Scrutable

lpm wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:13 pm Georgia:

Left: 50,401
Trump lead: 13,540

Biden gets 63-37 and it's a tie. Georgia rules are that any tie in an election is not resolved by a coin toss but a dance-off to the song YMCA. Safe to say Trump wins that hands down, his YMCA dance is fab. So Biden needs to beat 63%.

sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:46 pm

lpm wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:13 pm Georgia:

Left: 50,401
Trump lead: 13,540

Biden gets 63-37 and it's a tie. Georgia rules are that any tie in an election is not resolved by a coin toss but a dance-off to the song YMCA. Safe to say Trump wins that hands down, his YMCA dance is fab. So Biden needs to beat 63%.

Woodchopper reported earlier that there were about 61,000 left to count and Trump led by 19,000. Assuming those are not just "about", that means that of 10,600 votes, 8,030 were for Biden (75.8%) and 2,570 for Trump. If the remainder split the same way, Biden would get 38,180 and Trump 12,220, meaning a Biden gain of 25,960 and victory by 12,420.

Where Trump’s Legal Maneuvering Stands

As we wait for results in a handful of states, the Trump campaign has been busy filing lawsuits alleging various kinds of voting-related misconduct and trying to intervene as a party in the Pennsylvania ballot deadline case at the Supreme Court. That might sound serious, but it’s important to remember that anyone can file a lawsuit, so the mere fact of bringing an issue to court doesn’t mean it’s a decisive issue — or even evidence of actual wrongdoing. So here’s an overview of where the litigation stands and what the outcome might be. In most cases, the issues that are being raised do not appear to be especially consequential, at least right now.

Pennsylvania

The Trump campaign and other Republicans have filed multiple lawsuits in Pennsylvania, claiming various kinds of election-related irregularities:

A lawsuit filed in state court by the Trump campaign claiming that observers were not able to “meaningfully” oversee the count, and asking for the count to be stopped. On Thursday, a state appellate court issued an order guaranteeing that GOP ballot observers can watch the process within six feet. The order did not stop the count in Philadelphia, however.
Another lawsuit filed in state court by the Trump campaign and the RNC that tries to move up the deadline for when mail-in voters with missing ID information would need to provide that information. Currently the deadline is Nov. 12, but the Trump campaign wants it to be changed to Nov. 9.
Another state court lawsuit filed by Pennsylvania Republican candidates and voters, involving ballots that were corrected during the initial ballot-processing (“pre-canvassing”) period on Nov. 3.
A federal case filed by a Republican candidate objecting to the process of “curing” or correcting problems with mail-in ballots in Montgomery County, just outside Philadelphia. At a hearing yesterday, the judge in the case seemed skeptical that the Republican claims had affected the integrity of the election, and in any case, a relatively small number of ballots (fewer than 100) appear to have been affected.
The Trump campaign has asked to intervene as a party in the Supreme Court litigation over Pennsylvania’s ballot-receipt deadline, which was extended to Friday by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has declined twice to overrule the deadline, but several conservative justices indicated that they might be willing to revisit the case, potentially throwing the validity of any ballots postmarked on Election Day that arrive in that three-day window into question. However, it’s also not clear whether a large number of ballots are actually arriving late — Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said on Wednesday that there are only “hundreds” so far.

Michigan

The Trump campaign is suing to stop the vote count in Michigan, claiming that it was not given access to observe the counting, and asking to review ballots that it was not able to witness. It’s not clear what the campaign is really trying to accomplish here, since Biden is leading in the state. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson also said that the claim “doesn’t really line up with the facts.”

Georgia

The Trump campaign and the Georgia GOP filed a lawsuit asking a judge in Chatham County to make sure that late-arriving ballots are being properly segregated from on-time ballots. (In Georgia, ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day to count.) The campaign claims that the county might be mishandling ballots, but this appears to be based on a single allegation from a Republican poll observer involving a small number of ballots. In any case, the lawsuit isn’t seeking to stop on-time ballots from being counted.
Wisconsin

The Trump campaign has indicated that it will file a formal recount request in Wisconsin — but this can’t happen until the last county has submitted its canvass to the state elections commission, which will happen sometime between Nov. 10 and 17. (And it’s worth mentioning here that recounts rarely reverse the outcome of elections — including in 2016, when Trump’s lead over Clinton was basically unchanged after a Wisconsin recount.)

Brightonian wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:37 pm Via Twitter:

lpm wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:00 pm Trump is going to announce his candidacy for the 2024 election.

Not because he will be a candidate, but because

(a) lot more "fund raising" from the suckers

(b) the criminal proceedings can then be cast as a political witchhunt against the opposition candidate

lpm wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:00 pm Trump is going to announce his candidacy for the 2024 election.

sTeamTraen wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:01 pm

lpm wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:00 pm Trump is going to announce his candidacy for the 2024 election.

This would be fantastic. Four years of the non-frootloop Republicans having to pretend that noise you can hear isn't a wailing loon locked in the cupboard.

Brightonian wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:37 pm Via Twitter:

lpm wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:59 pm Am I awful person because...

When I see someone on Twitter say "Oh f.ck, this looks really bad"...

And I have a surge of panic...

Then realise they are just talking about today's Covid death toll...

And I think thank god for that.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:00 pm I'm sure I've also seen research reported suggesting that 'psychopathy' / antisocial behavioural disorder is more common amongst surgeons and emergency medicine.

dyqik wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:55 pm

Brightonian wrote: Thu Nov 05, 2020 8:37 pm Via Twitter:

Pretty much confirming the stereotype of surgeons as arrogant individualistic glorified plumbers there.

Very very roughly, the complexity and degree of social interaction involved in the issues treated gets higher as you go down that list.