Scrutable

Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 10:17 am Clearly they developed a mutually useful relationship such that Prigozhin was more useful alive than dead.

Maybe it's a "Brokeback Mountain" kinda thing? What's Russian for "I wish I knew how to quit you"

There... that's a mental image absolutely no one wanted.

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:13 pm Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

Indeed, I'm struggling to think of any leverage that couldn't be dealt with by the application of lethal force.

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:13 pm Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

I was thinking more in terms of "exposure that means that Putin won't ever be rehabilitated in the West, and sanctions will stay on Russia forever", or "exposure that will turn China against Russia", rather than internal Kompromat.

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:05 pm

IvanV wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 10:17 am Clearly they developed a mutually useful relationship such that Prigozhin was more useful alive than dead.

Maybe it's a "Brokeback Mountain" kinda thing? What's Russian for "I wish I knew how to quit you"

There... that's a mental image absolutely no one wanted.

That mental image has been around since the topless Putin on horseback photo.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:09 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:13 pm Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

I was thinking more in terms of "exposure that means that Putin won't ever be rehabilitated in the West, and sanctions will stay on Russia forever", or "exposure that will turn China against Russia", rather than internal Kompromat.

Something like Putin ordering a nerve agent attack in Britain that murders a British citizen?

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:16 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:09 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:13 pm Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

I was thinking more in terms of "exposure that means that Putin won't ever be rehabilitated in the West, and sanctions will stay on Russia forever", or "exposure that will turn China against Russia", rather than internal Kompromat.

Something like Putin ordering a nerve agent attack in Britain that murders a British citizen?

Something like that, with undeniable evidence that leads to significant political pressure and outrage. e.g. attacks directly targeted at US citizens in the US (as opposed to attacks directed at Russian dissident immigrants to a country where the ruling party is deeply in bed with Russian oligarchs).

Another option would be revelations that effectively dismantle Putin's influence network in the West - e.g. that certain politicians are working for him directly.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:09 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:13 pm Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

I was thinking more in terms of "exposure that means that Putin won't ever be rehabilitated in the West, and sanctions will stay on Russia forever", or "exposure that will turn China against Russia", rather than internal Kompromat.

Again, I come back to this though

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:07 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:13 pm Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

Indeed, I'm struggling to think of any leverage that couldn't be dealt with by the application of lethal force.

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:38 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:09 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:13 pm Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

I was thinking more in terms of "exposure that means that Putin won't ever be rehabilitated in the West, and sanctions will stay on Russia forever", or "exposure that will turn China against Russia", rather than internal Kompromat.

Again, I come back to this though

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:07 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:13 pm Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

Indeed, I'm struggling to think of any leverage that couldn't be dealt with by the application of lethal force.

We know that, but it's not currently leading to significant political pressure to investigate and dismantle Putin's influence networks. That can change with the right amount of outrage.

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 12:13 pm Kompromat has to be stuff nobody knows about. The entire Russian govt is organised crime.

There's nothing to expose that would worry Putin.

Perhaps not these days. And sufficiently in control of the media to laugh it off. But even now the Kremlin rubs people out who try to bring up evidence that the government are gangsters, if those people have sufficient credibility they are hard to ignore.

But back when he was trying to become president, and in early re-election campaigns, when his position was not so firmly cemented, it was apparently a sufficiently large liability to make it worthwhile quietly rubbing out quite a lot of people. Putin's rise was far from inevitable and hung on quite a few imponderables. We forget what a surprising and unknown person he was to become president when he was first elected.

As for poisoning "traitors" who ran away abroad, I suspect that's not a bad look with much of the local electorate.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:40 pm

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:38 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:09 pm

I was thinking more in terms of "exposure that means that Putin won't ever be rehabilitated in the West, and sanctions will stay on Russia forever", or "exposure that will turn China against Russia", rather than internal Kompromat.

Again, I come back to this though

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:07 pm

Indeed, I'm struggling to think of any leverage that couldn't be dealt with by the application of lethal force.

We know that, but it's not currently leading to significant political pressure to investigate and dismantle Putin's influence networks. That can change with the right amount of outrage.

My point is that how could Prigozhin keep that as a plausible threat if he's dead. Also, any damage from such revelations or attacks has to be counted against any damage from letting Prigozhin get away with his defiance.

Similarly, if he has gone back to Russia, what leverage has Putin got on him that he's willing to go into Putin's direct control?

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:01 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:40 pm

jimbob wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 1:38 pm

Again, I come back to this though

We know that, but it's not currently leading to significant political pressure to investigate and dismantle Putin's influence networks. That can change with the right amount of outrage.

My point is that how could Prigozhin keep that as a plausible threat if he's dead. Also, any damage from such revelations or attacks has to be counted against any damage from letting Prigozhin get away with his defiance.

Having evidence that will be released on your death is a pretty standard insurance policy.

I was just about to say the same thing.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:15 pm Having evidence that will be released on your death is a pretty standard insurance policy.

But has this ever happened?

In reality? Not in movies or books?

Any events in history where revelations have been triggered by a murder insurance policy?

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:31 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:15 pm Having evidence that will be released on your death is a pretty standard insurance policy.

But has this ever happened?

In reality? Not in movies or books?

Any events in history where revelations have been triggered by a murder insurance policy?

What would the answers to these question tell us?

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:32 pm What would the answers to these question tell us?

My suspicion is it's all bollocks, these insurance policies don't exist in real life.

I think Putin would laugh if you told him envelopes with Kompromat will be sent to every news organisation in 24 hours unless you are alive to stop it. He'd laugh, then gesture to a henchman who'd put a bullet in your head.

Prigozhin doesn't seem like a subtle kind of guy anyway.

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:46 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:32 pm What would the answers to these question tell us?

My suspicion is it's all bollocks, these insurance policies don't exist in real life.

I think Putin would laugh if you told him envelopes with Kompromat will be sent to every news organisation in 24 hours unless you are alive to stop it. He'd laugh, then gesture to a henchman who'd put a bullet in your head.

Prigozhin doesn't seem like a subtle kind of guy anyway.

It could also tell us that they are incredibly effective, so that they've never had to be triggered.

It's hard to imagine what sort of material would worry Putin.

Prigozhin dies, kompromat is released, Putin says it's fake, Russian media eagerly agrees it's fake and blames CIA or whoever, business as usual.

The only sort of thing that would matter would be a revelation that Putin somehow f.cked over all the other oligarchs. It's only compromising if it gets believed by people who might be able to do something about it.

Martin Y wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:09 pm It's hard to imagine what sort of material would worry Putin.

Prigozhin dies, kompromat is released, Putin says it's fake, Russian media eagerly agrees it's fake and blames CIA or whoever, business as usual.

The only sort of thing that would matter would be a revelation that Putin somehow f.cked over all the other oligarchs. It's only compromising if it gets believed by people who might be able to do something about it.

This is the reasoning that led me towards something affecting the west or China that leads to even heavier sanctions on Russia and the oligarchs.

lpm wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:46 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 4:32 pm What would the answers to these question tell us?

My suspicion is it's all bollocks, these insurance policies don't exist in real life.

I think Putin would laugh if you told him envelopes with Kompromat will be sent to every news organisation in 24 hours unless you are alive to stop it. He'd laugh, then gesture to a henchman who'd put a bullet in your head.

Prigozhin doesn't seem like a subtle kind of guy anyway.

Pretty much my reasoning

Martin Y wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:09 pm The only sort of thing that would matter would be a revelation that Putin somehow f.cked over all the other oligarchs.

Which he has done, as is well documented in Belton's book and is in general bleeding obvious. Oligarchs either have to pay court to Putin and supply him with lots of money, or else be sent to the lard mines/fall out of window.

IvanV wrote: Sat Jul 08, 2023 10:12 am

Martin Y wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:09 pm The only sort of thing that would matter would be a revelation that Putin somehow f.cked over all the other oligarchs.

Which he has done, as is well documented in Belton's book and is in general bleeding obvious. Oligarchs either have to pay court to Putin and supply him with lots of money, or else be sent to the lard mines/fall out of window.

Exactly, that's factored in. And it's hard to think of any revelation other than military secrets or numbered bank details that would have much effect and those could dealt with by killing Prigozhin

jimbob wrote: Sat Jul 08, 2023 2:03 pm

IvanV wrote: Sat Jul 08, 2023 10:12 am

Martin Y wrote: Fri Jul 07, 2023 5:09 pm The only sort of thing that would matter would be a revelation that Putin somehow f.cked over all the other oligarchs.

Which he has done, as is well documented in Belton's book and is in general bleeding obvious. Oligarchs either have to pay court to Putin and supply him with lots of money, or else be sent to the lard mines/fall out of window.

Exactly, that's factored in. And it's hard to think of any revelation other than military secrets or numbered bank details that would have much effect and those could dealt with by killing Prigozhin

A few other hypotheticals I can think of, that could be part of the insurance thing mentioned upthread: details of bank transfers to Western politicians or influential media persons, details of population scale attacks on other countries (at the extremely speculative fiction end of things, imagine if Putin was responsible for CoVID).

The likely alternative is that Putin needs Wagner as an independent military force to prevent coups from the military, while using the military to prevent coups from Wagner.

Or it's a lovers' tiff and they've kissed and made up. It's as likely as any other theory.