So, we're six weeks away from an election - where are we?
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My theory about why Sunak has called the election is that the polls continue to get worse and worse for him, and there isn't anything on the horizon to suggest that that will change. Today, with the new
YouGov poll out, the Tories have dropped to their lowest 14-day all-poll average since October 2022. They're now at 22.9%, and just seven tenths of a point away from their lowest under Truss. Meanwhile, Labour have recorded a tiny boost in support this week, so the lead has grown to 21 points on average. If the trends continued until October, they'd be destroyed. They'll still be destroyed, but maybe a tiny glob of the T2000 will remain active if he goes now rather than later.
Remember, back in 1997, the Tories had been in something of a recovery for about 8 months or so. The economy was picking up, the advent of the election meant people thought more about politics and the Tories didn't seem quite so bad. In 1992, the polls (which predicted a hung parliament or a small Labour lead) showed the Tories nearer 40% support.
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For smaller parties, Reform have dropped in support recently, so the trends aren't very valid for them. They've dropped by a point on average in the last month. They do seem to be topping out now, and are likely to drop down again, I suppose. Let's see. But here's the thing: this isn't helping the Tories. The Tories have
also dropped, by about half a point, in the last month. The Lib Dems have risen by about 0.7 points, and the Greens are around the same. Labour have risen by about a point too. Probably, at this point, the electorate remembering that the Lib Dems exist is the worst possible outcome for the Tories, because that's the mark of a true annihilation. Plus, of course, tactical voting.
Some seat scenarios, courtesy of electoral calculus:
- Today's 14-day average voting intention: LAB 488, CON 79, LIB 48, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 326 (
link)
- plus 25% tactical voting Lab/Lib/Grn: LAB 505, CON 55, LIB 55, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 360 (
link)
- Trend point for 4 July: LAB 473, CON 90, LIB 51, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 296 (
link)
- plus 25% tactical voting Lab/Lib/Grn: LAB 492, CON 65, LIB 58, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 334 (
link)
- Five point election period recovery for the Tories, five point loss for Labour from the 4 July trend point, plus tactical voting: LAB 407, CON 159, LIB 47, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 164 (
link)
- Tory worst-case current polling scenario (today's YouGov poll), with tactical voting: LAB 534, CON 32, LIB 49, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 418 (over the Lib Dems) (
link)
- Tory best-case current polling scenario (Monday's More In Common poll), without tactical voting: LAB 435, CON 146, LIB 33, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 220 (
link)
- That last one plus a seven-point election period recovery, seven point loss for Labour, without tactical voting (Con 34%, Lab 36%): LAB 330, CON 267, LIB 16, GRN 2, REF 0, SNP 12 - maj 10 (
link)
So, basically, the election is going to have to go really, really badly for Labour for them not to get a majority. It's quite hard for them not to win. There will be tactical voting, and it's very unlikely that the Tories will recover seven points past the best-case polling, in my view. Add tactical voting onto that last scenario and the Labour majority becomes 22. But let's see. My current guess is that fifth scenario - a small Tory recovery, ending up in only a 1997-level landslide for Labour.