Scrutable

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 2:53 pm**

Little waster wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:57 pm It's tantric or something.

Tantrum, I predict.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:07 pm**

About 61 000 votes left to count in Georgia, Biden is about 19 000 behind.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:21 pm**

There will be more than that emerging from the woodwork, but that's enough for Biden to get ahead according to people who look at the detail by county.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:31 pm**

sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:36 pm As a citizen of the world, with no real interest in US domestic affairs, I would settle for Trump being gone and the institutions that make America work as a major world power getting back to normal, notable the DoJ and FBI. Getting rid of Trump means, first and foremost, getting rid of executive interference. If Trump goes to jail, it will be because Federal and State prosecutors establish a case against him. Many are surely itching to start doing so; Biden won't be issuing overt or clandestine orders about this, or naming his Attorney-General based on a commitment from the latter to Get Trump.

Obviously, as a person who believes in humanity, I would also like to see the Democrats control all of Congress and pass all kinds of progressive legislation. But in a sense, I want that just as much for the people of Brazil or Russia or Saudi Arabia, and I don't spend much time thinking about their internal politics. It seems inconsistent, at least, to worry about certain regressive aspects of American society while not saying much about the far bigger problems affecting far larger numbers of people around the world whose regimes are actively evil and corrupt.

Put another way, if Trump had died of COVID and the race had been between Biden and Pence, I would be very much hoping that Biden would win. But I wouldn't have been losing too much sleep about him not winning. Pence's attitude to politics is wrong in a normal way of being wrong, whereas Trump is wrong at a completely different level, and he surrounds himself with other of that ilk, like Giuliani, Bannon, and Miller.

To be fair, America is a cause of many of the hardships facing people around the world*. As far as that goes it doesn't really matter who is president, except in unusual cases (e.g. the Bush jr. administration was exceptionally destructive, in a variety of ways). Trump is unusual in the sense that he's like the portrait of Dorian Grey for the US.

* Not the only cause of course.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:35 pm**

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:07 pm About 61 000 votes left to count in Georgia, Biden is about 19 000 behind.

lpm wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:21 pm There will be more than that emerging from the woodwork, but that's enough for Biden to get ahead according to people who look at the detail by county.

It needs a split of 2:1 (40,000 for Biden to 21,000 for Trump). Let's hope they split the 9:1 way that from Pennsylvania that EPD cited from PA.

If Biden wins NV/AZ/GA/PA and Trump only gets Alaska, that would be 321:217. Surely that has to be game over? Trump will squeal for ever, but only the people who are prepared to go down with him would stick around then, shirley?

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:38 pm**

sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:35 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:07 pm About 61 000 votes left to count in Georgia, Biden is about 19 000 behind.

lpm wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:21 pm There will be more than that emerging from the woodwork, but that's enough for Biden to get ahead according to people who look at the detail by county.
It needs a split of 2:1 (40,000 for Biden to 21,000 for Trump). Let's hope they split the 9:1 way that from Pennsylvania that EPD cited from PA.

If Biden wins NV/AZ/GA/PA and Trump only gets Alaska, that would be 321:217. Surely that has to be game over? Trump will squeal for ever, but only the people who are prepared to go down with him would stick around then, shirley?

I think you've forgotten North Carolina there, which is probably in Trump's column.

306 is the best guess, I think, with Georgia's 16 votes very much in doubt.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:46 pm**

secret squirrel wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:31 pm To be fair, America is a cause of many of the hardships facing people around the world*. As far as that goes it doesn't really matter who is president, except in unusual cases (e.g. the Bush jr. administration was exceptionally destructive, in a variety of ways).

True, but then most of us are also to some extent complicit in that. Mrs sTeamTraen and I own a car, we eat meat, we own smartphones that use rare elements of unknown provenance, we buy products without checking if the palm oil they contain is ethically sourced. We probably consume the planet's resources more slowly than the average American, but not an order of magnitude more slowly. So in that sense America is the prime mover and leading exponent of the hardships facing people, not many of us are in a position to critique them.

Perhaps it's a generational thing, but I grew up understanding that while the US is sometimes a bit paranoid, when push comes to shove for the Western world, America would be there as part of the solution, not part of the problem. Biden won't be sending Christmas cards to Farage or Duterte, for example, and I suspect that neither would GW Bush (as an absolute minimum, there would have been people in his administration advising against it, without fear of being fired).

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:51 pm**

To pass the time... Why are we getting these constant updates of the score anyway? I mean, it makes for great entertainment, but if I was running the count I'd want it kept under wraps until it was final, just on a matter of principle --- and that's without the thought that if Biden looks like catching up, mobs of people will show up and intimidate the staff. I'm actually surprised that we haven't seen an armed assault on any of the counts yet, and presumably the Proud Boys also know where each state's Election Commissioner lives.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:17 pm**

sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:46 pm
secret squirrel wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:31 pm To be fair, America is a cause of many of the hardships facing people around the world*. As far as that goes it doesn't really matter who is president, except in unusual cases (e.g. the Bush jr. administration was exceptionally destructive, in a variety of ways).
True, but then most of us are also to some extent complicit in that. Mrs sTeamTraen and I own a car, we eat meat, we own smartphones that use rare elements of unknown provenance, we buy products without checking if the palm oil they contain is ethically sourced. We probably consume the planet's resources more slowly than the average American, but not an order of magnitude more slowly. So in that sense America is the prime mover and leading exponent of the hardships facing people, not many of us are in a position to critique them.

Perhaps it's a generational thing, but I grew up understanding that while the US is sometimes a bit paranoid, when push comes to shove for the Western world, America would be there as part of the solution, not part of the problem. Biden won't be sending Christmas cards to Farage or Duterte, for example, and I suspect that neither would GW Bush (as an absolute minimum, there would have been people in his administration advising against it, without fear of being fired).

Yes it's true the rest of the West is complicit. As for America being historically 'on our side', you should take into account that for parts of the 20th century, American war plans involved massive nuclear strikes against the USSR and China that would have dealt devastating collateral damage to nearby countries such as Germany and Finland, and they seriously thought about making a pre-emptive strike. It's always been America first. We are expendable.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:18 pm**

sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:35 pm Let's hope they split the 9:1 way that from Pennsylvania that EPD cited from PA.

Small point, but I cited the beeb, and was referring to Pennsylvania rather than the Press Association. Happy to clarify though.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:19 pm**

What's the chance of Trump being arrested once he's not president any more?

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:28 pm**

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:19 pm What's the chance of Trump being arrested once he's not president any more?

Well, he'll probably have to cut down on randomly shooting people on 5th Ave.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:40 pm**

Martin Y wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:28 pm
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:19 pm What's the chance of Trump being arrested once he's not president any more?
Well, he'll probably have to cut down on randomly shooting people on 5th Ave.

Wins the thread!

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:42 pm**

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:18 pm
sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:35 pm Let's hope they split the 9:1 way that from Pennsylvania that EPD cited from PA.
Small point, but I cited the beeb, and was referring to Pennsylvania rather than the Press Association. Happy to clarify though.

You did indeed. I was in a hurry and only saw a box with not "Beeb said", missing the handwritten label above it. Apologies.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:51 pm**

secret squirrel wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:17 pm As for America being historically 'on our side',

As an an aside, if you ever have a spare few minutes compare the different battle plans the US, UK and Canada drew up in case of a US-Canada war during the Interwar years.

Canada's plan involved using cavalry troops to harass across the border, create a buffer zone and then try to hang on until the Brits could ship in reinforcements via Halifax, NS to relieve them.

The US's plan was to use chemical weapons on the civilians of Halifax to depopulate the area and wipe out the garrison, seize the port and then deny it to the British forcing the Canadians to surrender. No-where in Canada's plans had they actually put any thought into defending Halifax.

The Brit's plan was to Spoiler:

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:54 pm**

David Perdue's vote has dropped to 49.997%, he's crossed the threshold for a senate run off. (according to The Guardian)

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:11 pm**

Nevada have finally updated the vote count.

It looks better for Biden now.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:12 pm**

Lovely chart of Georgia.

It's as close as a really close thing.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:23 pm**

Biden has widened his lead in Nevada to 12k.

ETA: Which is conveniently 1%. If it grows larger than that it's can't be put to a recount.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:29 pm**

It's not complete, but I like this tweet

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:33 pm**

lpm wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:12 pm Lovely chart of Georgia.

It's as close as a really close thing.

Flipping Georgia could have a huge psychological impact to the post-election narrative. I wonder whether Stacey Abrams might have a role in the new administration. There was a piece somewhere (538 site?) the other day saying how crucial she is to the Dems taking Georgia seriously as a prospect.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:59 pm**

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:19 pm What's the chance of Trump being arrested once he's not president any more?

I think there’s a few AG’s wanting a little chat about non-President related things even if he negotiated a pardon for all the sh.t he did as President.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:13 pm**

Georgia:

Left: 50,401
Trump lead: 13,540

Biden gets 63-37 and it's a tie. Georgia rules are that any tie in an election is not resolved by a coin toss but a dance-off to the song YMCA. Safe to say Trump wins that hands down, his YMCA dance is fab. So Biden needs to beat 63%.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:18 pm**

Nevada should be called. Not sure why AP and Edison are waiting.

Though as Arizona maybe shouldn't have been called by AP, it evens out.

Posted: **Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:38 pm**

Online betting market (well, Paddy Power at least) now has Biden 14-1 on.

Scrutable

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