Scrutable

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

All this talk about "escalation" (and, yesterday, "revenge", as in "Russia may now drop chemical weapons on Odesa as revenge for Moskva") seems to me to be very un-military. A statement like Russia's own "If Ukraine bombs targets in Russia we will target their command and control structures" implies that the only reason that they aren't bombing the sh.t out of the government quarter in Kyiv is out of some sense of gentlemanly obligation. I presume the main reason they aren't doing that is that they don't think that the Ukrainian defence minister is currently going to work in his swanky 50m² office suite in the centre of town every morning.

sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:19 pm

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

All this talk about "escalation" (and, yesterday, "revenge", as in "Russia may now drop chemical weapons on Odesa as revenge for Moskva") seems to me to be very un-military. A statement like Russia's own "If Ukraine bombs targets in Russia we will target their command and control structures" implies that the only reason that they aren't bombing the sh.t out of the government quarter in Kyiv is out of some sense of gentlemanly obligation. I presume the main reason they aren't doing that is that they don't think that the Ukrainian defence minister is currently going to work in his swanky 50m² office suite in the centre of town every morning.

See also these and think about the earlier claims that Russia was planning false flag border attacks

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share

Russian investigators say that Ukraine carried out air strikes on a residential area in Russia earlier today.

Officials say two low-flying military helicopters equipped with heavy arms attacked the town of Klimovo, injuring seven people including a child and damaging six houses.

Reports of the attack – which has not been independently verified – came after Moscow announced it would bomb targets in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine if Ukrainian forces continued to attack its territory.

Because Russia hadn't already been doing that

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:01 pm

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

Considering what the Russians have done to Ukraine I think the only way Ukraine could be deemed to be escalating this conflict would be for them to nuke Russia. They're the defenders. Hitting any Russian assets with any non-WMD weapon seems fair game to me.

If the Russians think it is escalatory...

Russians are pretending it didn't even happen.

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:01 pm

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

Considering what the Russians have done to Ukraine I think the only way Ukraine could be deemed to be escalating this conflict would be for them to nuke Russia. They're the defenders. Hitting any Russian assets with any non-WMD weapon seems fair game to me.

If the Russians think it is escalatory, then we are ratcheting up to nuclear conflict. The West (EU/NATO, whatever) needs to figure out how to de-escalate this conflict. There must be some way to get Russia back to the bargaining table. Putin is like a cornered rat, it is dangerous to push him too far.

They don't think that. They *claim* that, which is different.

Putin has done this before. Every retaliation no matter how mild, he's claimed as an escalation. Including expelling diplomats for actually planning the murder of British citizens.

He's also claimed that supplying Ukraine with weapons was an escalation, and when the West did so anyway, he did nothing.

shpalman wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:28 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:01 pm

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

Considering what the Russians have done to Ukraine I think the only way Ukraine could be deemed to be escalating this conflict would be for them to nuke Russia. They're the defenders. Hitting any Russian assets with any non-WMD weapon seems fair game to me.

If the Russians think it is escalatory...

Russians are pretending it didn't even happen.

This. They've already escalated as far as they easily can against Ukraine. To escalate further risks bringing in even more western support for Ukraine. Russia has reasons to be very wary of further escalation.

jimbob wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:29 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:01 pm

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

Considering what the Russians have done to Ukraine I think the only way Ukraine could be deemed to be escalating this conflict would be for them to nuke Russia. They're the defenders. Hitting any Russian assets with any non-WMD weapon seems fair game to me.

If the Russians think it is escalatory, then we are ratcheting up to nuclear conflict. The West (EU/NATO, whatever) needs to figure out how to de-escalate this conflict. There must be some way to get Russia back to the bargaining table. Putin is like a cornered rat, it is dangerous to push him too far.

They don't think that. They *claim* that, which is different.

Putin has done this before. Every retaliation no matter how mild, he's claimed as an escalation. Including expelling diplomats for actually planning the murder of British citizens.

He's also claimed that supplying Ukraine with weapons was an escalation, and when the West did so anyway, he did nothing.

He has a red line somewhere, we don't know where it is. Why would he reveal that? Part of the strategy is to keep it obscure.
We know the line is there and we know what happens if it is crossed, and it will be horrible.

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:51 pm

jimbob wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:29 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:01 pm

If the Russians think it is escalatory, then we are ratcheting up to nuclear conflict. The West (EU/NATO, whatever) needs to figure out how to de-escalate this conflict. There must be some way to get Russia back to the bargaining table. Putin is like a cornered rat, it is dangerous to push him too far.

They don't think that. They *claim* that, which is different.

Putin has done this before. Every retaliation no matter how mild, he's claimed as an escalation. Including expelling diplomats for actually planning the murder of British citizens.

He's also claimed that supplying Ukraine with weapons was an escalation, and when the West did so anyway, he did nothing.

He has a red line somewhere, we don't know where it is. Why would he reveal that? Part of the strategy is to keep it obscure.
We know the line is there and we know what happens if it is crossed, and it will be horrible.

And it's not going to be Ukraine sinking a ship using Ukrainian-built weapons which Russia has said was only sunk by an explosion.

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:51 pm

jimbob wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:29 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:01 pm

If the Russians think it is escalatory, then we are ratcheting up to nuclear conflict. The West (EU/NATO, whatever) needs to figure out how to de-escalate this conflict. There must be some way to get Russia back to the bargaining table. Putin is like a cornered rat, it is dangerous to push him too far.

They don't think that. They *claim* that, which is different.

Putin has done this before. Every retaliation no matter how mild, he's claimed as an escalation. Including expelling diplomats for actually planning the murder of British citizens.

He's also claimed that supplying Ukraine with weapons was an escalation, and when the West did so anyway, he did nothing.

He has a red line somewhere, we don't know where it is. Why would he reveal that? Part of the strategy is to keep it obscure.
We know the line is there and we know what happens if it is crossed, and it will be horrible.

Well apparently it hasn’t been crossed yet and he’s still levelled cities and used rape as a weapon of war on a grand scale so…….

shpalman wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:28 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:01 pm

TopBadger wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:48 pm Just heard on the news some reporter saying that, if Ukraine did hit this ship, that it's an escalatory step...

Considering what the Russians have done to Ukraine I think the only way Ukraine could be deemed to be escalating this conflict would be for them to nuke Russia. They're the defenders. Hitting any Russian assets with any non-WMD weapon seems fair game to me.

If the Russians think it is escalatory...

Russians are pretending it didn't even happen.

They must be very embarrassed. They aren't going to admit it, but I am sure they are planning even worse things.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:54 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:51 pm

jimbob wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:29 pm

They don't think that. They *claim* that, which is different.

Putin has done this before. Every retaliation no matter how mild, he's claimed as an escalation. Including expelling diplomats for actually planning the murder of British citizens.

He's also claimed that supplying Ukraine with weapons was an escalation, and when the West did so anyway, he did nothing.

He has a red line somewhere, we don't know where it is. Why would he reveal that? Part of the strategy is to keep it obscure.
We know the line is there and we know what happens if it is crossed, and it will be horrible.

Well apparently it hasn’t been crossed yet and he’s still levelled cities and used rape as a weapon of war on a grand scale so…….

So we need to get him back to the table, before he takes that last step.

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:57 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:54 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:51 pm

He has a red line somewhere, we don't know where it is. Why would he reveal that? Part of the strategy is to keep it obscure.
We know the line is there and we know what happens if it is crossed, and it will be horrible.

Well apparently it hasn’t been crossed yet and he’s still levelled cities and used rape as a weapon of war on a grand scale so…….

So we need to get him back to the table, before he takes that last step.

By thrashing his armed forces.

Putin isn't dangerous because he's cornered, he's dangerous because he believes he can get away with whatever f.cking sh.t he wants.

shpalman wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:08 pm Putin isn't dangerous because he's cornered, he's dangerous because he believes he can get away with whatever f.cking sh.t he wants.

Yes

shpalman wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:08 pm Putin isn't dangerous because he's cornered, he's dangerous because he believes he can get away with whatever f.cking sh.t he wants.

I mean what's he going to do, bomb Kyiv? Attack local government buildings with cruise missiles? Destroy entire cities? Anyone with a brain knows he's done those not because of provocation, but because he could. He is entirely capable to fabricate pretexts, and has done so.

And if its escalation against NATO countries we are talking about, he's not holding back out of some sense of gentlemanly decency. He already considers us the enemy, his propagandists go on about it constantly - indeed they have a particular fascination with Britain. He is holding back from escalating against NATO out of fear of what the response would be, just as he did not hold back against Ukraine as he thought he could get away with it.

Grumble wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:04 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:57 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:54 pm

Well apparently it hasn’t been crossed yet and he’s still levelled cities and used rape as a weapon of war on a grand scale so…….

So we need to get him back to the table, before he takes that last step.

By thrashing his armed forces.

Pyrrhic victory.
We will all be vapourized.

shpalman wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:08 pm Putin isn't dangerous because he's cornered, he's dangerous because he believes he can get away with whatever f.cking sh.t he wants.

Both.There has to be push back, but just enough to make him think twice. If he feels truly threatened he will resort to the (literal not metaphoric) nuclear option.

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:50 pm

shpalman wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:08 pm Putin isn't dangerous because he's cornered, he's dangerous because he believes he can get away with whatever f.cking sh.t he wants.

Both.There has to be push back, but just enough to make him think twice. If he feels truly threatened he will resort to the (literal not metaphoric) nuclear option.

So long as NATO doesn't try to threaten him with personal destruction, by invading and aiming for regime change in Russia (which it won't), Putin has shown every indication that he just bluffs

jimbob wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 10:54 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:50 pm

shpalman wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:08 pm Putin isn't dangerous because he's cornered, he's dangerous because he believes he can get away with whatever f.cking sh.t he wants.

Both.There has to be push back, but just enough to make him think twice. If he feels truly threatened he will resort to the (literal not metaphoric) nuclear option.

So long as NATO doesn't try to threaten him with personal destruction, by invading and aiming for regime change in Russia (which it won't), Putin has shown every indication that he just bluffs

I hope you are right.

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:47 pm

Grumble wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:04 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 8:57 pm

So we need to get him back to the table, before he takes that last step.

By thrashing his armed forces.

Pyrrhic victory.
We will all be vapourized.

Don't believe everything you think

Trinucleus wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 1:25 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:47 pm

Grumble wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:04 pm

By thrashing his armed forces.

Pyrrhic victory.
We will all be vapourized.

Don't believe anything you think

FTFY.

Trinucleus wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 1:25 pm

Herainestold wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:47 pm

Grumble wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 9:04 pm

By thrashing his armed forces.

Pyrrhic victory.
We will all be vapourized.

Don't believe everything you think

Good rule for everybody.

Physicist Richard Feynman once said, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.”

I’m actually shocked even after all that’s happened.

Journalist verified an intercepted phone call in which a Russian soldier is told by his wife that it’s ok for him to rape Ukrainian women as long as he wears a condom.
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1514 ... RgA3KFXTTA

There are Unconfirmed reports that the Russian Federation is preparing to Formally Declare War on Ukraine in response to the Sinking of the Russian Black Sea’s Flag-Ship “Moskva”, this would allow the Russian Government to begin Mass Conscription as well as Economic War Actions.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 2272585730

Not sure how that would play at home. "50 days into the special military operation and Ukraine has committed an act of war by our ship accidentally sinking - BTW, it's time for the Draft... don't dodge it"

The Soviet mothers of troops posted Afghanistan played a part in bringing down the Soviet Union, there are already a similar number in 50 days compared to the 10 years. And in a smaller country, with leakier media control.

jimbob wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 8:23 pm https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 0227258573

tweet deleted.

Gfamily wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 8:25 pm

jimbob wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 8:23 pm https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 0227258573

tweet deleted.

Fixed it.

Lost the last zero
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 2272585730