Scrutable

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:05 pm**

purplehaze wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:41 pm Loads of people from virus hotspots heading down to the Southwest, Devon and Cornwall to their second homes.

Plus off to the caravans in Wales, the Dales, Cumbria and camping out in Scotland.

Excellent way to spread the virus and overload the healthcare system plus the local shops - though the latter are rightly using the phrase local shops for local people.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-services

Polzeath specifically is also nearly an hour's drive to the nearest major hospital in Truro. I imagine other very rural places will be similarly well served.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:36 pm**

lpm wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:50 pm
lpm wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:41 am 14 days ago Italy was on 148 deaths and 351 patients in ICU. UK is on 144 deaths so probably assume similar number of about 350 in ICU?
Two days later:

UK deaths today: 233
Italy 14 days ago: 233

Uncanny.

Yep, came here to post the same thing. Cases up by over a thousand today. Everything is bang on trend.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:06 pm**

Our rate of new cases has been a slower exponential these past few days; I suppose the deaths are lagging behind so they're still on the faster exponential from the previous week or so.

Apparently this was predicted to be our toughest weekend but we should see over the next few days if the most recent lockdown has acheived anything.

However I'm aware that it isn't the first time I've written something like this.

Let's hope at least Lombardy is under control soon.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm**

purplehaze wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:07 pm
headshot wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:39 pm Went for a run this morning. Lots of cars on the road, multiple cars filled with older people travelling with younger family/friends.

Reports in some areas of nail bars, hair dressers etc all open as usual and with plenty of custom.

FFS. People are so f.cking thick.
Saw grandparents with family and children as well as walking around as if fresh air is the answer.

Plus Drive through McDonalds open. I'm not sure about this.

Actually the Govt advice is that outdoor walks are fine as long as you maintain social distancing.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:40 pm**

headshot wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm
purplehaze wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:07 pm
headshot wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:39 pm Went for a run this morning. Lots of cars on the road, multiple cars filled with older people travelling with younger family/friends.

Reports in some areas of nail bars, hair dressers etc all open as usual and with plenty of custom.

FFS. People are so f.cking thick.
Saw grandparents with family and children as well as walking around as if fresh air is the answer.

Plus Drive through McDonalds open. I'm not sure about this.
Clumber Park in Nottinghamshire has taken the decision to close after too many people turned up to enjoy the fresh air and didnt/couldn't maintain social distancing.

Actually the Govt advice is that outdoor walks are fine as long as you maintain social distancing.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:41 pm**

Hospitals in the US are warning that they are going to run out of money in a few weeks, and have to lay off staff and close unless they are bailed out.

The cancelling of elective procedures means a massive drop in income and cash flow.

https://twitter.com/markmobility/status ... 03809?s=19

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:58 pm**

shpalman wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:36 pm The local authorities here had to make clear that NO YOU CAN'T GO TO YOUR OTHER HOUSE IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THE WEEKEND THIS IS NOT A f.cking HOLIDAY

AND NO YOU CAN'T GO ON FRIDAY AND COME BACK ON MONDAY TO TECHNICALLY AVOID THE WEEKEND ITSELF

Same here.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:05 pm**

Is there any reason why people shouldn’t go to their other house? I’m still looking forward to a week in a self catering cottage, should be perfectly possible to maintain good social distancing. Going to a hotel, I see the problem. But going to a second home or a self catering place, what’s the big problem?

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:27 pm**

Grumble wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:05 pm Is there any reason why people shouldn’t go to their other house? I’m still looking forward to a week in a self catering cottage, should be perfectly possible to maintain good social distancing. Going to a hotel, I see the problem. But going to a second home or a self catering place, what’s the big problem?

Rural areas generally don't have the services to cope with a large influx of people. Hospitals can get overwhelmed, which is the most important obviously. But shops can as well. When It happens in tourist season obviously some planning can take place. But In the case the hospital beds, if you got ill then that's a bed/ventilator not available for some one local.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:28 pm**

Grumble wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:05 pm Is there any reason why people shouldn’t go to their other house? I’m still looking forward to a week in a self catering cottage, should be perfectly possible to maintain good social distancing. Going to a hotel, I see the problem. But going to a second home or a self catering place, what’s the big problem?

I think what places like Cornwall and North Wales are arguing is that they have fewer NHS resources per capita than urban areas, and so don't want extra people moving in at this particular moment.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 pm**

dyqik wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:41 pm Hospitals in the US are warning that they are going to run out of money in a few weeks, and have to lay off staff and close unless they are bailed out.

The cancelling of elective procedures means a massive drop in income and cash flow.

https://twitter.com/markmobility/status ... 03809?s=19

WTF? The way the US organises healthcare is insane.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:32 pm**

Grumble wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:05 pm Is there any reason why people shouldn’t go to their other house? I’m still looking forward to a week in a self catering cottage, should be perfectly possible to maintain good social distancing. Going to a hotel, I see the problem. But going to a second home or a self catering place, what’s the big problem?

If everyone did it here, at the same time, then that would be a whole load of traffic (including a non-zero probability of traffic accidents when hospitals are kind of busy right now) which the forces of order would have to check, and a whole load of possibility for Milan to export its viruses to small local communities, because somebody is bound to have to go to a shop or something at some point.

And even if the city dwellers manage to not infect any locals, there's a non-zero probability that one of them might start developing symptoms while stuck in a relatively remote location. A person can go from manageable symptoms to severe respiratory distress extremely quickly.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:12 pm**

mediocrity511 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:27 pm
Grumble wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:05 pm Is there any reason why people shouldn’t go to their other house? I’m still looking forward to a week in a self catering cottage, should be perfectly possible to maintain good social distancing. Going to a hotel, I see the problem. But going to a second home or a self catering place, what’s the big problem?
Rural areas generally don't have the services to cope with a large influx of people. Hospitals can get overwhelmed, which is the most important obviously. But shops can as well. When It happens in tourist season obviously some planning can take place. But In the case the hospital beds, if you got ill then that's a bed/ventilator not available for some one local.

Hmm. Fair enough. I hope there’s some government advice on that then before May, because as it stands if we cancel our holiday we will still have to pay for it. If the government say “don’t travel to North Wales” (or equivalent) then we’ll be able to cancel without the worry.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:21 pm**

AMS wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 pm
dyqik wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:41 pm Hospitals in the US are warning that they are going to run out of money in a few weeks, and have to lay off staff and close unless they are bailed out.

The cancelling of elective procedures means a massive drop in income and cash flow.

https://twitter.com/markmobility/status ... 03809?s=19
WTF? The way the US organises healthcare is insane.

The US doesn't organize healthcare.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:23 pm**

shpalman wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:32 pm
Grumble wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:05 pm Is there any reason why people shouldn’t go to their other house? I’m still looking forward to a week in a self catering cottage, should be perfectly possible to maintain good social distancing. Going to a hotel, I see the problem. But going to a second home or a self catering place, what’s the big problem?
If everyone did it here, at the same time, then that would be a whole load of traffic (including a non-zero probability of traffic accidents when hospitals are kind of busy right now) which the forces of order would have to check, and a whole load of possibility for Milan to export its viruses to small local communities, because somebody is bound to have to go to a shop or something at some point.

And even if the city dwellers manage to not infect any locals, there's a non-zero probability that one of them might start developing symptoms while stuck in a relatively remote location. A person can go from manageable symptoms to severe respiratory distress extremely quickly.

Also likely an overload on smaller shops at more distant points in the supply chain, and on smaller hospitals etc. when people traveling inevitably turn out to have caught it before leaving.

See also the rich fuckwits heading to Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, which both now have cases.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:29 pm**

Oh I didn't mention Fondi (Lazio) - seems to be that a young woman came home from Milan, infected her parents, and then there was a carnival party for seniors, and now two people are dead and the whole city of 40000 people is locked down.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:55 pm**

Littorally Unbelievable.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:57 pm**

tenchboy wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:55 pm Littorally Unbelievable.

Our social distancing policy left stranded.

Posted: **Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:38 pm**

dyqik wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:21 pm
AMS wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:31 pm
dyqik wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:41 pm Hospitals in the US are warning that they are going to run out of money in a few weeks, and have to lay off staff and close unless they are bailed out.

The cancelling of elective procedures means a massive drop in income and cash flow.

https://twitter.com/markmobility/status ... 03809?s=19
WTF? The way the US organises healthcare is insane.
The US doesn't organize healthcare.

Yet manages to spend a higher proportion of its GDP even on *public* healthcare than the UK (just)

Posted: **Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:12 am**

jimbob wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:38 pm
dyqik wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:21 pm The US doesn't organize healthcare.
Yet manages to spend a higher proportion of its GDP even on *public* healthcare than the UK (just)

US Healthcare has an immense number of lawyers and lobbyists to feed.

Posted: **Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:39 am**

bmforre wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:12 am
jimbob wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:38 pm
dyqik wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:21 pm The US doesn't organize healthcare.
Yet manages to spend a higher proportion of its GDP even on *public* healthcare than the UK (just)
US Healthcare has an immense number of lawyers and lobbyists to feed.

That's not even included in that number!

Posted: **Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:50 am**

shpalman wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:36 pm AND NO YOU CAN'T GO ON FRIDAY AND COME BACK ON MONDAY TO TECHNICALLY AVOID THE WEEKEND ITSELF

Did that literally have to issue a separate explicit order for that? I'd love to see it if you have a link (in Italian is fine).

Posted: **Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:55 am**

lpm wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:50 pm
lpm wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:41 am 14 days ago Italy was on 148 deaths and 351 patients in ICU. UK is on 144 deaths so probably assume similar number of about 350 in ICU?
Two days later:
i
UK deaths today: 233
Italy 14 days ago: 233

Uncanny.

And yet Boris the Liar is still claiming that we will end up like Italy unless we take action. Too f.cking late. We will end up like Italy. The poor bastards who will die in droves without adequate care in overwhelmed hospitals are already infected. To prevent it, action was needed much earlier.

The nine days he dithered from that 11 March meeting to finally closing schools and pubs was enough time for the numbers of infected to grow tenfold.

Posted: **Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:26 am**

tenchboy wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:55 pm Littorally Unbelievable.

My god.

Posted: **Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:18 am**

Grumble wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:12 pm
mediocrity511 wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:27 pm
Grumble wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:05 pm Is there any reason why people shouldn’t go to their other house? I’m still looking forward to a week in a self catering cottage, should be perfectly possible to maintain good social distancing. Going to a hotel, I see the problem. But going to a second home or a self catering place, what’s the big problem?
Rural areas generally don't have the services to cope with a large influx of people. Hospitals can get overwhelmed, which is the most important obviously. But shops can as well. When It happens in tourist season obviously some planning can take place. But In the case the hospital beds, if you got ill then that's a bed/ventilator not available for some one local.
Hmm. Fair enough. I hope there’s some government advice on that then before May, because as it stands if we cancel our holiday we will still have to pay for it. If the government say “don’t travel to North Wales” (or equivalent) then we’ll be able to cancel without the worry.

Government advice is no "non-essential" travel. Though again, this is what BoJo has said but it's not explicit in the latest communication
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... le-adults

We had a cottage booking for Easter. The company told us we could rebook within the year or book another cottage to the same value. I think that's pretty kind of them (financially speaking) in the circumstances. I think our travel insurance might cover us cancelling anyway but need to check with them first once they actually answer the phone. Anyway, it's worth checking on the policy wording of any travel insurance you may have.

Scrutable

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