Scrutable

Can I take this opportunity to thank lpm (in particular, but also to everyone else who chipped in with relevant numbers) for her reporting of the statistics in this thread over the past 4 days? I couldn't bring myself to watch any of the news feed sites, and having someone else to report the good news while filtering out (and/or, correctly, relativising the bad) has been a substantial bonus for my blood pressure and mental well-being.

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:18 pm

Brightonian wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:07 pm There's still the Senate race though*. CNN currently have 48 D v 47 R, but NBC have 48 D v 48 R.



* Trying to sound knowledgeable.

Alaska's not called, but Dr. Gross is a hell of a long shot at this point. They won't count most of the vote - the mail vote - until next week.

Georgia's going to have a double runoff.

Not sure if everyone has called Captain Kelly beating Martha McSally yet, but if they haven't, they should. He's running acouple of points ahead of Biden in Arizona, and Arizona is still looking like Biden should come out on top.

Arizona has been called by AP

Grumble wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:20 pm Arizona has been called by AP

I learned today that AP has been regarded as the semi-official "caller of elections" for 170 years. Once they pronounce it, a surprising number of people say "Oh, right, well, that'd done then". Whereas at the formal level, nothing is officially decided until the new (!) senate accepts the results from the electoral college around 6 January. There's no Federal Returning Officer.

I suppose in parliamentary systems it's different because "winning" is not basically a binary thing, and in France --- where they have a powerful president who matters --- the full official tally comes out within a few hours (and everyone accepts the exit poll anyway unless it's closer than 51-49).

What happens if the senate refuses?

I've finally closed my 538 tab.

shpalman wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:35 pm

Brightonian wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:25 pm I've a Galway Bay red ale which I'd forgotten I had.

Paddy Power have now launched a "Trump Concession Special", where you can bet on "When will Donald Trump publicly concede?" At the moment, "Before November 13th" is at 5-2 against, and "November 13th 2020 or later/Never" is at 4-1 on!

I'm looking forward to Trump being physically removed from the Whitehouse on the 20th of January and just dumped on the street outside the gates.

Ridiculous I know, as if he'll be in the Whitehouse. I expect him to be golfing between now and then, angrily tweeting and sulkily refusing to do any presidenting.

Just like Hitler, he'll end up stuck in a bunker.

bjn wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:43 pm What happens if the senate refuses?

It's not the Senate.

It's a joint session of Congress, presided over by the President of the Senate (the Vice President).

Grumble wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:20 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:18 pm

Brightonian wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:07 pm There's still the Senate race though*. CNN currently have 48 D v 47 R, but NBC have 48 D v 48 R.



* Trying to sound knowledgeable.

Alaska's not called, but Dr. Gross is a hell of a long shot at this point. They won't count most of the vote - the mail vote - until next week.

Georgia's going to have a double runoff.

Not sure if everyone has called Captain Kelly beating Martha McSally yet, but if they haven't, they should. He's running acouple of points ahead of Biden in Arizona, and Arizona is still looking like Biden should come out on top.

Arizona has been called by AP

As I understand the Arizona situation, Fox and AP called it, then it turned out tighter than expected and as a result others did not call it, NYT did not follow AP call, and it may have lead to FOX being warier than usual to call Nevada and thus the whole election - something they did the moment Pennsylvania made the Arizona call moot. That's the presidential race, but the senate is not so tight

dyqik wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:46 pm

bjn wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:43 pm What happens if the senate refuses?

It's not the Senate.

It's a joint session of Congress, presided over by the President of the Senate (the Vice President).

Harris or Pence?

Even if it was Pence: For a 50-48 Senate to refuse would provoke an unprecedented constitutional crisis. If this was likely, we would already have heard many Republican senators complaining that the election was rigged. I think most of them will be glad to see the back of Trump; they know that unless the Georgia runoffs deliver two Ds they can block any meaningful plans of Biden's and then blame him for the post-COVID recession(s), and pick up big numbers in 2022.

shpalman wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:04 pm The Trump campaign is holding a press conference at Four Seasons Total Landscaping in Philadelphia at 4:30pm (UK time) for some unknown reason.

I googled the place to see what it looked like.

photo_2020-11-07_17-01-52.jpg

See also https://twitter.com/ColbyItkowitz/statu ... 2660718592

Yes, really a landscaping company next to an adult bookshop and not a Four Seasons hotel

I decided to see if Randy Rainbow had reacted yet:

https://twitter.com/RandyRainbow/status ... 0328016896

Randy Rainbow
@RandyRainbow
I’ll be holding a press conference today at noon from Pam’s Unlimited Manscaping.
4:09 PM · Nov 7, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
678
Retweets
69
Quote Tweets
15.7K
Likes

Any reason that North Carolina hasn't been called for Trump? It looks like a wide enough margin from here.

shpalman wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:10 pm Any reason that North Carolina hasn't been called for Trump? It looks like a wide enough margin from here.

Depends on how many absentee ballots are returned, and if they follow the same margins as in Georgia or Pennsylvania, or more like the margins in Arizona. There's just enough ballots outstanding in very blue counties to make it possible.

And Georgia blew past its estimate of outstanding ballots, so something similar could happen in North Carolina.

sTeamTraen wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:56 pm

dyqik wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:46 pm

bjn wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:43 pm What happens if the senate refuses?

It's not the Senate.

It's a joint session of Congress, presided over by the President of the Senate (the Vice President).

Harris or Pence?

Even if it was Pence: For a 50-48 Senate to refuse would provoke an unprecedented constitutional crisis. If this was likely, we would already have heard many Republican senators complaining that the election was rigged. I think most of them will be glad to see the back of Trump; they know that unless the Georgia runoffs deliver two Ds they can block any meaningful plans of Biden's and then blame him for the post-COVID recession(s), and pick up big numbers in 2022.

And that looks pretty unlikely - given the numbers this time round, with the Democrat getting 32% of the vote.

jimbob wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:21 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:56 pm

dyqik wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 7:46 pm

It's not the Senate.

It's a joint session of Congress, presided over by the President of the Senate (the Vice President).

Harris or Pence?

Even if it was Pence: For a 50-48 Senate to refuse would provoke an unprecedented constitutional crisis. If this was likely, we would already have heard many Republican senators complaining that the election was rigged. I think most of them will be glad to see the back of Trump; they know that unless the Georgia runoffs deliver two Ds they can block any meaningful plans of Biden's and then blame him for the post-COVID recession(s), and pick up big numbers in 2022.

And that looks pretty unlikely - given the numbers this time round, with the Democrat getting 32% of the vote.

With other Democrats getting about 12 % of the vote, vs 46% for the Republican candidates. It's just about close enough to be doable in a special election without Trump on the ballot, and particularly if McConnell blocks CoVID stimulus.

The coronavirus is having a great party as well.

Ok, outside, and masks, but loads of singing and cheering.

dyqik wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:24 pm

jimbob wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:21 pm

sTeamTraen wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:56 pm

Harris or Pence?

Even if it was Pence: For a 50-48 Senate to refuse would provoke an unprecedented constitutional crisis. If this was likely, we would already have heard many Republican senators complaining that the election was rigged. I think most of them will be glad to see the back of Trump; they know that unless the Georgia runoffs deliver two Ds they can block any meaningful plans of Biden's and then blame him for the post-COVID recession(s), and pick up big numbers in 2022.

And that looks pretty unlikely - given the numbers this time round, with the Democrat getting 32% of the vote.

With other Democrats getting about 12 % of the vote, vs 46% for the Republican candidates. It's just about close enough to be doable in a special election without Trump on the ballot, and particularly if McConnell blocks CoVID stimulus.

Good - just need a lot of disheartened Trumpists and Conservatives to be repelled by Trump's antics... although they're probably more likely to think that a GOP senate is a check on Biden.

dyqik wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:16 pm

shpalman wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:10 pm Any reason that North Carolina hasn't been called for Trump? It looks like a wide enough margin from here.

Depends on how many absentee ballots are returned, and if they follow the same margins as in Georgia or Pennsylvania, or more like the margins in Arizona. There's just enough ballots outstanding in very blue counties to make it possible.

And Georgia blew past its estimate of outstanding ballots, so something similar could happen in North Carolina.

In NC, the deadline for mail ballots to arrive, so long as they are postmarked by election day, isn't until next Thursday. So there is less certainty than in some states about how many ballots remain to be counted. In Georgia they had to be received by election day, and in Pennsylvania they had to be received by yesterday.

Is it a bit crazy that each state has its own arcane rules like this? Yes, yes it is.

shpalman wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:01 pm Of course it's entirely in keeping with the character that he was out golfing. Wonder if he was in a bunker.

lol

ETA I see that dyqik enjoyed this joke as well

This probably lookist or sexist or something, but f.ck it: Kamala Harris looks like a really nice, normal person who smiles, properly, several times a day.

I don't expect politicians to look real (although Obama was pretty good). Biden looks like he's spent 48 years going on TV, that's par for the course. But almost everyone in the Trump camp just looks weird, partly because of the dead-eyes thing where every smile is a Pan-Am smile, but partly because of that over-made-up look that many Americans seem to have in pictures of all kinds.

shpalman wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 6:35 pm I'm looking forward to Trump being physically removed from the Whitehouse on the 20th of January and just dumped on the street outside the gates.

I’d be prepared to pay my own ticket over to DC to participate in dumping that f.cker in the gutter.

I celebrated!

Have you seen this WTF (the cat and backing track aren't real) but the video is of some WH prayer staff or something.

https://twitter.com/miffythegamer/statu ... 1491096576

jimbob wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:50 pm Have you seen this WTF (the cat and backing track aren't real) but the video is of some WH prayer staff or something.

https://twitter.com/miffythegamer/statu ... 1491096576

Isn’t she one of those prophets who feature on Cognitive Dissonance every now and then?

I finished off the bottle of Johnnie Walker “White Walker” I had left over from the disappointing GOT finale season.

Something about finally finishing off the zombie king and his mindless ghouls ... reminded me of Game of Thrones.

TBF I can probably predict Trump’s inauguration crowd is likely to be bigger than Biden’s given the current state of everything.

I can also predict Biden won’t still be whinging about on Twitter four years from now.