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Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:45 am
by shpalman
Italy did that not because of the death toll but because people were taking the piss regarding jogging and dog walking.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:48 am
by Stephanie
sTeamTraen wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:19 pm
bob sterman wrote: Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:21 pm
With Matt Hancock turning up at the opening of the Nightingale Hospital not looking 100%.
Does anyone know - where did the UK get the scientific evidence to support its 7 day isolation period for people with symptoms of COVID-19 (and in Hancock's case confirmed to have it)?
I've been following the published research since January and have not seen anything to justify such a short isolation period in confirmed cases.
Shirley this will be a per-case thing, and the time until you are symptom-free and/or non-contagious will depend to a very large extent on how far through the illness you are when tested?
For example, suppose the whole Cabinet got tested on the same day (not unreasonable --- they are running the country FFS, the people going "Oh well it's all very well for Boris Johnson to get a test, what about the nurses????!?!??!1??" are somewhat missing the point) and Hancock had been having very mild (or even zero) symptoms for a couple of weeks by that time? Having the test doesn't restart any sort of biological clock and doesn't tell us when you will be clear, even if everybody's progression was the same.
My brother was told it was fine to go out after a week, as long as his symptoms had improved and he hadn't had a fever for 48 hours.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:19 am
by greyspoke
Closing parks but not actually preventing people from travelling to take exercise may cause more people to travel to find some open space to exercise in. People round here are taking the 2m thing seriously, but in crowded places it leads to some delicate stand-off situations. Everyone is being very polite about it though. Narrow paths where you can't see the other end of the narrow bit are obviously high-risk.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:30 am
by Woodchopper
shpalman wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:45 am
Italy did that not because of the death toll but because people were taking the piss regarding jogging and dog walking.
Fair enough. We’ll have to see how many people in Britain are over enthusiastic about the sunny weather over the weekend.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:05 am
by badger
Woodchopper wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:30 am
shpalman wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:45 am
Italy did that not because of the death toll but because people were taking the piss regarding jogging and dog walking.
Fair enough. We’ll have to see how many people in Britain are over enthusiastic about the sunny weather over the weekend.
The timing of BoJo's letter (on the doormat this morning) gives a very clear subtext to this effect. It's practically dripping in "we know there's a corker of a Spring weekend in store, please control the urge to go out and have at it".
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:32 am
by shpalman
Well it would certainly be a disaster here to try to relax the restrictions in mid April: the 25th of April and the 1st of May are public holidays and if everyone decides to do two month's worth of clogging up the touristy places in the one week bridge between them, then the whole thing will blow up again.
We will need to let people get slowly back to work but the "unnecessary" stuff has to wait.
No big yay-the-pandemic-is-over party or else it will be very not over at all.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:20 am
by Gfamily
Data from the COVID-19 Symptom Tracker App
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
The higher than average rate of symptoms reported in Cheltenham and the Cotswolds is interesting.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:03 pm
by Bird on a Fire
shpalman wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:32 am
Well it would certainly be a disaster here to try to relax the restrictions in mid April: the 25th of April and the 1st of May are public holidays and if everyone decides to do two month's worth of clogging up the touristy places in the one week bridge between them, then the whole thing will blow up again.
Heh, we have the same dates - 25th of April is Liberation Day in Portugal (start of the revolution against the dictatorship in 1974; first free elections in 1975), and 1st of May is Labour Day.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:16 pm
by Martin Y
Gfamily wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:20 am
Data from the COVID-19 Symptom Tracker App
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
The higher than average rate of symptoms reported in Cheltenham and the Cotswolds is interesting.
One notes of course the Cheltenham Festival in the middle of March was one of the last big public events before everything stopped.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:26 pm
by shpalman
Martin Y wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:16 pm
Gfamily wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:20 am
Data from the COVID-19 Symptom Tracker App
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
The higher than average rate of symptoms reported in Cheltenham and the Cotswolds is interesting.
One notes of course the Cheltenham Festival in the middle of March was one of the last big public events
before after everything
should have stopped.
... but they
complied with the government guidance at the time, I'm shocked that the virus didn't respect that.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:40 pm
by shpalman
More than 70 cases is 71 cases WHY DO JOURNALISTS DO THIS
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:47 pm
by bob sterman
Gfamily wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:20 am
Data from the COVID-19 Symptom Tracker App
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
The higher than average rate of symptoms reported in Cheltenham and the Cotswolds is interesting.
I clicked on the FAQ section hoping to see an explanation of how the creators of this take self-reported COVID-19 symptoms reported by smartphone owners who've downloaded an app, and use these to create estimates for the general population prevalence of symptomatic COVID-19 in various geographical regions.
They are esimating that in some London boroughs - 6-7% of the population have symptomatic COVID-19. Would be interested to see their workings.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:01 pm
by shpalman
- FB_IMG_1586005186615.jpg (84.09 KiB) Viewed 7102 times
The percentage daily increase averaged over the last five days, region by region.
The caption gives the increases in the numbers of swabs ("tamponi") performed, which will of course increase the numbers of positives.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:20 pm
by Stranger Mouse
Critical incident declared in Watford Hospital
Also in Watford
https://www.watfordobserver.co.uk/news/ ... bury-park/
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:26 pm
by Stranger Mouse
While I'm on here this is a f.cking awesome podcast on coronavirus airborne v aerosol
https://gimletmedia.com/shows/science-vs/v4heg36
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:42 pm
by shpalman
Castiglione d'Adda is a small town near Codogno which had 4665 inhabitants in 2017 but probably has less than that now.
40 out of 60 prospective blood donors (out of the town's total of 130 active donors) had positive swabs for SARS-CoV-19, despite being completely asymptomatic.
But then it says that out of the 20 who were negative, only a few could donate because they lacked sufficient numbers of the antibodies, or something; I'm sure that when I heard about this on the news a day or two ago it was that 70% of donors had covid antibodies in their blood.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:53 pm
by Nero
Just so happened that I have just listened to that, it was very good.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:12 pm
by Woodchopper
From the link:
Cassiobury Park car park has been closed after “thousands” of people risked their lives and others by choosing to flout government Covid-19 guidelines and 'picnic in the sun'.
It may be shut permanently.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:36 pm
by Trinucleus
shpalman wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:32 am
Well it would certainly be a disaster here to try to relax the restrictions in mid April: the 25th of April and the 1st of May are public holidays and if everyone decides to do two month's worth of clogging up the touristy places in the one week bridge between them, then the whole thing will blow up again.
We will need to let people get slowly back to work but the "unnecessary" stuff has to wait.
No big yay-the-pandemic-is-over party or else it will be very not over at all.
The May holiday has been moved to the 8th to celebrate my 65th birthday (also something to do with the war), so it would be good to relax restrictions for people with an Air bnb booking
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:42 pm
by purplehaze
Thankfully not so warm today in the North West.
Chilly with a hint of sunshine and warmth. Not too much seasoning.
Stay safe.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:18 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Google have made a site using their creepy tracking, where you can put in a location and see trends in how the community has (or has not) responded to coronavirus restrictions
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:28 pm
by shpalman
You can see for example that in Bavaria they're all still going to the park.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:09 pm
by shpalman
Well, Italy has fewer deaths to report today as compared to yesterday. Also, there are actually fewer patients in the ICU in total (yesterday 4068, today 3994).
There are daily variations in the numbers of new cases, especially because of variations of the numbers of swabs taken, so it's not clear to me whether R is effectively slightly more or slightly less than unity.
It's estimated that the lockdown has saved at least 30,000 lives.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:12 am
by shpalman
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:00 am
by shpalman
As of today, to go outside in Lombardy you need either a face mask or at least to cover your nose and mouth with a scarf or something. The official national position continues to be that this isn't necessary. But the Chinese experts who arrived here recently mainly asked two questions: "why are there still so many people outside?" and "why aren't they all wearing masks?"