Scrutable

Brightonian wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:20 am Glastonbury cancelled. Over three months away, and with the postponement of Euro 2020 another indication we're in it for the long haul. In the next couple of weeks I reckon they'll postpone the Olympics.

The thing is, the immediate reason for Glasto's cancellation is that they can't prepare for the event. They may be entirely unrealistic in thinking things might improve enough by summer that it could go ahead, but it's the problems now which forced them to cancel.

And yeah, I really can't see the Olympics going ahead on schedule but that's such a massive deal they'll be trying to find a way to make some version of it happen.

Martin Y wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:16 pm

Brightonian wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:20 am Glastonbury cancelled. Over three months away, and with the postponement of Euro 2020 another indication we're in it for the long haul. In the next couple of weeks I reckon they'll postpone the Olympics.

The thing is, the immediate reason for Glasto's cancellation is that they can't prepare for the event. They may be entirely unrealistic in thinking things might improve enough by summer that it could go ahead, but it's the problems now which forced them to cancel.

This is exactly why we cancelled our theatre tours. We couldn't see a way to make the preparations without contravening the restrictions being put in place.

Add to that, it's clear the self-isolation will be in place for a long time, even if there's some semblance of a return to anything like normal life, so we couldn't see a way around keeping our actors working if one of them fell ill (given that they live like a family on the road).

Martin Y wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:16 pm

Brightonian wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:20 am Glastonbury cancelled. Over three months away, and with the postponement of Euro 2020 another indication we're in it for the long haul. In the next couple of weeks I reckon they'll postpone the Olympics.

The thing is, the immediate reason for Glasto's cancellation is that they can't prepare for the event. They may be entirely unrealistic in thinking things might improve enough by summer that it could go ahead, but it's the problems now which forced them to cancel.

And yeah, I really can't see the Olympics going ahead on schedule but that's such a massive deal they'll be trying to find a way to make some version of it happen.

The world will need to come together in global events after the pandemic is called over. Hold it next year as a uniting celebration.

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:28 pm Potential for a London only lockdown.

No travel within the city, no entering/leaving.

Prepare to act soon if you wish to enter/leave without being part of a mad rush.

My daughter, who lives in London, cancelled her trip to me for Mother's Day. This was last week. She is well prepared and I've fully agreed with her.

JellyandJackson wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pm Eurovision’s off. f.ck sake.

Iceland won anyway before it even started.

Gentleman Jim wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:50 pm School closures: 'Unlikely' England won't follow suit

Schools in Scotland and Wales closing by end of the week - it seems unlikely Cobra won't take the same decision for England this afternoon

Or Norn Ireland which is a political and ideological decision beloved by the DUP. Feckers.

Schools closed until further notice from Friday. Apart from children of essential workers.

purplehaze wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:10 pm

JellyandJackson wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:10 pm Eurovision’s off. f.ck sake.

Iceland won anyway before it even started.

Good point.

I am not filled with confidence by Gavin Williamson’s statement that the curve is accelerating faster than expected.

We shall wait for the weekend to do anything, because it's not like cases could double in the meantime, right, guys?...guys?

EACLucifer wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:41 pm We shall wait for the weekend to do anything, because it's not like cases could double in the meantime, right, guys?...guys?

It's an exponential rise.

There is no testing.

The maths is simple even for me, who only studied it at GCSE level (got a B) at the age of 40.

EACLucifer wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:41 pm We shall wait for the weekend to do anything, because it's not like cases could double in the meantime, right, guys?...guys?

I know - it's almost as though they are trying to sabotage any confidence in their handling.

Anywa

JellyandJackson wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:25 pm I am not filled with confidence by Gavin Williamson’s statement that the curve is accelerating faster than expected.

Well it has to get from 4-weeks behind Italy to 12 days behind.

Meanwhile Trump has ordered hospital ships to help - they're "big white ships with red crosses"

I still can't quite believe I heard even him say that.

In Ireland the limit on contactless is going to increase from €30 to €50. I'm hoping retailers and/or banks just press a button somewhere instead of having to alter individual card readers etc. And the Bank of Ireland (a commercial bank, not the equivalent of the B of E) is waiving its transaction charge (which apparently is only one cent, didn't realise it was so low, can stop worrying if a coffee shop loses out when buying a €2.50 espresso by card instead of cash).

EACLucifer wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:41 pm We shall wait for the weekend to do anything, because it's not like cases could double in the meantime, right, guys?...guys?

Glad you said this. I interpreted "from Friday" as "closed on Friday and thereafter" Apparently not. As you say, why the f.ck wait? I mean, given the timing of the announcement, they probably have to open tomorrow to let the kids pick up all their stuff. But why open on Friday? Madness

The UK has an Army Corps of Engineers, right? The Royal Engineers? Do they have bulldozers, builders, teams all ready to roll, able to build a 500 bed Treatment Centre in a couple of days?

US GDP forecast from JP Morgan:

Q1: -4%
Q2: -14%
Q3: +8%
Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5%

This obviously assumes a big bounce back in 3 months when everything is back to normal...

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:48 pm The UK has an Army Corps of Engineers, right? The Royal Engineers? Do they have bulldozers, builders, teams all ready to roll, able to build a 500 bed Treatment Centre in a couple of days?

We do, but better to approach and building company.

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:48 pm The UK has an Army Corps of Engineers, right? The Royal Engineers? Do they have bulldozers, builders, teams all ready to roll, able to build a 500 bed Treatment Centre in a couple of days?

They could be used, though it might be a better idea to use a construction company.

In China they just requisitioned building like hotels or sports arenas. If they are empty anyway that would be easiest.

Yes, but I think Johnson might actually take action if he could get a photo shoot of him driving an army bulldozer. He won't get off his lazy arse to order a construction company to work.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:10 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:48 pm The UK has an Army Corps of Engineers, right? The Royal Engineers? Do they have bulldozers, builders, teams all ready to roll, able to build a 500 bed Treatment Centre in a couple of days?

They could be used, though it might be a better idea to use a construction company.

In China they just requisitioned building like hotels or sports arenas. If they are empty anyway that would be easiest.

I think I said upthread that schools would likely be available.

jimbob wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:15 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:10 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:48 pm The UK has an Army Corps of Engineers, right? The Royal Engineers? Do they have bulldozers, builders, teams all ready to roll, able to build a 500 bed Treatment Centre in a couple of days?

They could be used, though it might be a better idea to use a construction company.

In China they just requisitioned building like hotels or sports arenas. If they are empty anyway that would be easiest.

I think I said upthread that schools would likely be available.

Yes, looks like they will be.

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:55 pm US GDP forecast from JP Morgan:

Q1: -4%
Q2: -14%
Q3: +8%
Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5%

This obviously assumes a big bounce back in 3 months when everything is back to normal...

Luckily once we are back to normal the economy can look forward to a time of quiet stability ... as we sever our ties with our largest market, unpick supply chains 40 years in the making, desperately try and squeeze years'-worth of no-deal preparations into a couple of weeks and reforge from scratch our relationships with all our major trading partners as they also emerge blinking into the sunshine.

Any confirmation yet of Johnson promising "to die in a ditch" rather than seek to extend the transition period beyond December 2020? I don't think anything else could reassure the markets more.

Certainly the money the treasury probably planned to spend shoring up the country post brexit is now likely being spent before brexit.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:10 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:48 pm The UK has an Army Corps of Engineers, right? The Royal Engineers? Do they have bulldozers, builders, teams all ready to roll, able to build a 500 bed Treatment Centre in a couple of days?

They could be used, though it might be a better idea to use a construction company.

In China they just requisitioned building like hotels or sports arenas. If they are empty anyway that would be easiest.

It was the Royal Engineers who built the three Ebloa treatment centres in Sierra Leone but that took two weeks per centre and they didn't have to be particularly weather tight.

Hotels are the most likely option as there's privacy. plenty of toilets, power, heat, light, an larger rooms to have ICU type services in. I suspect your limiting factor will be staffing

I think it would be easier to put partition walls in a sports hall than drag ICU kit into hotel rooms.

I'll let you know when the hospital in the Fiera di Milano is set up.