down last week, those extra few days spreading the virus were vital, I imagine every single lesson in every classroom was absolutely outstanding this week in this all-important "three-quarters the way through the Spring Term" period.

Gentleman Jim wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:12 pm

Stephanie wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:11 pm

JellyandJackson wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pm Eurovision’s off. f.ck sake.

honestly, not sure how i'll cope

I hear Graham Norton is livid

And this year had the best entry evvvaaaahhh!

mediocrity511 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:13 pm

raven wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:44 pm Some good-ish news.

Got an email form Sainsburys this morning. Summarising from memory - They're making the first hour of opening for vulnerable/elderly shoppers only (something our local Co-op had signs up for last night too), prioritising delivery slots for the vulnerable/elderly from next week, closing instore deli counters and the like so they can move more staff to shelf-stacking to cover shortages quicker etc, and also expanding click-and-collect so people can just pull up in the car park and pick up shopping. Which might be ok-ish for those self-isolating who don't have anyone to pick stuff up for them.

I almost emailed that last one as a suggestion yesterday. It's nice to see that someone in Sainsburys is working on sensible solutions. Not sure how they'll identify 'elderly & vulnerable' customers, but at least they're doing something.

Only flaw in their plan is that pensioners can't use their free bus passes first thing. One local bus company has said they'll accept them anytime. The other has said they want to protect the elderly, so keeping them off rush hour buses is for their own good!

Seems to vary area by area - my Oyster 60+ card is valid at all times on TfL services, though not until after 0930 on National rail.

Potential for a London only lockdown.

No travel within the city, no entering/leaving.

Prepare to act soon if you wish to enter/leave without being part of a mad rush.

JQH wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:19 pm

mediocrity511 wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:13 pm

raven wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:44 pm Some good-ish news.

Got an email form Sainsburys this morning. Summarising from memory - They're making the first hour of opening for vulnerable/elderly shoppers only (something our local Co-op had signs up for last night too), prioritising delivery slots for the vulnerable/elderly from next week, closing instore deli counters and the like so they can move more staff to shelf-stacking to cover shortages quicker etc, and also expanding click-and-collect so people can just pull up in the car park and pick up shopping. Which might be ok-ish for those self-isolating who don't have anyone to pick stuff up for them.

I almost emailed that last one as a suggestion yesterday. It's nice to see that someone in Sainsburys is working on sensible solutions. Not sure how they'll identify 'elderly & vulnerable' customers, but at least they're doing something.

Only flaw in their plan is that pensioners can't use their free bus passes first thing. One local bus company has said they'll accept them anytime. The other has said they want to protect the elderly, so keeping them off rush hour buses is for their own good!

Seems to vary area by area - my Oyster 60+ card is valid at all times on TfL services, though not until after 0930 on National rail.

It's up to councils. Nottingham used to have it valid at all times, but reduced that as part of budget cuts.

Gentleman Jim wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm School closures: 'Unlikely' England won't follow suit

Schools in Scotland and Wales closing by end of the week - it seems unlikely Cobra won't take the same decision for England this afternoon

f.cking double negatives! You almost gave me heart attack there.

Announcement at 5 (about schools, not my heart attack)

badger wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:57 pm

Gentleman Jim wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm School closures: 'Unlikely' England won't follow suit

Schools in Scotland and Wales closing by end of the week - it seems unlikely Cobra won't take the same decision for England this afternoon

f.cking double negatives! You almost gave me heart attack there.

Announcement at 5 (about schools, not my heart attack)

Direct quote from "Ms Unbiased" at the BBC. Blame her, not me

I do wish the BBC would be better than the Tabloids but....

"Man in his 40's Youngest coronavirus death" as a headline.
Turns out he had MND and in 2018 had been given 2 years to live.
OK, covid may have hastened his death and I feel sorry for his family, but that headline is just scaremongering

Gentleman Jim wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:03 pm I do wish the BBC would be better than the Tabloids but....

"Man in his 40's Youngest coronavirus death" as a headline.
Turns out he had MND and in 2018 had been given 2 years to live.
OK, covid may have hastened his death and I feel sorry for his family, but that headline is just scaremongering

OTOH, I think some people are not taking it seriously because it won't affect people their age. Reminding them that, even if they're fine, their friend with MND or asthma or decades of smoking under their belt could be at risk might be useful and timely. Young kids are going to lose their parents over this.