Scrutable

Anybody got any predictions on what's going to happen in the USA? It looks to me like that Trump suppression of any realistic response combined with Republican b.llsh.t and Fox News could result in something close to a genocide.

Gfamily wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:34 pm I've just cancelled taking our car in for its MOT tomorrow - no need for me and our mechanic guy to get out there. It's got a couple more weeks on its current one, and I suspect they'll suspend the need for them soon.
Heavy vehicles testing has already been cancelled, and (for a separate reason) MOTs in Northern Ireland.

If they don't get suspended, it looks like we will have to SORN the car.

They've been suspended here.

Italy had fewer new cases today than yesterday, and yesterday there were fewer new cases than the day before, so let's hope it's working.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:30 pm Anybody got any predictions on what's going to happen in the USA? It looks to me like that Trump suppression of any realistic response combined with Republican b.llsh.t and Fox News could result in something close to a genocide.

The USA will be listed alongside Iran in the "mostly uncontrolled" group.

The true horror is part 3. First was China. Then Europe/US. Third is Africa, India, Indonesia etc. Densely populated urban areas, little to no healthcare in rural areas, too poor to lock down.

Wow. Smart thermometers are a thing in the US.

https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1242160512739180544

The U.S. Health Weather Map is a visualization of seasonal illness linked to fever - specifically influenza-like illness. The aggregate, anonymized data visualized here is a product of Kinsa’s network of Smart Thermometers and the accompanying mobile applications. Kinsa is providing this map and associated charts as a public service.

The map shows two key data points: (1) the illness levels we’re currently observing, and (2) the degree to which those levels are higher than the typical levels we expect to see at this point in the flu season. (Details on how we calculate this are available in our technical approach document.) We believe this latter data point — which we’re calling “atypical illness”, may in some cases be connected to the COVID-19 pandemic.

shpalman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:40 pm Italy had fewer new cases today than yesterday, and yesterday there were fewer new cases than the day before, so let's hope it's working.

Yes, for everyone else the data can be seen here: http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1

Its about two weeks since the shutdowns in the North and then the rest of Italy. So we are possibly starting to see the effects of that in the numbers.

lpm wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:42 pm The true horror is part 3. First was China. Then Europe/US. Third is Africa, India, Indonesia etc. Densely populated urban areas, little to no healthcare in rural areas, too poor to lock down.

Indian colleagues we met with today said that they will be in lockdown from Tuesday night. I'm not sure if they meant just Chennai or the whole country. They're already working from home.

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 pm

shpalman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:40 pm Italy had fewer new cases today than yesterday, and yesterday there were fewer new cases than the day before, so let's hope it's working.

Yes, for everyone else the data can be seen here: http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1

Its about two weeks since the shutdowns in the North and then the rest of Italy. So we are possibly starting to see the effects of that in the numbers.

Well, I hope so, because we don't know what to do otherwise.

Johnson literally white knuckled.

Vertigowooyay wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:32 pm Johnson literally white knuckled.

If ever there was a case of someone's dream job not turning out quite as they expected...

'We will keep the situation under constant review andafterthreeweeks will look at this again'

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 pm

shpalman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:40 pm Italy had fewer new cases today than yesterday, and yesterday there were fewer new cases than the day before, so let's hope it's working.

Yes, for everyone else the data can be seen here: http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1

Its about two weeks since the shutdowns in the North and then the rest of Italy. So we are possibly starting to see the effects of that in the numbers.

And of course this also means that the UK's situation will get exponentially worse during the next two weeks until the measures being implemented now start to have an effect.

shpalman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:50 pm

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 pm

shpalman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:40 pm Italy had fewer new cases today than yesterday, and yesterday there were fewer new cases than the day before, so let's hope it's working.

Yes, for everyone else the data can be seen here: http://opendatadpc.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... e38d4138b1

Its about two weeks since the shutdowns in the North and then the rest of Italy. So we are possibly starting to see the effects of that in the numbers.

And of course this also means that the UK's situation will get exponentially worse during the next two weeks until the measures being implemented now start to have an effect.

So best case scenario currently is that UK deaths will peak at 5000 a day.

Italy had already been implementing various local lockdowns and mitigation strategies by then, so your number of cases might increase on a steeper exponential but you might not have such a terrible CFR.

raven wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:10 pm

FlammableFlower wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:27 am
The "average reading age" thing is made up, looked into on an episode of More Or Less, as far as they could discover it was just invented by some website and it has kept being repeated (or variations of it) as it suits certain viewpoints.

However, that doesn't detract at all from the substance of your and lpm's posts, that simplicity and clarity are what's needed.

Sorry, I misremembered. Or conflated the OECD and UK levels, one or the other. It's a good couple of weeks since I looked it up.

(Bit of an aside to the rest of this thread... but... I think it's a good example of one of those things that becomes received wisdom through repeated retelling; to the point with this one, that politicians started using the stat - I wouldn't have questioned had I not heard the podcast)

I feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.

Someone up there mentioned that Australia's response has seemed slow. Watching the Australian media, is have to agree with that.

The Federal government has been surprisingly fast to act on stimulus spending, after a full decade of deriding the GFC stimulus package. The MyGov app, where you apply for the sole, crashed yesterday and the government originally blamed a DDOS attack before sheepishly admitting that they just didn't expect that many people to apply for the sole at once.

But they've been much slower and more muddled on the health front. On Friday the 13th, the government banned gatherings of more than 500 people but the prime Minister still planned to go to the footy the next day. Within hours, the public backlash made him drop his footy plans. For years, their messaging had been that Pele should look out for themselves rather than the community but now they're saying that hoarding is Unaustralian. They closed down travel from China, Iran, and South Korea quite rapidly but left flights from Italy going for another week. I'm sure no racism was involved in that decision at all.

And, really stupidly, a few people got off a cruise ship with covid two weeks ago. Hours later, the ship went out again with 2700 new passengers on board, who are now home and were let off the ship to fly around the country without any checking, even though several were sick. So far, 50 new cases have been linked to that ship and those numbers will rise in the coming days. f.cking idiocy all round.

The states are mostly being a bit more responsive. Two states have independently closed all non-essential businesses and several have imposed border controls (which may actually be unconstitutional).

My nurse friends are furious at the lack of planning and the delays in ordering new equipment. They're really scared at the thought of working without basic PPE. Obviously, PPE is a problem everywhere, but Australian isolation should have given us time to start figuring out supply solutions and it seems nothing practical happened until the last few weeks.

My tiny state (Tasmania) has a doubling time of ~3 days at the moment but there isn't a single documented case of community transmission in the 28 yet. They're all imports or family of imports (six off cruise ships in the last two days). Perhaps we can kind-of contain it now that we're finally learning or lesson about cruise ships.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 pm I feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.

I saw a meme yesterday that described feeling like a primary school student feeling pissed off that one or two disruptive kids are causing the teacher to keep the whole class back for minute after precious minute of recess time.

Squeak wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:22 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 pm I feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.

I saw a meme yesterday that described feeling like a primary school student feeling pissed off that one or two disruptive kids are causing the teacher to keep the whole class back for minute after precious minute of recess time.

In my case it is exactly that - while spending the rest of my time trying to make sure an active 91 year old doesn’t get murdered by a tiny viral shithead strand of RNA

Squeak wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:22 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 pm I feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.

I saw a meme yesterday that described feeling like a primary school student feeling pissed off that one or two disruptive kids are causing the teacher to keep the whole class back for minute after precious minute of recess time.

Disruptive kids who were pissing in the classroom.

Squeak wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:22 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:19 pm I feel aggrieved that I’m under house arrest because there was footage of selfish bastards ignoring social distancing at the weekend although I suppose in reality it would have happened anyway.

I saw a meme yesterday that described feeling like a primary school student feeling pissed off that one or two disruptive kids are causing the teacher to keep the whole class back for minute after precious minute of recess time.

Disruptive kids who were pissing in the classroom.

Little waster wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:54 pm

shpalman wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:50 pmAnd of course this also means that the UK's situation will get exponentially worse during the next two weeks until the measures being implemented now start to have an effect.

So best case scenario currently is that UK deaths will peak at 5000 a day.

Wait a minute Italy's worst day was 800 deaths, and the total so far is 6077.

Lol - I’ve just been frantically scanning the site to see where that figure came from

purplehaze wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:48 am

lpm wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:04 am Jesus, the videos of London tube trains this morning... Crushed together like a usual rush hour. This in one of the most over-heated cities on the planet.

City and Waterloo line suspended and many stops closed. They are obviously not going into London because they work in non essential employment because most of that avenue of employment has closed.

And this is what I find galling. Essential workers crammed together to deliver what is essential to keep the country running. I'd be scared witless.

Be interesting to see if there are similar videos tomorrow.

FlammableFlower wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:16 pm

raven wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:10 pm

FlammableFlower wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:27 am The "average reading age" thing is made up

Sorry, I misremembered. Or conflated the OECD and UK levels, one or the other. It's a good couple of weeks since I looked it up.

(Bit of an aside to the rest of this thread... but... I think it's a good example of one of those things that becomes received wisdom through repeated retelling; to the point with this one, that politicians started using the stat - I wouldn't have questioned had I not heard the podcast)

[Reply to aside] Now I've actually thought about it, what happened was I saw average reading age quoted somewhere, tried to source it, looked reading age up on the ONS, couldn't find anything there, found something on the literacy trust that mentioned the OECD survey, which took me to The International Survey of Adult Skills 2012 and I got sidetracked into how far behind we are in numeracy and never did find anything to back up the reading age thing.

And yet when I was ranting, it was what came to mind. Probably because I've seen it so often. A great example of the Illusory Truth effect, I think. Wot I read about in Thinking, Fast and Slow. [/aside over, as you were]

lpm wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:42 pm

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:30 pm Anybody got any predictions on what's going to happen in the USA? It looks to me like that Trump suppression of any realistic response combined with Republican b.llsh.t and Fox News could result in something close to a genocide.

The USA will be listed alongside Iran in the "mostly uncontrolled" group.

The true horror is part 3. First was China. Then Europe/US. Third is Africa, India, Indonesia etc. Densely populated urban areas, little to no healthcare in rural areas, too poor to lock down.

South Africa is locking down for three weeks from Thursday. Spotted a FB thread on it which included stupid comments about foreigners exporting their diseases. Just in case you thought racist morons are a peculiarly white phenomena.