Scrutable

bjn wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:52 pm

Herainestold wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:31 pm Elon Musk has some ideas

Ukraine-Russia Peace:

- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.

- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).

- Water supply to Crimea assured.

- Ukraine remains neutral.

https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1576 ... 31296000#m

He's an a..eh.le, generally full of sh.t, so I'm not sure why you think it's worth considering his political ideas.

Elon’s name attached to an idea doesn’t automatically make me think it’s going to be good.

Herainestold wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:31 pm Elon Musk has some ideas

Ukraine-Russia Peace:

- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.

- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).

- Water supply to Crimea assured.

- Ukraine remains neutral.

https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1576 ... 31296000#m

The election thing makes sense for Crimea. If the war gets to the point that Ukraine looks like it will be able to retake it, or there's a peace agreed before that, a UN administered period followed by a fresh referendum would make sense. Giving time for Ukrainians who have left to return. The rest is b.llsh.t.

Herainestold wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:57 pm

bob sterman wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:38 pm

Herainestold wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:31 pm Elon Musk has some ideas



https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1576 ... 31296000#m

And build a kid sized submarine!!!!

If you are so smart why aren't you rich?

I'm not as good at inheriting the wealth generated by apartheid-era mines.

Crimea is another matter- you have to give him something

He can have a nice lamp post to swing from.

If he doesn't like that, he can have a bullet. It is traditional for people like him to arrange it themselves, along with a cyanide pill.

Though I'm sure plenty of people would also be willing to give him a kicking, too.

Putin is weak. There is no need for those who are strong - like the west - and determined - like Ukraine - to appease the weak by letting them have what is not theirs.

Neutrality is a good option and should be adopted by all the former Warsaw Pact countries, as it would keep them safer, by giving Russia buffer against NATO.

Neutrality and the abandonment of much military strength is what left Ukraine vulnerable. Defensive alliances are the best way for democracies to face down tyrannies. A similar approach for Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan and so on to face down the Beijing fascists would be a good idea.

Herainestold wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:57 pm

bob sterman wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:38 pm

Herainestold wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:31 pm Elon Musk has some ideas



https://nitter.net/elonmusk/status/1576 ... 31296000#m

And build a kid sized submarine!!!!

If you are so smart why aren't you rich? And then there is Elon.

I can't see re-doing the elections--much of the original population has fled and Russians have moved in.
Maybe after the Russians have been gone for five years..

Crimea is another matter- you have to give him something, let him have Crimea, where most of the people are Russian.

Neutrality is a good option and should be adopted by all the former Warsaw Pact countries, as it would keep them safer, by giving Russia buffer against NATO.

Stop taking agency away from Ukrainian. WTF should they want to be a buffer state, what is bad about being in NATO?

Ukraine is entitled to reparations.

They won't get any of course. But at least they'll get back Crimea.

Herainestold wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 5:57 pm
If you are so smart why aren't you rich? And then there is Elon.

I can't see re-doing the elections--much of the original population has fled and Russians have moved in.
Maybe after the Russians have been gone for five years..

Crimea is another matter- you have to give him something, let him have Crimea, where most of the people are Russian.

Neutrality is a good option and should be adopted by all the former Warsaw Pact countries, as it would keep them safer, by giving Russia buffer against NATO.

A) being rich is not a mark of worth as a human being.
B) neutrality which cannot be enforced is not neutrality. The most successful option seems to being secret banker to every side. Being near Russia or Germany has not been so much of a help.
C) no one wanted to invade Russia. No one even bl..dy tried. No one has even being making threats. The ex Eastblock countries who joined NATO all did so because Russia znd/or the Soviet Union have marched in and wrecked the joint in the not so distant past. The issue is Russia's treatment of other countries, not Russia's treatment by other countries.

Also, D) Musk, really? Come on.

temptar wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:45 pm C) no one wanted to invade Russia. No one even bl..dy tried. No one has even being making threats. The ex Eastblock countries who joined NATO all did so because Russia znd/or the Soviet Union have marched in and wrecked the joint in the not so distant past. The issue is Russia's treatment of other countries, not Russia's treatment by other countries.

Ukraine was offering permanent neutrality in February. It didn't stop the invasion, because it never was about neutrality.

And Russia's stripping their troops from the Baltic borders to feed the invasion. The Finns could basically walk to St Petersburg right now if they wanted. Russia knows that isn't on the cards, even though the Finns did have territory taken from them by force by the Soviet Union during the period of its alliance with Nazi Germany.

bob sterman wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:10 pm

Being good at making cars and launching rockets does not necessarily make one good at rescuing kids from caves, solving geopolitical crises and ending wars.

If Putin gets what he wants - the war will stop. So Elon is not exactly demonstrating the "out-of-the-box" thinking he's supposed to be famous for - by simply listing a load of stuff Putin wants as a means to end the war.

I agree with you. I just thought it might be interesting to discuss Elon's suggestions. Even if they are nonsensical.

If there was some kind of robust enforceable neutrality, I think that would be an alternative to NATO.

Herainestold wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:47 pm

bob sterman wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:10 pm

Being good at making cars and launching rockets does not necessarily make one good at rescuing kids from caves, solving geopolitical crises and ending wars.

If Putin gets what he wants - the war will stop. So Elon is not exactly demonstrating the "out-of-the-box" thinking he's supposed to be famous for - by simply listing a load of stuff Putin wants as a means to end the war.

I agree with you. I just thought it might be interesting to discuss Elon's suggestions. Even if they are nonsensical.

If there was some kind of robust enforceable neutrality, I think that would be an alternative to NATO.

If there was a giant magic watermelon that could prevent people from invading other countries, that would be f.cking fantasic. But there isn't.

I mean there is a giant watermelon in northern Kherson, and I can't be certain it isn't magic, but it evidently does not prevent invasions.

Herainestold wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 8:47 pm

bob sterman wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:10 pm

Being good at making cars and launching rockets does not necessarily make one good at rescuing kids from caves, solving geopolitical crises and ending wars.

If Putin gets what he wants - the war will stop. So Elon is not exactly demonstrating the "out-of-the-box" thinking he's supposed to be famous for - by simply listing a load of stuff Putin wants as a means to end the war.

I agree with you. I just thought it might be interesting to discuss Elon's suggestions. Even if they are nonsensical.

If there was some kind of robust enforceable neutrality, I think that would be an alternative to NATO.

By who? The magic neutrality enforcing pixie? What is bad about joining NATO?

ETA: Or the neutrality enforcing melon, having just seen EACL's post.

Worth pointing out that Musk's phrasing - "Kruschev's Mistake" - is used in Russian propaganda and literally nowhere else prior to him using it. So he's mainlining Russian b.llsh.t, or repeating things from people who are.

Stolen from twitter, but it does the trick nicely.



I do not believe might makes right. I believe there ought to be solid foundations to international law. I believe the legitimacy of governments stems from the consent and support of the population, not the ability to wield force.

But when the weaker nation is the one that is transgressing against all those principles, then there are two words that adequately cover the situation.

Vae Victus.

The correct move by Russia now is to shoot Putin, pretend to be undefeated in Ukraine and withdraw voluntarily, then cling on to Crimea.

It would be hard, I think, for Ukraine to keep the war going to recapture Crimea. It genuinely is different to the rest of Ukraine. And so many lives have been lost. Not sure if Crimea can be captured by force, unless Zelensky is prepared to reduce it with endless artillery.

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:11 pm Worth pointing out that Musk's phrasing - "Kruschev's Mistake" - is used in Russian propaganda and literally nowhere else prior to him using it. So he's mainlining Russian b.llsh.t, or repeating things from people who are.

Response from Ukraine

https://mobile.twitter.com/VeraMBergen/ ... 0999970816

https://nitter.net/wartranslated/status ... 00058624#m

Link to a video that has no violence, just soldiers talking, with subtitles.

It show Russian officers treating LPR troops like canon fodder. Russian soldiers were given the order to retreat from Drobysheve which was being held by LPR and Russian troops. They were also given orders not to inform the LPR troops of the withdrawal and were all going to f.ck off in the middle of the night leaving the LPR troops to hold the bag for them. Some Russian soldiers told them

Can’t imagine this will enamour LPR* denizens to being under Russia much.

*sorry, new minted Russian citizens.

Musk doesn't learn when to stop. Starlink was fantastic for Ukraine. If he'd stopped there or just asked what else they needed, he'd have been fine. Lauded even. But no, he had to try and be clever.

He's so thin skinned, can't take criticism. https://twitter.com/somebadideas/status ... H2k3emV11A

Elliot Higgins (Bellingcat) has a twitter thread on why some people earnestly believe the West is at fault in opposing an imperialist war. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status ... NOmSBPvvgw

Pishwish wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:20 pm He's so thin skinned, can't take criticism. https://twitter.com/somebadideas/status ... H2k3emV11A

I'd say "stay in your lane", but we all know Teslas don't.

Being reported (Guardian) that Putin has formally signed laws to annex the regions... took him longer than I expected.

They were caught out by the voting. Hadn't expected the results to go the way they did, and therefore hadn't done any of the paperwork in advance, no siree.

TimW wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:49 pm They were caught out by the voting. Hadn't expected the results to go the way they did, and therefore hadn't done any of the paperwork in advance, no siree.

lolz

Timothy Snyder essay about the improbability of a nuclear strike (but why it keeps being hinted at) and how a power struggle in Russia might end the war instead.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does- ... ainian-war

TimW wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:34 am Timothy Snyder essay about the improbability of a nuclear strike (but why it keeps being hinted at) and how a power struggle in Russia might end the war instead.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does- ... ainian-war

That is a great piece of writing and thought - thanks for sharing it. Time will tell if he's right but I think that scenario is greater than evens.

Something along those lines seems plausible but also worrying. The prospect of Putin being overthrown by Kadyrov or Prigozhin is not an inviting one.