Scrutable

jimbob wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 8:23 pm

There are Unconfirmed reports that the Russian Federation is preparing to Formally Declare War on Ukraine in response to the Sinking of the Russian Black Sea’s Flag-Ship “Moskva”, this would allow the Russian Government to begin Mass Conscription as well as Economic War Actions.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status ... 2272585730

Not sure how that would play at home. "50 days into the special military operation and Ukraine has committed an act of war by our ship accidentally sinking - BTW, it's time for the Draft... don't dodge it"

The Soviet mothers of troops posted Afghanistan played a part in bringing down the Soviet Union, there are already a similar number in 50 days compared to the 10 years. And in a smaller country, with leakier media control.

The playbook could be - we are at war with NATO, this is World War 3, be ready to sacrifice your lives for the motherland.

Just as over 20 million did in in World War 2.

Beau of the Fifth Column on Putin's purging of "the fifth service" (organisation devoted to keeping former Soviet republics in Russia's sphere of influence)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liCWOXetZFk

jimbob wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:07 pm Beau of the Fifth Column on Putin's purging of "the fifth service" (organisation devoted to keeping former Soviet republics in Russia's sphere of influence)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liCWOXetZFk

There were lots of reports in the early days of saboteurs, but if they were expecting the equivalent of a few battalions and got a few squads then he’s right.

Grumble wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:46 pm

jimbob wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:07 pm Beau of the Fifth Column on Putin's purging of "the fifth service" (organisation devoted to keeping former Soviet republics in Russia's sphere of influence)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liCWOXetZFk

There were lots of reports in the early days of saboteurs, but if they were expecting the equivalent of a few battalions and got a few squads then he’s right.

Russian disinformation indicated that there would be more support for the invasion. I read some stuff that said Ukrainian generals and local authorities would defect to the Russians immediately. Totally wrong. I thought it was plausible. I was duped.

I love it when people trace a ‘fact’ back to its rather dubious source: https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/ ... Uk7jhI0gnA

Reports that the Moskva was carrying two nuclear warheads aren’t based upon a reliable source.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 4:06 am I love it when people trace a ‘fact’ back to its rather dubious source: https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/ ... Uk7jhI0gnA

Reports that the Moskva was carrying two nuclear warheads aren’t based upon a reliable source.

Its missiles were anti-shipping missiles, that class of warship was designed to attack surface ships. It wouldn't make sense for them to have nuclear warheads.

Herainestold wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 4:54 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 4:06 am I love it when people trace a ‘fact’ back to its rather dubious source: https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/ ... Uk7jhI0gnA

Reports that the Moskva was carrying two nuclear warheads aren’t based upon a reliable source.

Its missiles were anti-shipping missiles, that class of warship was designed to attack surface ships. It wouldn't make sense for them to have nuclear warheads.

Certainly, and from little acorns grow widely shared tweets citing ‘intel sources’ https://twitter.com/wardcarroll/status/ ... Uk7jhI0gnA

And alarmist headlines:

Horror as Putin's doomed Russian navy warship 'was carrying nukes' before being destroyed
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/15 ... k-war-ship

Interesting video from the Perun* guy again. This time on the economics of it, should this turn into a long war.

The TL;DR is that if Ukraine is willing to continue the fight and if the West is willing to take a small slap in the face, Russian is going to get a hard kick to the groin economically (his words). Russia's economy is tiny in comparison to 'us' and is shrinking, every step they take to shore up the rouble and their stock market in the short term has severe longer term economic consequences. Ukraine is very f.cked in the short term, GDP down by 50%, and with 10% depopulation, but a supportive West willing to underwrite their small economy (some of which is already happening) and a continued supply of arms and other resources can keep them running continuously. A Marshall plan for the Ukraine would be essential at the end of it.

*The Australian whose day job is military capability planning, but used to post video game reviews before all this crap.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:06 am

Herainestold wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 4:54 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 4:06 am I love it when people trace a ‘fact’ back to its rather dubious source: https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/ ... Uk7jhI0gnA

Reports that the Moskva was carrying two nuclear warheads aren’t based upon a reliable source.

Its missiles were anti-shipping missiles, that class of warship was designed to attack surface ships. It wouldn't make sense for them to have nuclear warheads.

Certainly, and from little acorns grow widely shared tweets citing ‘intel sources’ https://twitter.com/wardcarroll/status/ ... Uk7jhI0gnA

And alarmist headlines:

Horror as Putin's doomed Russian navy warship 'was carrying nukes' before being destroyed
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/15 ... k-war-ship

It was intended to have nuclear weapons, just as RN frigates of the same age would have the capability, but the RN wouldn't comment on whether any ship was carrying them, and indeed most of the crew didn't know whether they were.

A lot of reports right now of retreating Russians deliberately leaving mines, grenades and other booby traps, in many cases set up to target civilians, including in civilian houses.

There are times when I wished I believed in hell.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 7:20 pm I’m actually shocked even after all that’s happened.

Journalist verified an intercepted phone call in which a Russian soldier is told by his wife that it’s ok for him to rape Ukrainian women as long as he wears a condom.
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1514 ... RgA3KFXTTA

There's a lot of reports of rape, targetting women and children, and one can assume, given Russian soldiers treatment of their own comrades in hazing, and by the involvement of Kadyrov's thugs, that there is sexual violence directed at men as well.

Some of the incidents definitely cross the line of rape as a deliberate weapon of war and genocide, not just unchecked abuses by soldiers.

I've been reluctant to post some of the reports, because there is a difficult balance between on the one hand exposing the atrocities, but also offering some privacy to the victims and avoiding traumatising those reading, as it is an inevitably traumatic issue.

I'm pleased to note Germany is sending somewhere between one and two billion in military aid to Ukraine.

For context, that's between eight and seventeen days worth of gas payments, in a war that's over fifty days old.

And it's not only Germany that's at fault. It's best to look at my posts on Germany as using Germany as a case study. For example France has also been abysmal on military aid, and Macron's calls to Putin haven't helped in the slightest, and have seen Macron using what is effectively Kremlin rhetoric (ie describing Russia and Ukraine as fraternal nations). That said, France's natural gas imports per capita aren't much more than half Germany's.

The idea of organising massive military aid to Ukraine through the EU may be difficult due to Orban's alignment with Russia.

And is Germany still blocking the sale of old Leopard 1s? Last time I saw them mentioned, they were, and the excuse of retaining them for the Bundeswehr doesn't apply here. I know Leopard 1s aren't exactly modern or compatible with Ukrainian logistics, but they could be deployed in the west to defend Odesa or the Belarusian border to free up Ukraine's existing tanks.

Head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk republic says the remaining Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are nationalist units rather than regular forces and don't intend to surrender and "that is why they are to be eliminated".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share

I don't know what that gains or loses in translation but it sounds an awful lot like "take no prisoners" and a call for summary executions.

Zelensky seems to agree as he says "I want to say that the elimination of our military, our guys, will put an end to all negotiations."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share

Martin Y wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 7:45 pm Head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk republic says the remaining Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are nationalist units rather than regular forces and don't intend to surrender and "that is why they are to be eliminated".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share

I don't know what that gains or loses in translation but it sounds an awful lot like "take no prisoners" and a call for summary executions.

Zelensky seems to agree as he says "I want to say that the elimination of our military, our guys, will put an end to all negotiations."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share

It doesn't seem like there is much negotiating going on now, but it is unclear who stopped it.Has the Ukrainian position hardened because of atrocities like Bucha, or is Russia angry about losing their flagship? Is it Ukraine that should be pressured or is it Russia?

History rhyming and all that, a thread on the Russians in the Crimean War.

I've moved posts on German energy policy over to this thread: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=3293

Its a complex topic that deserves a thread of its own.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/15 ... _Kc98SAiyw

Liveuamap

Bodies of former vice-president of Gazprombank Vladislav Avayev, his wife and daughter was found in his residence in Moscow in suspected murder-suicide https://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2022/18 ... -vladislav #Russia

Gazprombank is a key bank in Kremlin's gas-for-rubles scheme

More purging

And the commander of the Black Sea Fleet apparently arrested

FSB arrests the commander of the Black Sea fleet vice admiral Igor Ossipov. Obviously for the bad weather and an accidental fire on board of Moskva. 8th general out of commission by action in this war.

https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/ ... 0288551939

You wonder at what point do the leaders responsible for prosecuting this war realise that they'd be better off acting against Putin than against Ukraine.

TopBadger wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:20 am You wonder at what point do the leaders responsible for prosecuting this war realise that they'd be better off acting against Putin than against Ukraine.

My feeling for some time.

To get to high levels in Russian society, one would need to be ruthless and capable at internal politics.

Seeing Putin purging contemporaries, for things that all they would have been doing, must concentrate the mind.

I thought May the 9th parade was meant to be about beating nazis, not copying them.





Images from here

Admittedly, it's been turned into something of a war cult, but even so...

Has the origin of the Z thing ever been satisfactorily explained? It's clearly caught on as a logo, but that doesn't seem to have been its original purpose.

Sciolus wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 1:10 pm Has the origin of the Z thing ever been satisfactorily explained? It's clearly caught on as a logo, but that doesn't seem to have been its original purpose.

I'm guessing it's just a marking to identify their kit from very similar looking Ukrainian ones

Like the inverted V on coalition vehicles in the Gulf War

Sciolus wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 1:10 pm Has the origin of the Z thing ever been satisfactorily explained? It's clearly caught on as a logo, but that doesn't seem to have been its original purpose.

It seems to have been an identification thing, possibly specific to where they were staged or who was operating them, several other marks have also been used, including a V.

There's been various attempts to claim it has a meaning, including by pro-invasion Russians who are using it about as eagerly as Nazis used the swastika, but it appears to be just a simple symbol that's easy* to paint and doesn't mean anything in Russian

*Though at least one vehicle has been spotted with a backwards Z crossed out before a second attempt was made.

Putin's awarded one of the units responsible for Bucha the honourary title of "guards". Given they got their arses kicked back across the border, what are they being rewarded for if not the war crimes?