Scrutable

nekomatic wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:16 pm There’s been a hell of a lot of intemperate, scattergun badmouthing of anything that anyone connected with government is doing in relation to the crisis, coming from the Remain/previously-sensible-centre-left on twitter and facebook - lots of it from people who really should know better than to slate the chief medical officer for not acting as dramatically as (insert other country) (ignoring the other countries that are also not doing the dramatic thing), and I guess that leads to a bit of a backlash that ‘people shouldn’t play politics with’ the current events.


Plus, you know, who else is anyone going to vote for right now?

I’ve been calling a lot of people out over this. Asking why they think they know better than the 100s years worth of experience on these panels. And why they’re now not listening to experts after being so critical of Gove’s “people have had enough of experts” statement.

Yeah, I must admit I've been thinking the same.

tenchboy wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:06 pm

badger wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:43 pm Boomers I've spoken to are invoking what they see as the blitz spirit. If the bomb's got your name on it, there ain't much you can do about it.
I point out that they are also the bomb, as diplomatically as possible.

In other news, can someone explain to me why we are being advised not to visit places which aren't being advised to shut?

Should I go to the pub? Advice says "no".
Should the pub close? Advice says "no".
What's the thinking here?
Am I misunderstanding the advice?
No one is questioning Boris about this in press conferences, so I think I must be.

Spoke to someone yesty who had taken their car for an M.O.T. and whilst they were waiting, headed out across a few fields
to a pub he knew in the area for a spot of lunch. When he got there, he was the only one there, had the whole place to himself.
Speculation: So I conclude that Yes, you can go to the pub; but only if there are not any/many other people there: one per table, no cribbage, no bar billiards.

Great. Can you do the press conference tomorrow, please?

And in case LPM's post was a reply of sorts to my question, yes, Boris is unclear, but so in this case is DHSC and PHE.

I hope neko and puck don't think I'm slagging them (CMO, CSA) off, and I thought I was using critical thinking to interpret the advice, it's just my interpretation leads to a stalemate. BoJo, and Whitty and Sir Patrick were in super stern mode yesterday and today about the perils of not following their advice, but no one took them up on the fact that people are inclined to disregard stuff that doesn't make sense, and they certainly didn't offer any help or context to their contradictory advice. It was just "STOP GOING TO THE PUBS AND CAFES WE HAVEN'T SHUT"

Also when the WHO advice and the experience from several countries shows that early testing and quarantine is vital, and HMG is doing something else, and sending mixed messages about social distancing. I think it is reasonable to question whether the UK's policy is as good as it should.

nekomatic wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:16 pm There’s been a hell of a lot of intemperate, scattergun badmouthing of anything that anyone connected with government is doing in relation to the crisis, coming from the Remain/previously-sensible-centre-left on twitter and facebook - lots of it from people who really should know better than to slate the chief medical officer for not acting as dramatically as (insert almost every other country and the WHO) (ignoring the other countries that are also not doing the dramatic thing), and I guess that leads to a bit of a backlash that ‘people shouldn’t play politics with’ the current events.

FIFY

It's not just the chattering classes that have been sounding the alarm, though. One notable person that comes to mind is Professor Devi Sridhar, and the WHO were warning of dangerous complacency.

And there's the whole thing where the model the government's little clique did turn out to be wildly wrong - something that was apparent to anyone paying attention to the numbers needing intensive care in Italy, etc, days before the government U-turn. Again, it wasn't just the chattering classes or remain government critics saying this. I doubt many of the Italian doctors begging the world to take faster action have especially strong opinions on the details of British politics.

I really, really want the government to get this right, but there are just certain things they've said which haven't made any sense and don't fit with their own numbers. For example us being four weeks behind Italy when the stats say two weeks. Or the numbers doubling every four or five days when the stats say 2.8 days. Or the rate of spread accelerating when the increase in numbers given exponential growth being pretty steady for several days running. And if I'm wrong about these things because they're including things not in the official numbers, I think they should be open about what it is they're including.

So I question the optics, really - the comms, the coverage. I trust them to get their modelling right, I just wonder about whether there's any spin. The response I'm prepared to listen to others about, joining in where there seem to be obvious gaps.

Remember, Johnson is the man who said that the hero of Jaws was the mayor of the town, because he tried to keep the beach open.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:09 pm I really, really want the government to get this right, but there are just certain things they've said which haven't made any sense and don't fit with their own numbers. For example us being four weeks behind Italy when the stats say two weeks. Or the numbers doubling every four or five days when the stats say 2.8 days. Or the rate of spread accelerating when the increase in numbers given exponential growth being pretty steady for several days running. And if I'm wrong about these things because they're including things not in the official numbers, I think they should be open about what it is they're including.

So I question the optics, really - the comms, the coverage. I trust them to get their modelling right, I just wonder about whether there's any spin. The response I'm prepared to listen to others about, joining in where there seem to be obvious gaps.

Exactly.

And as we're talking about optics. How is a moderately uninformed person supposed to take social distancing seriously if they can see schools still open?

It's totally undermining their own message - regardless of the idea about the effectiveness of that taken in isolation.

Yes. The "Don't slate the CMO" argument would be fine if the WHO agreed with the CMO. But being an outlier from global advice raises huge worries - particularly when the govt maths seems awry vs numbers from other experts.

Meanwhile:-

Gfamily wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:46 pmI pointed out that the recording and the photo was taken before the crisis, and asked if he thought they would cut out scenes of the Queen VIc from Eastenders.

Mrs sTeamTraen had read that filming of EastEnders has stopped (it's doing her head in), so this will come to pass, in a trivial sense.

And the UK's deathrate trajectory is steeper than Italy's. Actions taken now aren't going to be effecting mortality for a couple of weeks; that's when those infected now will die. It is very possible we will see scenes as bad as, or worse than, those in Italy.

This is why everyone paying attention to how this was developing was so angry with the government; every dither and every delay has added to the burden the NHS will face before attempts to increase capacity can realistically take effect.

jimbob wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:12 pmAnd as we're talking about optics. How is a moderately uninformed person supposed to take social distancing seriously if they can see schools still open?

I have been told that there is footage from Italy of a dozen army trucks taking away the bodies that there is no capacity to bury in Bergamo (a fabulous city where I have given talks; when normality returns, go there with Ryanair and ignore the "Milan" in the airport name). If something similar happens in the UK it's going to be more optics than a very large pub. For 20 years after Jim Callaghan's "Winter of Discontent" the Tories taunted Labour with reminders of "the dead going unburied".

Gfamily wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:46 pm I posted a note on a S Wales FB group about the latest edition of Ramblings, which features part of a new waymarked route.
Ramblings.PNG

The first comment was along the lines of "what is the point of the government giving advice on the virus if people ignore it"

I asked what he meant, and the reply was "they're all close together, and being totally selfish and effectively saying "sod the NHS""

I pointed out that the recording and the photo was taken before the crisis, and asked if he thought they would cut out scenes of the Queen VIc from Eastenders.
He had the grace to remove his original comment.

Yeah people are quite upset at the thought of other people putting lives at risk, which is happening a lot, and don't necessarily know when photos are taken.

@nekomatic, @headshot, @Stephanie

I really hope I am not coming across as recommending not to listen to experts.

The thing is, I have an expectation that expert advice is (self-) consistent, in agreement with externally verifiable facts, and, if not backed by consensus, has a plausible argument/basis for differing from the mainstream.

I also tend to put more credibility in people who admit mistakes and explain correctly where they went wrong and how they will do better in future than people who change their tune without acknowledging that they have done so.

The experts flanking the Prime Minister are doing a difficult job in difficult circumstances, and are probably constrained in ways I cannot imagine. It is a lot of responsibility getting a clear message out to the public at large where a misstep could potentially cost a lot of lives.

Advising social distancing while at the same time not closing down non-essential gathering places is a difficult proposition to explain clearly. Perhaps a clear:"You can go to the pub, or go clothes shopping, so long as you stay a good 2 metres away from everyone else."
"If you have the symptoms of a cough, cold or flu, self-isolate for 14 days or until the day after you have no symptoms, whichever is greater"

Constructive criticism of the way that advice is given might improve how it is delivered in future.

One of the tenets of critical thinking is not giving undue deference to authority. One should not be listening to experts because they are experts, one should listen to experts because they are right, and can be shown to be so. I will give the time of day to an expert in preference to a woo-merchant, but it won't stop me attempting to subject what they say to critical analysis.
I am not an expert in critical analysis, and I could be wrong, so I welcome corrections.

If this comes across as spikey, it's not meant to be so, I'm just trying to explain my position, and I appreciate the fact that this forum gives me a space to discuss things like this in a calm manner.

While the Government's advice isn't all that it might be, there is some serious stupidity going on too. There was some woman being on tv saing that staying indoors would be giving in.

FFS does she not realise that a virus is not something you can face down? Would sh refuse to carry an ubrella on the grounds that to do so would be giving in to the rain.

Sainsbury's much vaunted "open an hour early for the old and infirm" policy didn't work too well at Bell Green. According to the local community Facebook page queues had formed at both entrances but the security guard only opened one so folks at the other had to rush round to the open one. The old and infirm bit wasn't enforced either - plenty of young and fit shoppers elbowing them out the way.

TBH I think Government propaganda portraying those with disabilities as workshy and on line rhetoric characterising "boomers" as selfish and greedy contibutes to this kind of behaviour.

Little waster wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:37 pm Meanwhile:-

The UK is at 144 fatalities on 19 March..

When was Italy at 144 fatalities?

On 5 March.

How many days ago was 5 March?

14 days.

We keep running the maths, various methods, using confirmed cases and fatalities and calculations of the exponential. And every single time it comes up with the same answer. We are about 14 days behind Italy. We are 14 days behind now, were 14 days behind a week ago, were 14 days behind at the start of the month.

Which is why we were shocked at last week's announcement claiming we were 4 weeks behind Italy and so only needed limited action. If they'd said 16 days or something it would have been fine. But 4 weeks was plain wrong. All the charts show it to be wrong. The daily evidence keeps showing it was wrong.

We are 6 days behind Spain. 3 days behind France. We can see the future.

To be clear, I’m entirely OK with criticism of political decisions. The choice to recommend people avoid bars and theatres, but not order them to shut, is boneheaded incompetence of the highest order, for example.

It’s criticism of scientific and medical advice by people who don’t have both the expertise and the data to do so that bugs me, and in that context, while I cede to no-one in holding Boris Johnson for a dangerous and ignorant a..eh.le, it’s actually possible that when he repeats the advice of his civil servants without embellishing it, he might be right - or at least, not demonstrably wrong.

It’s obvious that if government policy had the NHS in better shape, we’d be better off, but there’s a limit to how helpful it is to bash on that right now. Save it for when we have a leader of the opposition who’ll make something effective of it, for a start.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:09 pm Remember, Johnson is the man who said that the hero of Jaws was the mayor of the town, because he tried to keep the beach open.

I was about to reply "What? Really?!!" when I noticed I was replying to EPD, so I googled it and found the link myself Here it is for anyone else who was out of the loop: https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/m ... aughn-jaws Which is an entertaining article for a bit of light relief.

I haven't seen Jaws. Might watch it.

Here's the case numbers in Portugal. Only 4 deaths so far, so we're not on the FT graphic.

I'm trying to find a clear explanation of what constitutes a 'suspected' case - if there's a standard WHO protocol I expect they're following that.

We're on full lockdown now. All businesses closed except for supermarkets, bakeries, pharmacies and petrol stations. No unnecessary travel. Enforced social distancing:

People who are infected with the coronavirus are to stay in isolation, anyone infected who leaves isolation will be regarded as a committing a crime of disobedience.

People over the age of 70, or those who are have existing health problems that make them vulnerable were described by Costa as being at “particular risk” and should only leave the house in very exceptional circumstances: for securing essential goods, going to the health center, the bank, or taking small walks for health reasons.

There will be no special hours for people who need special protection. "People over the age of 70 are asked to limit leaving the home as much as possible. They have higher risks and special protection is essential. Families, neighbours and local authorities must ensure the greatest possible support for this population."

In all other cases people are being told to “only leave the house if necessary” either for work, assisting family members, to walk pets or to secure essential goods.

Wherever possible all work should be done remotely via phone or online to avoid all face to face communications.

[...]

Those who have to work must comply with the rules of the DGS [Directorate-General of Health]: social distance, the hygiene that was defined in the context of the pandemic and conditions for the protection of workers.

https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/st ... ined/53448

My local health practice has nearly run out of facemasks already, with staff buying them online out of their own pocket at exorbitant prices. They are refusing entry to the building to enforce social distancing.

JQH wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:04 pmWhile the Government's advice isn't all that it might be, there is some serious stupidity going on too. There was some woman being on tv saing that staying indoors would be giving in.

FFS does she not realise that a virus is not something you can face down? Would sh refuse to carry an ubrella on the grounds that to do so would be giving in to the rain.

Former Italian PM Matteo Renzi makes the same point (in an rather entertaining way, given the circumstances --- he has an accent from Central Comedy Casting and seems to smile naturally at almost any opportunity) starting at 9:25 here.

Another nice visualisation, based on case numbers. Coronavirus cases by Millions of Population since at least one case

The three slowest curves are UK, Finland and USA, which highlights the benefits of not testing (UK and USA) and social distancing (Finland) on preventing an increase in case numbers.

From Johns Hopkins CSSE:
Active cases, recoveries, deaths

Very impressive recovery performance in China.

I copied this from the FAZ.

Will seek if I can find it in English at the source given.

Here is link to source at Johns Hopkins.

Highly recommended.

Anything relying on Chinese figures however, must be taken with tremendous caution, given their fascist regime's track record of lying and covering up evidence on this issue, and incentive to continue to do so.

Pucksoppet wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:52 pm Critical thinking really ought to be part of the core curriculum.

I don't know if it still is, but it was introduced in the 90s into the primary school curriculum. In my last couple of years there we had to do 15 mins of the critical thinking class each day IIRC. The problem is that the only thing I remember of it was everyone* thinking it was unmitigated sh.t, and not knowing what the hell it was about or for. That is literally my only memory of it. This may have been different in other schools with other teachers

*kids at least.