Scrutable

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:19 am

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:55 am

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:03 am Georgia 665 to Trump...

Next batch could do it!

AZ safe, NV easy, PA steadily tracking to it's inevitable win.

Biden wins 306-232.

Biden can win with just AZ and NV. So all the drama in the East may be superfluous.

I thought AZ was wobbly because the opposite process is happening compared to the others (Biden leading but with a big Republican-leaning county left to count)? But maybe that just the BBC, where I think I saw this, being prudent.

Yes, AZ is still wobbly, and hasn't been called by the NYT.

People don't understand overseas military ballots that are still to be counted in Georgia and other places.

1. It's actually military and civilian - I believe with fewer troops now in Afghanistan etc the civilian number in military bases now exceeds military

2. The assumption that soldiers vote Republican is wrong. Serving military is about 50/50 And probably leans a bit to Biden

3. It's tiny numbers. A net of few hundred. Biden is heading to about 10,000 lead in Georgia

Obviously it would wrong for official calls of Georgia but I don't think it's actually going to end in recount territory.

jimbob wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:48 am After Trump's speech, that Downfall meme might need redoing as being a bit too low-key.

Nah we'll just have to flip it-

Scene opens with a Trump aide pointing at the electroral map of the US name-checking Zossen (Georgia), Stahnsdorf (Arizona), Frohnau (Nevada) and Pankow (Pennsylvania).

They are interrupted by Mike Pence bringing the latest poll figures to a clearly emotional Trump explaining "Russian troops have entered Berlin"

A devastated Trump struggles to lift a glass of water to his lips with two shaking hands before instructing Don Jr. and Eric to leave the room.

Trump begins screaming at Kayleigh McEnany asking why "Felix Steiner's assault didn't break the Soviets like ordered?".

Kayleigh McEnany starts crying and is comforted by a clearly-grinning Melania.

Trump then goes on a lengthy demented rant, (editor note: just cut in any old random Trump speech at this point) accusing, among other things, Chris Christie of "spending years only learning to use a knife and fork at the military academy" and stating that dead American soldiers are "the scum of the German people" and that COVID victims "deserve to drown in their own blood".

The scene ends on a quiet note as a broken Trump CAPSLOCKS tweets "IF U THINK I'M GONNA 2 LEAVE BERLIN YOUR SRSLY MISTAKEN. I'D RATHER BLOW MY OWN BRAINS OUT. DO WHATEVA YOU LIKE #SADHITLER"

Fade to black.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:34 am

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:19 am

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:55 am

Biden can win with just AZ and NV. So all the drama in the East may be superfluous.

I thought AZ was wobbly because the opposite process is happening compared to the others (Biden leading but with a big Republican-leaning county left to count)? But maybe that just the BBC, where I think I saw this, being prudent.

Yes, AZ is still wobbly, and hasn't been called by the NYT.

It really isn't. AZ is safe. It would be scary if was the decider but irrationally scary if you know what I mean.

And stop with the BBC! It's coverage is a disgrace. Every paragraph they write is littered with basic factual errors about how it works.

HURRAH HURRAH WE BRING THE JUBILEE

917

That's a nice surprise - betting markets have Biden 40-1 on. About 12 hours ago it was 25-1 on, then slipped to 14-1 on about 6 hours ago and I thought "oh no".

Brightonian wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:57 am That's a nice surprise - betting markets have Biden 40-1 on. About 12 hours ago it was 25-1 on, then slipped to 14-1 on about 6 hours ago and I thought "oh no".

Posts like this baffle me, because I have no idea what a betting market is or how it works. There’s a whole world of gambling out there that I occasionally look at when going to dog or horse races with friends, and it makes no sense to me so I turn around and walk away.

Little waster wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:44 am

jimbob wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:48 am After Trump's speech, that Downfall meme might need redoing as being a bit too low-key.

Nah we'll just have to flip it-

Scene opens with a Trump aide pointing at the electroral map of the US name-checking Zossen (Georgia), Stahnsdorf (Arizona), Frohnau (Nevada) and Pankow (Pennsylvania).

They are interrupted by Mike Pence bringing the latest poll figures to a clearly emotional Trump explaining "Russian troops have entered Berlin"

A devastated Trump struggles to lift a glass of water to his lips with two shaking hands before instructing Don Jr. and Eric to leave the room.

Trump begins screaming at Kayleigh McEnany asking why "Felix Steiner's assault didn't break the Soviets like ordered?".

Kayleigh McEnany starts crying and is comforted by a clearly-grinning Melania.

Trump then goes on a lengthy demented rant, (editor note: just cut in any old random Trump speech at this point) accusing, among other things, Chris Christie of "spending years only learning to use a knife and fork at the military academy" and stating that dead American soldiers are "the scum of the German people" and that COVID victims "deserve to drown in their own blood".

The scene ends on a quiet note as a broken Trump CAPSLOCKS tweets "IF U THINK I'M GONNA 2 LEAVE BERLIN YOUR SRSLY MISTAKEN. I'D RATHER BLOW MY OWN BRAINS OUT. DO WHATEVA YOU LIKE #SADHITLER"

Fade to black.

That was what I was envisioning but hadn't seen how to explain that

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:55 am Biden can win with just AZ and NV. So all the drama in the East may be superfluous.

Oh yes - I know. But AZ is a bit wobbly and NV won't be confirmed until Nov 12th.

And anyone who has been streaming CNN will know what I mean about wanting some peace from Richard Quest.

Charlie Brooker's take on it:
https://twitter.com/charltonbrooker/sta ... 75072?s=20

Charlie Brooker
@charltonbrooker
This is all a bit like when an end-of-level boss flashes red and starts spinning like a top.
1:02 AM · Nov 6, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
1.1K
Retweets

Charlie Brooker
@charltonbrooker
Replying to
@Rylan
This whole thing has already been way more insane than any political fable I could possibly conceive of, and I wrote the one where the Prime Minister f.cks a pig.
1:15 AM · Nov 6, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
77
Retweets

Grumble wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:16 am

Brightonian wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:57 am That's a nice surprise - betting markets have Biden 40-1 on. About 12 hours ago it was 25-1 on, then slipped to 14-1 on about 6 hours ago and I thought "oh no".

Posts like this baffle me, because I have no idea what a betting market is or how it works. There’s a whole world of gambling out there that I occasionally look at when going to dog or horse races with friends, and it makes no sense to me so I turn around and walk away.

On betting market sites like Betfair people are betting with each other, rather than with the house. So you have a kind of real-time wisdom-of-the-crowds thing going on. Compare that with traditional bookmakers where someone has to adjust the odds as a function of their exposure (i.e., the bets coming in) to make sure that they make money whoever wins. Before a football match you might get slightly different odds from two High Street bookmakers on either team winning, although I imagine that the efficiency of online betting means that this difference is likely to be negligible these days.

If Biden is 40-1 on his odds will be reported on Betfair as 1.025, meaning that if you stake $1,000 you will get $1,025 back (i.e., you win one-fortieth, $25, and you get your stake back). At that point Trump will probably be at something like 30/1, which would appear as odds of 31.0, meaning that if you stake $1000 and Trump wins, you get $31,000 back ($30,000 winnings and your stake back).

In a 2-horse race, if you subtract 1 from each numeric odds rating and multiply them, you get a number less than one, because otherwise you could bet on both. So for example here, (1.025-1)=0.025, (31-1)=30, and their product is 0.75.

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:22 am BOOM!

We hit the x axis in Georgia.

Why are some people saying it’s humorous/significant that the news was announced at 4:20 am?

Here's the latest charts. The visual shows it so clearly. I love how remorselessly Trump's hopes march downwards, the x-axis of his defeat getting closer and closer. Then BAM! he's down.

Georgia



Pennsylvania



From John Haurum
https://twitter.com/jhaurum

Grumble wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:30 am

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:22 am BOOM!

We hit the x axis in Georgia.

Why are some people saying it’s humorous/significant that the news was announced at 4:20 am?

Hopefully for the "4:20=marijuana" meme, and not the "4/20=20 April=Hitler's birthday" meme.

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:35 am

Grumble wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:30 am

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:22 am BOOM!

We hit the x axis in Georgia.

Why are some people saying it’s humorous/significant that the news was announced at 4:20 am?

Hopefully for the "4:20=marijuana" meme, and not the "4/20=20 April=Hitler's birthday" meme.

Either seems fine in context, tbh.

4:20 marijuana meme is specifically 4:20pm by the way. The college radio station I listen to for new music always plays a reggae track at that time.

dyqik wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:03 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:35 am

Grumble wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:30 am

Why are some people saying it’s humorous/significant that the news was announced at 4:20 am?

Hopefully for the "4:20=marijuana" meme, and not the "4/20=20 April=Hitler's birthday" meme.

Either seems fine in context, tbh.

4:20 marijuana meme is specifically 4:20pm by the way. The college radio station I listen to for new music always plays a reggae track at that time.

Thanks, I did wonder where marijuana came into that. I presume there’s some reason why that’s a bit deeper.

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:30 am Lovely that the switch comes from a batch of (probably) black voters in John Lewis's old district.

Awww that is lovely!

Bird on a Fire wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:31 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:30 am Lovely that the switch comes from a batch of (probably) black voters in John Lewis's old district.

Awww that is lovely!

Good trouble indeed...

Dems need a good long talk with Stacey Abrams about how they can apply what she's managed in Georgia re: voting access right across the South

They do, definitely. Amazing what's happened/happening there.

Are there provisions in place to stop an outgoing president wreaking total f.cking havoc in the months before the new President takes office? Or did the founding fathers never envision a petulant toddler being President?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:46 pm They do, definitely. Amazing what's happened/happening there.

https://twitter.com/markmobility/status ... 89348?s=19

Basically, Democratic turnout up at least 33% on 2008, 2012, 2016. Despite the Supreme Court gutting the voting rights act, etc.

Mail-in ballots may also have helped with that, mind.

Biden's vote has just surpassed Trumps in Pennsylvania.

monkey wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:56 pm Biden's vote has just surpassed Trumps in Pennsylvania.

I like it when inevitable things happen!

Come on, call the state! Go for it Fox!