Scrutable

Trumps mugshot as art - clicky

I assume Justin Bieber was so accustomed to putting on a cheerful face when facing the camera that he even did that for his own mugshot.


(Sorry, drifting away a bit from this weighty matter.)

https://twitter.com/DachshundColin/stat ... 07244?s=20

nice take on it

Of course Otis Redding also sang that he was “6 feet 1 weigh 210”

Trump's Jan 6th trial is starting the day before a whole bunch of primary votes on "Super Tuesday". That's going to be a massive headache for the Republican party, and greatly reduces the chances of their voters uniting around an alternative candidate. And raises the chances of Trump being in jail by the time of the party convention.

ETA: The best outcome for the GOP was probably an early trial and verdict (in either direction) - they might get that in Georgia still. But a trial starting just as 1/3 of the delegates for the party convention are voted on is going to juice pro-Trump turnout in the GOP primary, and ensure that a huge number of the delegates at the convention will be full Trump and no-one else as they try to select a nominee who isn't in jail and who won't be disqualified from the ballot in some states.

Seeing as the president can't pardon someone found guilty of a state crime, and the Georgia state governor can't pardon someone unless they have served 5 years in jail, if the turn-out for Trump from the MAGA-hats is enough to get him the presidency, can the White House be designated part of the Georgia State Penitentiary for 4 years?

Martin_B wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 1:16 am Seeing as the president can't pardon someone found guilty of a state crime, and the Georgia state governor can't pardon someone unless they have served 5 years in jail, if the turn-out for Trump from the MAGA-hats is enough to get him the presidency, can the White House be designated part of the Georgia State Penitentiary for 4 years?

If they did some sort of house arrest, I bet he'd have to stay in Georgia. I'm pretty sure I've seen a white house there before.

But I heard someone talking on the radio the other day, unfortunately she reckoned that if he ends up winning the election and gets jail time, they'd probably delay the start of his porridge till after his term as president.

Martin_B wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 1:16 am Seeing as the president can't pardon someone found guilty of a state crime, and the Georgia state governor can't pardon someone unless they have served 5 years in jail, if the turn-out for Trump from the MAGA-hats is enough to get him the presidency, can the White House be designated part of the Georgia State Penitentiary for 4 years?

There's no chance of him winning the presidency if he's jailed - there's not a high chance even if he's the nominee and not jailed yet.

Several states will likely try to exclude him from the ballot on the grounds of the 14th Amendment if either Jan 6th prosecution goes against him - at least one person has already been removed from office because of Jan 6th, and the New Mexico State Supreme Court upheld that. It's quite likely that there will be court challenges to his inclusion on the ballot in multiple states running up and through election day.

None of this is going to get independents and non-MAGA Republicans to vote for him, and it will drive turnout for Democrats and ordinary voters. He only won in 2016 because quite a few young voters didn't bother to turnout to vote for Clinton. Now after Dobbs, Republicans are not winning elections they they are expected to, because young people, and particularly women, are voting against them.

That assumes Biden doesn't have a health crisis.

And a bunch of other scenarios in the next year, from a domestic political scandal to a Saudi-Iran war.

There are a lot of very low probability events that add up to a reasonable risk of Trump winning.

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:56 am That assumes Biden doesn't have a health crisis.

And a bunch of other scenarios in the next year, from a domestic political scandal to a Saudi-Iran war.

There are a lot of very low probability events that add up to a reasonable risk of Trump winning.

And there's a lot that add up to him being even more likely to lose.

Bet the Republic on a old man staying fit and well for 1 year 2 months. What could go wrong?

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:03 pm Bet the Republic on a old man staying fit and well for 1 year 2 months. What could go wrong?

I’m worried. On the other hand Trump is only marginally younger than Biden and at least as likely to have his own health crisis.

Oh my God. Can you imagine the conspiracy theories if he drops dead of a heart attack?

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:03 pm Bet the Republic on a old man staying fit and well for 1 year 2 months. What could go wrong?

I'll bet on Biden, who regularly does exercise and keeps himself fit, staying fit and well for longer than Trump.

That's like betting you're not going to fall of the edge of a cliff while walking close.

It is not all that likely you will fall off a cliff, I agree. But it's bl..dy uncomfortable to watch it play out.

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:03 pm Bet the Republic on a old man staying fit and well for 1 year 2 months. What could go wrong?

Trump and Biden have pretty similar chances of dying in the next year, 0.050 vs 0.066 (depending on how average they are) - clicky (ignoring the obvious overweightness of one candidate).

I think this age stuff might be a glass half full/half empty thing.

Hopefully Biden will do a fourth-term-Roosevelt - get elected, almost immediately die.

monkey wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:30 pm

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:03 pm Bet the Republic on a old man staying fit and well for 1 year 2 months. What could go wrong?

Trump and Biden have pretty similar chances of dying in the next year, 0.050 vs 0.066 (depending on how average they are) - clicky (ignoring the obvious overweightness of one candidate).

I think this age stuff might be a glass half full/half empty thing.

But it's not just dying.

Need to add on heart attack, cancer diagnosis, stroke, falling and breaking a hip, dementia diagnosis...

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:24 pm

monkey wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:30 pm

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:03 pm Bet the Republic on a old man staying fit and well for 1 year 2 months. What could go wrong?

Trump and Biden have pretty similar chances of dying in the next year, 0.050 vs 0.066 (depending on how average they are) - clicky (ignoring the obvious overweightness of one candidate).

I think this age stuff might be a glass half full/half empty thing.

But it's not just dying.

Need to add on heart attack, cancer diagnosis, stroke, falling and breaking a hip, dementia diagnosis...

A lot of Biden opponents are convinced he has dementia already

Grumble wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:48 pm

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:24 pm

monkey wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:30 pm

Trump and Biden have pretty similar chances of dying in the next year, 0.050 vs 0.066 (depending on how average they are) - clicky (ignoring the obvious overweightness of one candidate).

I think this age stuff might be a glass half full/half empty thing.

But it's not just dying.

Need to add on heart attack, cancer diagnosis, stroke, falling and breaking a hip, dementia diagnosis...

A lot of Biden opponents are convinced he has dementia already

And Trump has delusional thoughts all the time.

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 9:24 pm

monkey wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 7:30 pm

lpm wrote: Tue Aug 29, 2023 2:03 pm Bet the Republic on a old man staying fit and well for 1 year 2 months. What could go wrong?

Trump and Biden have pretty similar chances of dying in the next year, 0.050 vs 0.066 (depending on how average they are) - clicky (ignoring the obvious overweightness of one candidate).

I think this age stuff might be a glass half full/half empty thing.

But it's not just dying.

Need to add on heart attack, cancer diagnosis, stroke, falling and breaking a hip, dementia diagnosis...

The chances of that stuff is going to be pretty similar too, given we know f.ck all about their health outside of Trump being a fat bastard.

Only concentrating on Biden's age/health is bobbins.

Trump's health has nothing to do with the outcome so can be ignored.

Nothing much happens in next year - Biden wins
Trump has health crisis - Biden wins
Biden has health crisis - Trump has a chance

lpm wrote: Wed Aug 30, 2023 7:12 am Trump's health has nothing to do with the outcome so can be ignored.

60% chance Nothing much happens in next year - Biden wins
20% chance Trump has health crisis - Biden wins
20% chance Biden has health crisis - Trump has a chance

(Strawman probabilities added by me.)

Ignoring the second outcome turns a 20% (1:4) likelihood of Trump having a shot into a 25% (1:3) chance of Trump having a shot.

dyqik wrote: Wed Aug 30, 2023 5:27 pm

lpm wrote: Wed Aug 30, 2023 7:12 am Trump's health has nothing to do with the outcome so can be ignored.

60% chance Nothing much happens in next year - Biden wins
20% chance Trump has health crisis - Biden wins
20% chance Biden has health crisis - Trump has a chance

(Strawman probabilities added by me.)

Ignoring the second outcome turns a 20% (1:4) likelihood of Trump having a shot into a 25% (1:3) chance of Trump having a shot.

One case of this isn't so bad, but do it several times for different low but not insignificant probability events, and you start thinking about 1 in 100 outcomes as 1 in 5.

(the biggest health issue in the US politics/legislature appears to be Mitch McConnell right now. If he isn't in control of the more delusional GOP senators, the wheels could really fall off the public face of the GOP before the election)