Scrutable

calmooney wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:42 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:28 pm Potential for a London only lockdown.
No travel within the city, no entering/leaving.
Prepare to act soon if you wish to enter/leave without being part of a mad rush.

Yeah, they're being careful not to rule it out so it's probably on the cards soon, I assume the M25 will be the boundary? We're just inside it (Uxbridge) and are as prepared as we can reasonably be but it'll scupper my plan to drop off supplies to my self-isolating dad in Worcestershire. Hopefully home deliveries will resolve their problems soon.

bagpuss wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:48 am Not sure if there's anything here that people don't already have access to but just had an email from Tableau with links to base dashboards and, more usefully, COVID-19 datasets. Scroll down for the direct data links...

https://www.tableau.com/covid-19-corona ... -resources

EACLucifer wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:37 pm That looks like a fantastic idea. Chelsea FC have done similar, and in response to that, the NHS asked for more of that sort of thing. Surely we should be trying to requisition hotels in the relevant areas, or offering funding for them to convert? Hell, it might even keep people employed. Hotel cleaners could potentially retrain fairly easily into staff lodgings cleaners.

Little waster wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:34 am The guardian has produced a "helpful" working from home guide.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... -isolating

Tl;Dr version.
Take the thousands of pounds of cutting-edge IT devices you presumably have in the cupboard under the stairs, just behind the pile of old issues of People's Friends you've been stockpiling for just this moment.
Convert one of your many spare rooms (or artisanal shepherd's hut) into a home office, make sure your desk and chair are ergonomic from the range of options you have.
Deal with bored children by buying a neon "keep out" sign. Simples.

He says hunched up over the kitchen table on an old laptop with a noisy 6yo running around him.

sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:53 am It seems that UK schools will remain open as sort-of-daycare centres for the children of "key workers". I suspect that term is easier to say than to define.

Doctor? Check.
Nurse? Check.
Hospital cleaner - NHS employee? Check.
Hospital cleaner - Agency staff member? Er, yeah, check, gotta keep the hospitals clean, and we outsourced most of it.
Cleaning agency roster manager? No, office job. Oh, wait, we need them to dispatch the cleaners, check.
Cleaning agency accountant and IT staff? No. What? Cleaners need to be paid? Oh. Um. Check, I suppose. Can't they work at home? What? "F-a-x", what's that? Didn't we make them illegal in the NHS just last year? Oh. Really?

Gosh, this is jolly hard. I know, let's bring in a points-based system. Bit different from the immigration one: If you earn under £18,000 a year you're probably doing something vital. Don't forget to f.ck off on 31 December 2020 though, there's a good Eastern European johnny or johnette.

JellyandJackson wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:25 pm I am not filled with confidence by Gavin Williamson’s statement that the curve is accelerating faster than expected.

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:55 pm US GDP forecast from JP Morgan:

Q1: -4%
Q2: -14%
Q3: +8%
Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5%

This obviously assumes a big bounce back in 3 months when everything is back to normal...

AMS wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:14 pm
Indeed. Using existing buildings makes more sense than starting from an empty field. What about places like Earl's Court or the NEC?

calmooney wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:42 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:28 pm Potential for a London only lockdown.
No travel within the city, no entering/leaving.
Prepare to act soon if you wish to enter/leave without being part of a mad rush.

Yeah, they're being careful not to rule it out so it's probably on the cards soon, I assume the M25 will be the boundary? We're just inside it (Uxbridge) and are as prepared as we can reasonably be but it'll scupper my plan to drop off supplies to my self-isolating dad in Worcestershire. Hopefully home deliveries will resolve their problems soon.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:27 am

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:55 pm US GDP forecast from JP Morgan:

Q1: -4%
Q2: -14%
Q3: +8%
Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5%

This obviously assumes a big bounce back in 3 months when everything is back to normal...

Is that from a starting index (ie add the percentages together to get a year-end figure), or each quarter following on from the last (i.e multiply (1+Qx) together)? Because either way I can't get to an index of .985 from those numbers.

sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:33 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:27 am

lpm wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:55 pm US GDP forecast from JP Morgan:
This obviously assumes a big bounce back in 3 months when everything is back to normal...

Is that from a starting index (ie add the percentages together to get a year-end figure), or each quarter following on from the last (i.e multiply (1+Qx) together)? Because either way I can't get to an index of .985 from those numbers.

I think that each quarter's figures are year on year relative to the same quarter of the previous year, not the previous quarter, so they each contribute 1/4 of the annual figure. Applying, that I got this:
(1 - (0.04/4)) * (1 - (0.14/4)) * (1 + (0.08/4)) * (1 + (0.04/4))
= 0.99 * 0.965 * 1.02 * 1.01
= 0.9842

basementer wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:18 am NZ borders are now closed to all incoming travellers except citizens and permanent residents, and the government advice to Kiwis is simply: do not travel.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:23 am

JellyandJackson wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:25 pm I am not filled with confidence by Gavin Williamson’s statement that the curve is accelerating faster than expected.

It's f.cking not though, is it? The exponential trendline has been pretty thoroughly steady for the last couple of weeks; in fact if anything it's slowed down a fraction.

JellyandJackson wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:56 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:23 am

JellyandJackson wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:25 pm I am not filled with confidence by Gavin Williamson’s statement that the curve is accelerating faster than expected.

It's f.cking not though, is it? The exponential trendline has been pretty thoroughly steady for the last couple of weeks; in fact if anything it's slowed down a fraction.

What could he have meant then?
It’s the “faster than expected bit” that’s worried me most. I mean, we all know case numbers are going to go up...

shpalman wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:17 pm

JellyandJackson wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:56 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:23 am

It's f.cking not though, is it? The exponential trendline has been pretty thoroughly steady for the last couple of weeks; in fact if anything it's slowed down a fraction.

What could he have meant then?
It’s the “faster than expected bit” that’s worried me most. I mean, we all know case numbers are going to go up...

He was either not expecting to be exponential, for some reason, or he is surprised at what an exponential looks like.

Neither inspires confidence.

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:34 am Anyone able to point me toward evidence of the length of time someone will be infectious before they are aware of any symptoms?

Quite literally asking for a friend.

shpalman wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:17 pm
He was either not expecting to be exponential, for some reason, or he is surprised at what an exponential looks like.

Neither inspires confidence.