Scrutable

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:51 pm Anyone got an opinion on this watermark theory?

Apparently Trump watermarked the real ballots, the Democrats smuggled in fake ballots, and in a couple of weeks Trump will jump out and say GOTCHA! The entire conspiracy will be revealed, the deep state arrested and children freed.

If true, looks like the Democrats have walked into the ambush.

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:51 pm Anyone got an opinion on this watermark theory?

Apparently Trump watermarked the real ballots, the Democrats smuggled in fake ballots, and in a couple of weeks Trump will jump out and say GOTCHA! The entire conspiracy will be revealed, the deep state arrested and children freed.

If true, looks like the Democrats have walked into the ambush.

Martin_B wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 11:43 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:51 pm Anyone got an opinion on this watermark theory?

Apparently Trump watermarked the real ballots, the Democrats smuggled in fake ballots, and in a couple of weeks Trump will jump out and say GOTCHA! The entire conspiracy will be revealed, the deep state arrested and children freed.

If true, looks like the Democrats have walked into the ambush.

From the news report posted here a couple of days ago ballots were printed by local companies and mailed out (we know this because a Trump-supporting company got the contract and failed to post out ~10,000 ballots). As the lowest-bidding company, do you think they would have been arsed about adding watermarks (and specifically the correct watermark) into the ballot paper?

There wasn't a central printing and distribution system for the ballots which would have allowed the addition of a watermark.

Martin_B wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:14 am I was having a look at the voting at a county level within states, and it's remarkable just how much the US is split along city/rural lines.

Even in red states, there will usually be a handful (sometimes just 1 or 2) counties which voted blue, and these will be the cities.

The county containing the largest city which didn't vote for Biden was Oklahoma City, where Biden got 48% of the vote (Biden's total Oklahoma share was 32%, so 16% higher than the state average). Oklahoma City is only the 25th largest city in America.

Of the 50 largest cities in America, 47 voted for Biden and only 3 voted for Trump. The others were:
- Tulsa (47th largest), also in Oklahoma, where Biden got 41% of the vote - still 9% higher than the state average.
- Colorado Springs (39th largest), which is an oddity as Biden only got 43% of the vote, while he got over 55% of the total Colorado vote. Although the largest city in Colorado (Denver) did vote 81% for Biden, so this may have skewed the results!

One of the oddest things I noticed was in Louisiana, where Biden's overall share was 40%. In Cameron Parish Biden got just 8% of the ~4000 votes, while in New Orleans Parish Biden got 83% of the ~178,000 votes! Is there a bigger split between city and rural areas anywhere in America?

Two things struck me:

1) There is a huge difference in voting population between some of the counties (see above for Cameron and New Orleans Parishes in Louisiana, but this is the same all over the USA). I know that the counties/parishes aren't the same as the Congressional districts, but it'd be easy to gerrymander the Congressional districts along geographical lines to build-in a Republican bias.

2) If the Democrats can understand why they poll quite so badly in rural areas, there is a lot of potential to pick up extra votes there. Or is it that rural voters are never going to vote Democrat, no matter what policies they come up with?

Brightonian wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:12 am

Martin_B wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:14 am I was having a look at the voting at a county level within states, and it's remarkable just how much the US is split along city/rural lines.

Even in red states, there will usually be a handful (sometimes just 1 or 2) counties which voted blue, and these will be the cities.

The county containing the largest city which didn't vote for Biden was Oklahoma City, where Biden got 48% of the vote (Biden's total Oklahoma share was 32%, so 16% higher than the state average). Oklahoma City is only the 25th largest city in America.

Of the 50 largest cities in America, 47 voted for Biden and only 3 voted for Trump. The others were:
- Tulsa (47th largest), also in Oklahoma, where Biden got 41% of the vote - still 9% higher than the state average.
- Colorado Springs (39th largest), which is an oddity as Biden only got 43% of the vote, while he got over 55% of the total Colorado vote. Although the largest city in Colorado (Denver) did vote 81% for Biden, so this may have skewed the results!

One of the oddest things I noticed was in Louisiana, where Biden's overall share was 40%. In Cameron Parish Biden got just 8% of the ~4000 votes, while in New Orleans Parish Biden got 83% of the ~178,000 votes! Is there a bigger split between city and rural areas anywhere in America?

Two things struck me:

1) There is a huge difference in voting population between some of the counties (see above for Cameron and New Orleans Parishes in Louisiana, but this is the same all over the USA). I know that the counties/parishes aren't the same as the Congressional districts, but it'd be easy to gerrymander the Congressional districts along geographical lines to build-in a Republican bias.

2) If the Democrats can understand why they poll quite so badly in rural areas, there is a lot of potential to pick up extra votes there. Or is it that rural voters are never going to vote Democrat, no matter what policies they come up with?

Have occasionally wondered why it is that city people are more liberal than rural people. Not just in the US, but other countries (well, ones I'm familiar with, UK, France, Ireland). Anyone know?

Martin_B wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:14 am - Colorado Springs (39th largest), which is an oddity as Biden only got 43% of the vote, while he got over 55% of the total Colorado vote. Although the largest city in Colorado (Denver) did vote 81% for Biden, so this may have skewed the results!

Martin_B wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:14 am I was having a look at the voting at a county level within states, and it's remarkable just how much the US is split along city/rural lines.

dyqik wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:52 pm Q has been very quiet since election day.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:53 am Someone else has suggested they just rerun the races in Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Because it's just too difficult to keep going from here.

sTeamTraen wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:53 pm

Martin_B wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:14 am I was having a look at the voting at a county level within states, and it's remarkable just how much the US is split along city/rural lines.

Were you looking at numbers, or just colours of counties? My point is that if you are going to colour a county blue whether it voted 50.1% or 80% for Biden, or vice versa for red, you can end up with all sorts of narratives that aren't particularly true, because you're (not you Martin_B, but "one") the one imposing the dichotomy and then finding it. Cf the maps of the whole US that find tealeaf patterns in red v blue states, which can fall apart if you use a more subtle form of shading.

Martin_B wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:18 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:53 pm

Martin_B wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:14 am I was having a look at the voting at a county level within states, and it's remarkable just how much the US is split along city/rural lines.

Were you looking at numbers, or just colours of counties? My point is that if you are going to colour a county blue whether it voted 50.1% or 80% for Biden, or vice versa for red, you can end up with all sorts of narratives that aren't particularly true, because you're (not you Martin_B, but "one") the one imposing the dichotomy and then finding it. Cf the maps of the whole US that find tealeaf patterns in red v blue states, which can fall apart if you use a more subtle form of shading.

A mixture of both - looking to see where was blue/red, but then looking deeper to see what the actual numbers were. Some adjacent counties had voting differences of 60-70%

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:37 pm Is this what tantric is like?

Trinucleus wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:07 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:49 pm I've barely thought about cricket scoring since I was a schoolboy. I didn't understand it then, and I still don't.

Mind you, I take it that in cricket matches you just have to watch the game unfold, tediously, and count up the points after they happen, rather than relying on a bewildering ecosystem of news outlets to 'call' the score in advance.

And after five days it's a draw

Martin_B wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:18 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:53 pm

Martin_B wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:14 am I was having a look at the voting at a county level within states, and it's remarkable just how much the US is split along city/rural lines.

Were you looking at numbers, or just colours of counties? My point is that if you are going to colour a county blue whether it voted 50.1% or 80% for Biden, or vice versa for red, you can end up with all sorts of narratives that aren't particularly true, because you're (not you Martin_B, but "one") the one imposing the dichotomy and then finding it. Cf the maps of the whole US that find tealeaf patterns in red v blue states, which can fall apart if you use a more subtle form of shading.

A mixture of both - looking to see where was blue/red, but then looking deeper to see what the actual numbers were. Some adjacent counties had voting differences of 60-70%

FlammableFlower wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:19 pm Looks like Murdoch's instruments (newspaper and TV) are starting to turn on Trump. Hell's teeth, had Laura Ingraham practically pleading with him to go quietly.

FlammableFlower wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 3:19 pm Looks like Murdoch's instruments (newspaper and TV) are starting to turn on Trump. Hell's teeth, had Laura Ingraham practically pleading with him to go quietly.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:37 pm Is this what tantric is like?