Scrutable

I've been setting my heartbeat to Betfair this afternoon. He has mostly been at 1.2-1.33 (5/1-3/1 on), with a wobble to 1.4 (5/2 on, Trump at 2/1 against) about three hours ago. Right now it's 1.2 for Biden, 4.5 (=7/2 against) for Trump.

Apparently in the early hours of the morning Biden started out hot favourite, then went out to 3.5 (5/2 against) at one point, before becoming favourite again around midday UK time today. I imagine a lot of people who otherwise trade stocks or futures have been enjoying all this.

All the online bookies seem to have the same odds, not surprising really as it's so easy to flip from site to site to get a better price. A bit different from bookies at the racecourse where you have to rush round in the last few minutes before the off.

Biden is over 60k votes ahead in Michigan, and over a point clear of Trump. They're at 99% reporting.

Biden has won Michigan. It'll be called soon.

Thank f.ck

Excuse the ignorance, what state is Detroit in? Is it Michigan? Only asking because Trump supporters are protesting that they should stop the vote there.

Grumble wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:08 pm Excuse the ignorance, what state is Detroit in? Is it Michigan? Only asking because Trump supporters are protesting that they should stop the vote there.

Yes it’s in Michigan

Michigan. The motor city. Panic in Detroit.

Betting markets have Biden at 7-1 on.

Just listening to Biden's announcement. I can't recall having really listened to him before, but "sleepy Joe" does seem an accurate nickname, I'm sorry to say.

CNN has called Michigan.

They don’t have Arizona yet though others do.

Taking both Arizona and Michigan, Biden just needs Nevada.

Is there any reason to doubt Nevada? It doesn’t seem to have been discussed much.

CNN projecting Michigan for Biden.

In Virginia, the state constitutional amendment to establish a nonpartisan redistricting commission appears to be winning handily. Which isn't strictly speaking good for Democrats, who will thereby lose their gerrymandering power. But it's good for democracy with a lower case d. I think. I hope.

bolo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:32 pm In Virginia, the state constitutional amendment to establish a nonpartisan redistricting commission appears to be winning handily. Which isn't strictly speaking good for Democrats, who will thereby lose their gerrymandering power. But it's good for democracy with a lower case d. I think. I hope.

Both parties indulge in gerrymandering I assume?

Brightonian wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:23 pm CNN projecting Michigan for Biden.

Amazing. If only there had been some other post to tell us this we could have known a few minutes earlier.

Bewildered wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:39 pm

Brightonian wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:23 pm CNN projecting Michigan for Biden.

Amazing. If only there had been some other post to tell us this we could have known a few minutes earlier.

Sorry our posts crossed.

Lol you both posted in the same minute, calm down.

I get all my news from Scrutable. First with the news, all day every day.

Fox News called Michigan too now.

If vodka drinking hackers from an unknown country had hacked Florida's polling systems and changed numbers, would we be able to tell?

I seem to recall there's some statistics thing that can demonstrate figures are invented. Anything like that? Would there be artefacts around the faked data that could be detected?

Does anyone know the answer to my Nevada question?

Is it basically over now?

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:53 pm If vodka drinking hackers from an unknown country had hacked Florida's polling systems and changed numbers, would we be able to tell?

I seem to recall there's some statistics thing that can demonstrate figures are invented. Anything like that? Would there be artefacts around the faked data that could be detected?

Benford's law, and of course our own Steamy may be able to advise too.

We've discussed Nevada earlier.

Tiny Biden lead of about 10k.

Remaining mail ballots lean towards Democrats. The margin will grow.

Trump isn't making any attempt to claim it.

No new Nevada data till noon eastern Thursday.

Georgia :

Trump lead eroded to 67k.

Slowly and surely heading the right way, but will Biden run out of road first?

Brightonian wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:22 pm Betting markets have Biden at 7-1 on.

10-1 on now.

Brightonian wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:22 pm Just listening to Biden's announcement. I can't recall having really listened to him before, but "sleepy Joe" does seem an accurate nickname, I'm sorry to say.

He might well be an awful President, by the standards of actual Presidents (i.e., the first 44). I don't care. I don't care about the Senate not going blue either. Really all I care about now is the executive branch restoring proper oversight of Federal institutions. (A bonus would be most of the Trump family going to jail --- which the FBI and judges will now be able to achieve without interference.)

No wait, Nevada have said they'll release more data later today.

lpm wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:57 pm We've discussed Nevada earlier.

Tiny Biden lead of about 10k.

Remaining mail ballots lean towards Democrats. The margin will grow.

Trump isn't making any attempt to claim it.

No new Nevada data till noon eastern Thursday.

Thanks

Grumble wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:34 pm

bolo wrote: Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:32 pm In Virginia, the state constitutional amendment to establish a nonpartisan redistricting commission appears to be winning handily. Which isn't strictly speaking good for Democrats, who will thereby lose their gerrymandering power. But it's good for democracy with a lower case d. I think. I hope.

Both parties indulge in gerrymandering I assume?

Yes. Perhaps the Rs are more aggressive about it, but don't ask me to back that up with evidence because it's just my impression.