Scrutable

When you’ve lost Bramhall Parkrun…
(Bramhall is fairly well to do, for those who aren’t lucky enough to be from Stockport and environs.)

jimbob wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 7:58 am
At least one was Andrea Leadsom so not the brightest (even amongst the population of Tory MPs)


https://news.sky.com/story/tory-ministe ... s-13142247

From the same:

Meanwhile, former leader of the Scottish Conservatives Ruth Davidson criticised those plotting against the prime minister.

"This group of people are being such paper tigers," she told the podcast.

"At any other point that they could have stepped in to really do something, to think they can now do a rear-guard action to stop a general election once Pandora is out of the bl..dy box."

Where do you start?

tenchboy wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 9:01 am

jimbob wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 7:58 am
At least one was Andrea Leadsom so not the brightest (even amongst the population of Tory MPs)


https://news.sky.com/story/tory-ministe ... s-13142247

From the same:

Meanwhile, former leader of the Scottish Conservatives Ruth Davidson criticised those plotting against the prime minister.

"This group of people are being such paper tigers," she told the podcast.

"At any other point that they could have stepped in to really do something, to think they can now do a rear-guard action to stop a general election once Pandora is out of the bl..dy box."

Where do you start?

Ouch.

That is painful to read

jimbob wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 6:27 am

Woodchopper wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 5:57 am

Grumble wrote: Thu May 23, 2024 10:00 pm

Whatever you think of Brexit it’s not a good idea to rerun the referendum on it so soon. It’s entirely plausible that we can have a decent relationship with Europe outside of the EU. Maybe in another 10 years, possibly more, we can have another think about it. If you think there’s a popular mood of returning to the EU then you’re in a bubble.

And minimal interest in the EU on reopening negotiations in the near future. Of course they’d like Britain to rejoin eventually. But right now it’s an issue that they’d like to remain on the back burner while the EU and it’s members deal with more pressing problems.

Yes the UK sentiment towards applying to join has to be overwhelming. Probably 2/3 majority in any referendum.

It's not there yet but might be by the end of the next parliament

I agree, and in addition to a decisive majority there would need to be a cross party consensus on rejoining. After everything that's happened, Britain wouldn't be credible if any progress in negotiations was likely to be reversed at the next election.

Of course the consensus wouldn't have to include Reform or whoever the Faragists are called in the future, nor the Ulster unionist parties. But there would need to be agreement on rejoining, and broadly under what terms, among Labour and the Conservatives, and most or all of the others (Greens, Liberals, Scottish and Welsh nationalists). If all those parties were on board there would likely be a long-term rejoin majority in parliament whatever the outcome of an election. The EU and its members wouldn't have to worry about the UK bouncing in and out again.

Such a cross-party consensus isn't unfeasible, it has existed concerning NATO for decades.

So Corbyn has decided to run as an independent in Islington: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c288xxvrdz7o

Of course he has. His ego wouldn't allow him not to. What will be funny is how this screws over his supporters in the party and outside it. They'll either need to risk expulsion from the party for supporting him, or risk the ire of their own supporters online if they choose not to. Either way, it's very very funny.

On the other hand, (assuming it's still true) a sitting MP who get defeated gets a larger MP's pension than if they don't stand at all. Could be just enhancing his pension.

Lew Dolby wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 12:53 pm On the other hand, (assuming it's still true) a sitting MP who get defeated gets a larger MP's pension than if they don't stand at all. Could be just enhancing his pension.

Little bit from column A, little bit from column B.

Though I do thing there's a big ego element to it. His ego is huge.

Two new polls today, from Techne and WeThink. Both show a tory drop and a Labour rise, putting the new 14-day average tory support at 22.6%. Just half a point to go for it to be their lowest in this parliament, even accounting for Truss.

Lew Dolby wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 12:53 pm On the other hand, (assuming it's still true) a sitting MP who get defeated gets a larger MP's pension than if they don't stand at all. Could be just enhancing his pension.

I am skeptical about the getting paid more thing if you stand, given the large number of Tories who have decided to go "Nah f.ck that sh.t".

I have just looked at the candidate list (so far) for our shiny new constituency. Unless there's a typo, the Tory and Green candidates appear to have exactly the same name. That's going to confuse some of the more hard of thinking members of the electorate.

Lew Dolby wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 12:53 pm On the other hand, (assuming it's still true) a sitting MP who get defeated gets a larger MP's pension than if they don't stand at all. Could be just enhancing his pension.

GoVe is opting out of this, though.

I wonder how many more rats will leave the sinking ship?

The Tories are going to have as bad a time as Reform fielding candidates at this rate (although with Reform, it was mainly through people digging into their initial list's backgrounds and finding they were out and out racists/fascists).

It’s quite amazing that Gove is not standing. Next we’ll hear that Hunt isn’t standing (I hope).

FlammableFlower wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 6:35 pm I wonder how many more rats will leave the sinking ship?

Many keen to avoid their own "Portillo-moment" on TV.

Grumble wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 7:21 pm It’s quite amazing that Gove is not standing. Next we’ll hear that Hunt isn’t standing (I hope).

All those missed 'Portillo moments' though - but I guess, too many would dilute them.
On the other hand, Sunak OK'd significant levels of dilution during his announcement.

For a dream "Portillo-moment"

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ is giving me Jacob Rees-Mogg on current polling numbers

Oh no, how will parliament cope without the talents of Andrea Leadsom? (Rhetorical)

bob sterman wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 8:50 pm For a dream "Portillo-moment"

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ is giving me Jacob Rees-Mogg on current polling numbers

Hell's teeth, I hope that site's predictions are accurate, they've got Labout overturning a 14% lead to boot out the Tories where I live!

And now Rish! is taking a day off from campaigning after a gruelling 3 days.

Grumble wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 7:21 pm It’s quite amazing that Gove is not standing. Next we’ll hear that Hunt isn’t standing (I hope).

Hunt has said that he's standing, although the changes to the electorate boundaries means that he's probably more secure than before.

He is currently the MP for Surrey South West, which includes Farnham, Godalming and Haslemere. Godalming and Haslemere are pretty secure Tory areas, while Farnham is leaning LibDem with some wards (the council estates) decidedly Labour.

Godalming has been moved to a new electorate where it's joining with the area south of Guildford and will remain a safe Tory seat. Hunt is standing in here. Farnham is joining with Bordon, in East Hampshire, which is also more LibDem/Labour leaning.

FlammableFlower wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 10:08 pm

bob sterman wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 8:50 pm For a dream "Portillo-moment"

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ is giving me Jacob Rees-Mogg on current polling numbers

Hell's teeth, I hope that site's predictions are accurate, they've got Labout overturning a 14% lead to boot out the Tories where I live!

It has Labour still 3rd in my constituency, but only 1-2 points behind the Tories. If we could push the Tories into 3rd that would be a result.

Martin_B wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 10:46 pm

Grumble wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 7:21 pm It’s quite amazing that Gove is not standing. Next we’ll hear that Hunt isn’t standing (I hope).

Hunt has said that he's standing, although the changes to the electorate boundaries means that he's probably more secure than before.

He is currently the MP for Surrey South West, which includes Farnham, Godalming and Haslemere. Godalming and Haslemere are pretty secure Tory areas, while Farnham is leaning LibDem with some wards (the council estates) decidedly Labour.

Godalming has been moved to a new electorate where it's joining with the area south of Guildford and will remain a safe Tory seat. Hunt is standing in here. Farnham is joining with Bordon, in East Hampshire, which is also more LibDem/Labour leaning.

All depends on EPDs tactical voting percentage. Hunt's new constituency has a reasonable Labour component. A 20% switch to LibDem would kick Hunt out.

It is prime LibDem territory. They will win Guildford easily (it has previously been a LibDem seat). They'll get Woking. Esher. The south west corridor out of London is for some reason LibDemy, all the way to Winchester.

What looks like prosperous stockbroker Surrey is these days Labour/LibDem. University educated, well-off, remain, socially Liberal, economically Conservative but walloped by mortgage costs.

bob sterman wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 8:40 pm

FlammableFlower wrote: Fri May 24, 2024 6:35 pm I wonder how many more rats will leave the sinking ship?

Many keen to avoid their own "Portillo-moment" on TV.

This election is a write off. If their unsatisfied ambitions want another chance in future it might help to be untainted by humiliating defeat this time.

Rishi's day off to reset is interesting.

No idea what they might try. I've got nothing. All options are bad.

1. Keep on with Sunak presidential touring, a one man band. Trouble is he's terrible at it. And it gets boring. This isn't America, with a big entertaining show.

2. Cabinet ministers doing the usual rounds. But they're all hopeless. Because they change jobs every 6 months few people know who the education minister is or the Home Office or any of the cast. Cameron is a big name but has checked out already. Will be interesting to see if Hunt goes national for the party or stays home to save his own seat. Mordaunt is known but she tends to keep her head down.

3. Unleash the fascist wing. Let Badenoch and Co bash immigrants and wokies. But culture war hasn't been working for them, why would it suddenly start now? Reform wants an election fought on that battlefield. It is unusual for any election to stray too far from NHS, education and the economy - but this year if it does it'll be on sewage.

4. "Labour is an uncertain risk, stick with what you know". Just doesn't play, because Tory infighting means nobody expects stable government. Hunt could stand up to say trust me with the economy - but Reeves will point out he'll be fired in 6 months. Change is more stable than continuity.

5. Dirty tricks. Too late in the day. Crooks and liars can't plausibly throw mud.

Anyone got any ideas I can pass on to Tory HQ?

Plant some drugs on starmer, that's it.