Scrutable

By the way, someone has polled a 5 way GE race, including the Green and Libertarian attention seekers and Kanye West.

It looks like Kanye, and the G and L candidates pull 1 point from Trump, and none from Biden.

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/stat ... 70784?s=20

New senate poll in from th'Arizona - Mark Kelly 9 points ahead. No recent senate polls have shown him behind. The "tossup" currently listed here doesn't seem quite so tossed.

This Trump speech is INCREDIBLE.

An hour, rambling round in circles. Random trains of thought, constant repetition.

Isn't that every speech?

Yes, but hardly anyone actually listens to him speak for 52 minutes.

We always just get the edited highlights. The mad stuff gets cut from journalist reports, because they don't understand what Trump was attempting to say so can't precis it.

When you hear the whole thing it's a different experience.

At one point he said if you vote Biden the suburbs would be abolished, then said Biden would ban windows. While you're still figuring out why Trump thinks Biden will ban windows, Trump has moved on to saying under the Democrats all offices will be too cold in winter and everyone will have terrible eyesight. Then he's on to saying Biden's policy is to abolish the military and Venezuela took down a wall and so has no food, then jumps to saying his wall is nearly completed, then said twenty thousand people were going to tear down a statue but they didn't because nobody turned up to tear down the statue.

Journalists don't supply the repetitions, either. They condense and make it seem a single paragraph in a speech. What actually happens is Trump talks about something, then a few minutes later returns to it and says it all again, and then later a third time having forgotten he talked about it earlier.

For example:

At 7 mins:

As Vice President Biden was a leading advocate of the Paris Climate Accord, which was unbelievably expensive to our country. Would have crushed American manufacturers while allowing China... They took all of the advantage away from us. They took everything away... And it was going to cost us hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars for the privilege of being involved in the Paris Climate Accord. And you just have to look at what took place this year in Paris and France, where money was being sent to countries all over the world and the people of France didn’t want to take it. And they didn’t. And they did a lot of rioting. They had their taxes raised..

.
At 25 minutes:

He wants to reenter the unfair one sided Paris Climate Accord, which will destroy us at the expense of many other nations who benefit... would cripple American industry while greatly helping China. He wants to impose massive energy taxes and job crushing mandates to eliminate carbon from the United States economy. Let him define the word carbon because he won’t be able to...

At 41 minutes:

Rejoined Paris climate accord, and seek an even higher level of restrictions. Oh, I didn’t notice that. Oh, I see. So they want to rejoin the Paris climate accord and they want to seek an even higher level of... that basically means no windows, no nothing. It’s very hard to do. I tell people when they want to go into some of these buildings, “How are your eyes? Because they won’t be good in five years.” And I hope you don’t mind cold office space in the winter and warm office space in the summer, because your air conditioning is not the same as the good old days...

https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/do ... pt-july-14

Amazing.

Linking the Paris Climate Accord to yellow vests is especially wonderful.

I tried looking through for more gems but I quickly lost the ability to distinguish between different degrees of stupid.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:59 am Amazing.

Linking the Paris Climate Accord to yellow vests is especially wonderful.

I tried looking through for more gems but I quickly lost the ability to distinguish between different degrees of stupid.

It's impossible to parse. A disordered mind demonstrating the verbal equivalent of the drunkard's walk

A Washington Post ($) opinion:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... s-closing/

In the same week Trump reached the milestone of 20,000 false or misleading statements, as documented by The Post’s Fact Checker, the president seemed determined to recite them all in a single appearance. To call it stream-of-consciousness is too serene: Trump’s brain was shooting the rapids, hitting rocks, tumbling down falls.

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:51 am A Washington Post ($) opinion:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... s-closing/

In the same week Trump reached the milestone of 20,000 false or misleading statements, as documented by The Post’s Fact Checker, the president seemed determined to recite them all in a single appearance. To call it stream-of-consciousness is too serene: Trump’s brain was shooting the rapids, hitting rocks, tumbling down falls.

He alleged that Democratic mayors possibly “wouldn’t mind” if terrorists “blow up our cities.”

“We could go on for days,” he said after 40 minutes. Indeed, the only limitation was Trump’s, and his staff’s, imaginations.

This is a good one. The USA never gave the USA most favoured nation status.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1283394365092700162

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:37 pm This is a good one. The USA never gave the USA most favoured nation status.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1283394365092700162

My brain is starting to shut down now just from watching him.

In the middle of present hurlyburly Trump points out some Very Fine People he will defend:
Trump defends gun-toters

Missouri Gov. Mike Parson said Tuesday that President Trump would be “getting involved” in the case of the St. Louis couple who pointed guns at a group of protesters passing outside their home last month, and who are under review for criminal charges.

On Tuesday, both the president and Republican governor offered separate impassioned defenses of Mark and Patricia McCloskey, who went viral after brandishing guns at protesters on the private street outside their mansion on June 28.

Pennsylvania poll:

Biden +13 (53-40) for Registered Voters.

+7 to +10 for Likely Voters

Grumble wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:55 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:37 pm This is a good one. The USA never gave the USA most favoured nation status.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1283394365092700162

My brain is starting to shut down now just from watching him.

I don't understand why his family haven't staged some sort of intervention yet; a kindly suggestion that he starts looking at some nice care homes from those that love him ...

... oh yeah I forgot.

Little waster wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:11 pm

Grumble wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:55 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:37 pm This is a good one. The USA never gave the USA most favoured nation status.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1283394365092700162

My brain is starting to shut down now just from watching him.

I don't understand why his family haven't staged some sort of intervention yet; a kindly suggestion that he starts looking at some nice care homes from those that love him ...

... oh yeah I forgot.

Because as long as he keeps this up they can keep milking taxpayer money, and thus have a chance of inheriting something other than a contract hit from a disillusioned Moscow mobster.

Once he's not president any more he's either going to to Russia or to jail, which renders the question of geriatric care a bit moot.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:31 pm

Little waster wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:11 pm

Grumble wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:55 pm

My brain is starting to shut down now just from watching him.

I don't understand why his family haven't staged some sort of intervention yet; a kindly suggestion that he starts looking at some nice care homes from those that love him ...

... oh yeah I forgot.

Because as long as he keeps this up they can keep milking taxpayer money, and thus have a chance of inheriting something other than a contract hit from a disillusioned Moscow mobster.

Once he's not president any more he's either going to to Russia or to jail, which renders the question of geriatric care a bit moot.

I think senility is going to take him before he gets anywhere near jail. His decline is accelerating, and he's noticeably worse than even a month ago.

But would he admit it, or just bribe another doctor to say he's the sanest ex-president ever?

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:51 pm But would he admit it, or just bribe another doctor to say he's the sanest ex-president ever?

By November? Will he be able to consider that?

Of course his decline does mean that the senior GOP must be having to think what to do and when they can dump him. Dumping him too early could be difficult for them, as he still has rabid idiots in the party. Dumping him too late would also be a disaster.

And it's entirely self-inflicted.

They'll be propping him up on stage, using pre-recorded samples ala cassetteboy and administering electric shocks to fake movement before they admit there's anything wrong.

lpm wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 3:04 pm Pennsylvania poll:

Biden +13 (53-40) for Registered Voters.

+7 to +10 for Likely Voters

And with a sample that says it voted for Trump by 5 pts, when the actual PA result was +1. Obviously you can't use that to correct/unskew this poll, as there are several effects (shy Trump voters, as if a Trump voter wouldn't be in your face about it; "winning team" effect where people recall voting for the winner rather than who they voted for) with opposite signs and unknown magnitudes, but there's no real hint of bias in the sample.

jimbob wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:26 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:51 pm But would he admit it, or just bribe another doctor to say he's the sanest ex-president ever?

By November? Will he be able to consider that?

Of course his decline does mean that the senior GOP must be having to think what to do and when they can dump him. Dumping him too early could be difficult for them, as he still has rabid idiots in the party. Dumping him too late would also be a disaster.

And it's entirely self-inflicted.

It's possible they've already passed the "too late" point.

dyqik wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:59 pm

jimbob wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:26 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 4:51 pm But would he admit it, or just bribe another doctor to say he's the sanest ex-president ever?

By November? Will he be able to consider that?

Of course his decline does mean that the senior GOP must be having to think what to do and when they can dump him. Dumping him too early could be difficult for them, as he still has rabid idiots in the party. Dumping him too late would also be a disaster.

And it's entirely self-inflicted.

It's possible they've already passed the "too late" point.

Yes, it's also possible that the too-late point is before the too-early to not ruin ones political career by stabbing our "intensely masculine" leader in the back.


Also what happens if a candidate drops out or dies after the ballot has been finalised in every state?

jimbob wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 6:13 pm

dyqik wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:59 pm

jimbob wrote: Wed Jul 15, 2020 5:26 pm

By November? Will he be able to consider that?

Of course his decline does mean that the senior GOP must be having to think what to do and when they can dump him. Dumping him too early could be difficult for them, as he still has rabid idiots in the party. Dumping him too late would also be a disaster.

And it's entirely self-inflicted.

It's possible they've already passed the "too late" point.

Yes, it's also possible that the too-late point is before the too-early to not ruin ones political career by stabbing our "intensely masculine" leader in the back.


Also what happens if a candidate drops out or dies after the ballot has been finalised in every state?

They get elected anyway.

I'm sure the Americans have form for electing dead people.

Oh yes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Hof