COVID-19

[bagpuss]

Not sure if there's anything here that people don't already have access to but just had an email from Tableau with links to base dashboards and, more usefully, COVID-19 datasets. Scroll down for the direct data links...

https://www.tableau.com/covid-19-corona ... -resources

[Gentleman Jim]

Potential for a London only lockdown.
No travel within the city, no entering/leaving.
Prepare to act soon if you wish to enter/leave without being part of a mad rush.

Yeah, they're being careful not to rule it out so it's probably on the cards soon, I assume the M25 will be the boundary? We're just inside it (Uxbridge) and are as prepared as we can reasonably be but it'll scupper my plan to drop off supplies to my self-isolating dad in Worcestershire. Hopefully home deliveries will resolve their problems soon.

Could be interesting for towns where the M25 actually passes though it

[basementer]

Not sure if there's anything here that people don't already have access to but just had an email from Tableau with links to base dashboards and, more usefully, COVID-19 datasets. Scroll down for the direct data links...

https://www.tableau.com/covid-19-corona ... -resources

Thanks!

[Bird on a Fire]

State of emergency for two weeks. No unnecessary travel etc. Fun times.

[TimW]

That looks like a fantastic idea. Chelsea FC have done similar, and in response to that, the NHS asked for more of that sort of thing. Surely we should be trying to requisition hotels in the relevant areas, or offering funding for them to convert? Hell, it might even keep people employed. Hotel cleaners could potentially retrain fairly easily into staff lodgings cleaners.

I heard that the Cunard liners have cancelled their round-the-world cruises (understandable) and offloaded remaining passengers, and are returning to Southampton empty.

Maybe they've been requisitioned?

[basementer]

NZ borders are now closed to all incoming travellers except citizens and permanent residents, and the government advice to Kiwis is simply: do not travel.

[sTeamTraen]

It seems that UK schools will remain open as sort-of-daycare centres for the children of "key workers". I suspect that term is easier to say than to define.

Doctor? Check.
Nurse? Check.
Hospital cleaner - NHS employee? Check.
Hospital cleaner - Agency staff member? Er, yeah, check, gotta keep the hospitals clean, and we outsourced most of it.
Cleaning agency roster manager? No, office job. Oh, wait, we need them to dispatch the cleaners, check.
Cleaning agency accountant and IT staff? No. What? Cleaners need to be paid? Oh. Um. Check, I suppose. Can't they work at home? What? "F-a-x", what's that? Didn't we make them illegal in the NHS just last year? Oh. Really?

Gosh, this is jolly hard. I know, let's bring in a points-based system. Bit different from the immigration one: If you earn under £18,000 a year you're probably doing something vital. Don't forget to f.ck off on 31 December 2020 though, there's a good Eastern European johnny or johnette.

[Opti]

The guardian has produced a "helpful" working from home guide.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -isolating

Tl;Dr version.
Take the thousands of pounds of cutting-edge IT devices you presumably have in the cupboard under the stairs, just behind the pile of old issues of People's Friends you've been stockpiling for just this moment.
Convert one of your many spare rooms (or artisanal shepherd's hut) into a home office, make sure your desk and chair are ergonomic from the range of options you have.
Deal with bored children by buying a neon "keep out" sign. Simples.

He says hunched up over the kitchen table on an old laptop with a noisy 6yo running around him.

What is this 'working from home' that you you talk about. I am intrigued and wish to subscribe to your newsletter. Whatever that is.

[mediocrity511]

It seems that UK schools will remain open as sort-of-daycare centres for the children of "key workers". I suspect that term is easier to say than to define.

Doctor? Check.
Nurse? Check.
Hospital cleaner - NHS employee? Check.
Hospital cleaner - Agency staff member? Er, yeah, check, gotta keep the hospitals clean, and we outsourced most of it.
Cleaning agency roster manager? No, office job. Oh, wait, we need them to dispatch the cleaners, check.
Cleaning agency accountant and IT staff? No. What? Cleaners need to be paid? Oh. Um. Check, I suppose. Can't they work at home? What? "F-a-x", what's that? Didn't we make them illegal in the NHS just last year? Oh. Really?

Gosh, this is jolly hard. I know, let's bring in a points-based system. Bit different from the immigration one: If you earn under £18,000 a year you're probably doing something vital. Don't forget to f.ck off on 31 December 2020 though, there's a good Eastern European johnny or johnette.

It gets even more complicated as it seems that it's only for families where both parents are keyworkers or single parent households.

[El Pollo Diablo]

I am not filled with confidence by Gavin Williamson’s statement that the curve is accelerating faster than expected.

It's f.cking not though, is it? The exponential trendline has been pretty thoroughly steady for the last couple of weeks; in fact if anything it's slowed down a fraction.

[El Pollo Diablo]

US GDP forecast from JP Morgan:

Q1: -4%
Q2: -14%
Q3: +8%
Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5%

This obviously assumes a big bounce back in 3 months when everything is back to normal...

Is that from a starting index (ie add the percentages together to get a year-end figure), or each quarter following on from the last (i.e multiply (1+Qx) together)? Because either way I can't get to an index of .985 from those numbers.

[OneOffDave]

Indeed. Using existing buildings makes more sense than starting from an empty field. What about places like Earl's Court or the NEC?

Unfortunately Earl's Court is now a hole in the ground!

The big issue with places like the NEC is the ceiling height and heating. Very hard to keep spaces like that warm enough. Maintaining patient dignity and safety can be difficult too

[OneOffDave]

Potential for a London only lockdown.
No travel within the city, no entering/leaving.
Prepare to act soon if you wish to enter/leave without being part of a mad rush.

Yeah, they're being careful not to rule it out so it's probably on the cards soon, I assume the M25 will be the boundary? We're just inside it (Uxbridge) and are as prepared as we can reasonably be but it'll scupper my plan to drop off supplies to my self-isolating dad in Worcestershire. Hopefully home deliveries will resolve their problems soon.

That will be fun as I'm on call on Saturday and have to drive in to the office on Sunday

[sTeamTraen]

US GDP forecast from JP Morgan:

Q1: -4%
Q2: -14%
Q3: +8%
Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5%

This obviously assumes a big bounce back in 3 months when everything is back to normal...

Is that from a starting index (ie add the percentages together to get a year-end figure), or each quarter following on from the last (i.e multiply (1+Qx) together)? Because either way I can't get to an index of .985 from those numbers.

I think that each quarter's figures are year on year relative to the same quarter of the previous year, not the previous quarter, so they each contribute 1/4 of the annual figure. Applying, that I got this:
(1 - (0.04/4)) * (1 - (0.14/4)) * (1 + (0.08/4)) * (1 + (0.04/4))
= 0.99 * 0.965 * 1.02 * 1.01
= 0.9842

[JQH]

Profiteering appears to have started. One of our local butchers charged £7.99/kg for leg of lamb last week. Today it's £9.99. Told MrsH we will be going veggy if this continues.

[El Pollo Diablo]

US GDP forecast from JP Morgan:
This obviously assumes a big bounce back in 3 months when everything is back to normal...

Is that from a starting index (ie add the percentages together to get a year-end figure), or each quarter following on from the last (i.e multiply (1+Qx) together)? Because either way I can't get to an index of .985 from those numbers.

I think that each quarter's figures are year on year relative to the same quarter of the previous year, not the previous quarter, so they each contribute 1/4 of the annual figure. Applying, that I got this:
(1 - (0.04/4)) * (1 - (0.14/4)) * (1 + (0.08/4)) * (1 + (0.04/4))
= 0.99 * 0.965 * 1.02 * 1.01
= 0.9842

Ah, cheers.

[bjn]

NZ borders are now closed to all incoming travellers except citizens and permanent residents, and the government advice to Kiwis is simply: do not travel.

Same with Oz. My sister is flying back to Perth tonight via Singapore. Stressed about the flights and connections.

[JellyandJackson]

I am not filled with confidence by Gavin Williamson’s statement that the curve is accelerating faster than expected.

It's f.cking not though, is it? The exponential trendline has been pretty thoroughly steady for the last couple of weeks; in fact if anything it's slowed down a fraction.

What could he have meant then?
It’s the “faster than expected bit” that’s worried me most. I mean, we all know case numbers are going to go up...

[Vertigowooyay]

COVID-19 challenge!

How many seconds of this can you bear to watch? I can get about 5 seconds in before my arse is so tightly clenched I'm in danger of being turned inside out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLPmMHX6eEU

[shpalman]

I am not filled with confidence by Gavin Williamson’s statement that the curve is accelerating faster than expected.

It's f.cking not though, is it? The exponential trendline has been pretty thoroughly steady for the last couple of weeks; in fact if anything it's slowed down a fraction.

What could he have meant then?
It’s the “faster than expected bit” that’s worried me most. I mean, we all know case numbers are going to go up...

He was either not expecting to be exponential, for some reason, or he is surprised at what an exponential looks like.

Neither inspires confidence.

[JellyandJackson]

It's f.cking not though, is it? The exponential trendline has been pretty thoroughly steady for the last couple of weeks; in fact if anything it's slowed down a fraction.

What could he have meant then?
It’s the “faster than expected bit” that’s worried me most. I mean, we all know case numbers are going to go up...

He was either not expecting to be exponential, for some reason, or he is surprised at what an exponential looks like.

Neither inspires confidence.

Ah, gotcha. Thank you.

[hakwright]

Anyone able to point me toward evidence of the length of time someone will be infectious before they are aware of any symptoms?

Quite literally asking for a friend.

From the recent Imperial college paper:
"Infectiousness is assumed to occur from 12 hours prior to the onset of symptoms for those that are symptomatic and from 4.6 days after infection in
those that are asymptomatic"

Not necessarily the definitive word (references in the paper may well provide source for those assumptions), but probably a good bet.

Howard

[Matatouille]

He was either not expecting to be exponential, for some reason, or he is surprised at what an exponential looks like.

Neither inspires confidence.

Or attempting to manage expectations and deflect blame away from the government for the coming shitstorm. The data and models that they have to look a few days out are probably (hopefully!) more comprehensive than those available to the rest of society, so if it is predicting things starting to break....

[jimbob]

A colleague's girlfriend has all the symptoms - luckily they're both in their 20s.

But of course she's not been tested, so doesn't count towards the statistics.

[JQH]

AAAAAGH!

Encountered a post on FB claiming placing cut unions around the house will absorb viruses from the air and stop you caching the disease. Her mum did it during the Hong Kong flu epidemic you see so it obviously works.

Reported it as Fake News as there is no Wilfully Endangering Public Health option.