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Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:11 pm
by bjn
monkey wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:23 pm
Arc furnaces are used to melt scrap steel to make new steel, as described in your link. That is not smelting.
Yep, melting steel scrap into low quality rebar can be done in an arc furnace, which can be powered by cheap renewable electricity.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:17 pm
by sheldrake
bjn wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:11 pm
Yep, melting steel scrap into low quality rebar can be done in an arc furnace, which can be powered by cheap renewable electricity.
I do not know why you are so convinced renewable electricity in the UK is cheap.
Compare global kwh prices
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263 ... countries/
China - $0.09
UK - $0.26
We're currently paying treble what the Chinese are and planning to make it even more expensive.
Note the edit earlier to show electrical smelting was being used as far back as 1910 in the UK and the US. It's just too expensive to compete with until we bring electricity costs down.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:57 pm
by IvanV
plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:21 am
Minford was the economist ...
The politest way to put it is that for much of the later part of his career Minford was a part time economist. The rest of his time was spent on political advocacy. If you look at his publication list on
Wiki article about Minford, you will see it is mostly political advocacy. And mostly based on ideas that were against-the-mainstream in economics, to find another polite way to put it. In the later part of his formal academic career (a while ago now as he is 78), he had very little repute in the profession.
Initially in the Brexit debate, Minford argued that Britain's trade position would be improved by Brexit. His papers on this were widely ridiculed at the time. I suppose you could credit him with a degree of honesty in later saying, which I hadn't read before, that our trade position would be so improved by Brexit we would largely exit manufacturing and farming. You can then decide whether you believe that we would get enough work in other higher value-added trades to make us rich. Like Trump, people like Minford say these seemingly unacceptable things, but it establishes their credentials with a particular political audience.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:05 am
by Gfamily
An image from the 'Fossil Fuel' thread that has some relevance to the cost of Electricity for Steel
Wind is priced at about 3-5 p/kWh
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:09 am
by sheldrake
The ‘certain circumstances’ and definition of subsidy used in that chart are not spelled out and mysteriously fail to explain why electricity is always cheaper in nations that use lots of fossil fuels and our own electricity bills go up much faster than inflation.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:23 am
by sheldrake
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing
In Norway for example, coal power is cheaper than hydroelectric
Norway 1.916 coal-fired power average 7 December 2020
5.8 hydroelectric power average
If you look at the table most countries don't break out their energy costs per source but you'll see higher prices in all the countries trying hard to be 'green' and cheap prices in countries that couldn't care less, like China. It's very likely the costs table you have has a treatment of subsidies etc.. that factors in externalities from fossil fuels which countries still using as much coal as they want simply don't price.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:41 am
by bjn
Gfamily wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:05 am
An image from the 'Fossil Fuel' thread that has some relevance to the cost of Electricity for Steel
Wind is priced at about 3-5 p/kWh
Thanks. I’ve no interest in chasing Sheldrake’s gish gallops down stupid rabbit holes.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:45 am
by sheldrake
You mean you don't have a reply and don't want to acknowledge being wrong about electric smelting or energy costs.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:00 am
by plodder
I *think* they were referring to the OP which is about how a lack of a trade deal with our major partners appears to be having an impact, rather than the awful burden placed on polluters by modern climate policy.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:12 am
by sheldrake
plodder wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:00 am
I *think* they were referring to the OP which is about how a lack of a trade deal with our major partners appears to be having an impact, rather than the awful burden placed on polluters by modern climate policy.
Theres very little impact from it so far, because it only represents a rollback from something Trump threatened in 2018. Most of the damage you’ve seen to UK heavy industry has been from energy costs. I fully accept I’m not going to change your mind about the externalities of fossil fuels, but there are some mitigations you should consider for making our industry compete against countries like China who dont seem to care.
1) much more funding for research on cheaper non-fossil energy
2) carbon tarrifs so you dont just shift the emissions east
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:20 am
by plodder
There’s been very little impact so far because it’s just happened.
From the OP, for people with distraction issues:
“President Biden has signed a deal to end tariffs on steel imports from the EU, which were imposed by his predecessor Donald Trump.
But the agreement does not cover exports from the UK, putting British steelmakers at a disadvantage”.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:57 am
by sheldrake
plodder wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:20 am
There’s been very little impact so far because it’s just happened.
From the OP, for people with distraction issues:
“President Biden has signed a deal to end tariffs on steel imports from the EU, which were imposed by his predecessor Donald Trump.
But the agreement does not cover exports from the UK, putting British steelmakers at a disadvantage”.
Its a rollback to where they were pre-2018. Have you actually checked how (little) steel we exported to the US then? How stee production in the UK was in stark decline before then? You’re ascribing properties to this deal it doesnt really possess whilst ignoring the real issue.
Eta the US gets most of its imported steel from Canada and China and produces plenty of its own because it has shale gas energy (one of Obama’s largest contributions to US economic prospects, if not its carbon footprint)
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:58 am
by plodder
we are still subject to these tariffs, so they haven’t been rolled back for us?
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:00 pm
by sheldrake
plodder wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:58 am
we are still subject to these tariffs, so they haven’t been rolled back for us?
Because we’re still having that discussion, but the critical thing to focus on is that it wont make very much difference whilst Canada and the US use shale gas and China does wtf it wants using coal.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:02 pm
by sheldrake
If you want to be roll back fossil fuel use whilst protecting jobs you have to price in carbon externalities on behalf of countries that refuse to do it themselves using tarrifs, at least until our renewables and nuclear are genuinely cheaper than coal and gas.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:04 pm
by plodder
sheldrake wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:02 pm
If you want to be roll back fossil fuel use whilst protecting jobs you have to price in carbon externalities on behalf of countries that refuse to do it themselves using tarrifs, at least until our renewables and nuclear are genuinely cheaper than coal and gas.
or have trade deals in place
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:06 pm
by sheldrake
The trade deal wont nearly compensate for our difference in energy prices. I know this because british steel was f.cked well before the trump tarrifs these deals roll back.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:18 pm
by Bird on a Fire
sheldrake wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:02 pm
If you want to be roll back fossil fuel use whilst protecting jobs you have to price in carbon externalities on behalf of countries that refuse to do it themselves using tarrifs, at least until our renewables and nuclear are genuinely cheaper than coal and gas.
I agree, and brexit makes it much easier for the UK to get on with doing do. The EU will have heaps of trouble with places like Poland.
Has the UK steel industry suggested such a deal?
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:33 pm
by bjn
Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:18 pm
sheldrake wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:02 pm
If you want to be roll back fossil fuel use whilst protecting jobs you have to price in carbon externalities on behalf of countries that refuse to do it themselves using tarrifs, at least until our renewables and nuclear are genuinely cheaper than coal and gas.
I agree, and brexit makes it much easier for the UK to get on with doing do. The EU will have heaps of trouble with places like Poland.
Has the UK steel industry suggested such a deal?
The EU is implementing a carbon tariff from 2026. I know of no such thing planned for the UK, but I haven't looked hard. Industries inside the EU will need to
buy carbon credits if they wish to pollute. So Polish steelmaking may be somewhat screwed, that's if they are still in the EU given their recent shenanigans.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:43 pm
by plodder
sheldrake wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:06 pm
The trade deal wont nearly compensate for our difference in energy prices. I know this because british steel was f.cked well before the trump tarrifs these deals roll back.
It was f.cked well before we priced in carbon, too. This is why people like Minford think it should be canned.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:59 pm
by Bird on a Fire
bjn wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:33 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:18 pm
sheldrake wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:02 pm
If you want to be roll back fossil fuel use whilst protecting jobs you have to price in carbon externalities on behalf of countries that refuse to do it themselves using tarrifs, at least until our renewables and nuclear are genuinely cheaper than coal and gas.
I agree, and brexit makes it much easier for the UK to get on with doing do. The EU will have heaps of trouble with places like Poland.
Has the UK steel industry suggested such a deal?
The EU is implementing a carbon tariff from 2026. I know of no such thing planned for the UK, but I haven't looked hard. Industries inside the EU will need to
buy carbon credits if they wish to pollute. So Polish steelmaking may be somewhat screwed, that's if they are still in the EU given their recent shenanigans.
So they are - I'd forgotten that, thanks.
The UK and EU were supposed to be "considering" linking their Emissions Trading Schemes after Brexit, but I'm not sure how that's going or whether it's likely to happen. Suggests it should be pretty feasible for the UK to protect its steel industry from undercutting by climate criminals, though.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:11 pm
by sheldrake
This is exactly the kind of thing I don't trust a Tory government to do (too many interests happy to talk greenfuzz for the cameras whilst keeping their business-interest claws firmly in cheap chinese imports) and hope a refreshed Labour party would.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:12 pm
by sheldrake
plodder wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:43 pm
sheldrake wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:06 pm
The trade deal wont nearly compensate for our difference in energy prices. I know this because british steel was f.cked well before the trump tarrifs these deals roll back.
It was f.cked well before we priced in carbon, too. This is why people like Minford think it should be canned.
Maybe. Energy prices triple those of China certainly played their part in the last decade though.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:14 pm
by plodder
IvanV wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:57 pm
plodder wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 10:21 am
Minford was the economist ...
The politest way to put it is that for much of the later part of his career Minford was a part time economist. The rest of his time was spent on political advocacy. If you look at his publication list on
Wiki article about Minford, you will see it is mostly political advocacy. And mostly based on ideas that were against-the-mainstream in economics, to find another polite way to put it. In the later part of his formal academic career (a while ago now as he is 78), he had very little repute in the profession.
Initially in the Brexit debate, Minford argued that Britain's trade position would be improved by Brexit. His papers on this were widely ridiculed at the time. I suppose you could credit him with a degree of honesty in later saying, which I hadn't read before, that our trade position would be so improved by Brexit we would largely exit manufacturing and farming. You can then decide whether you believe that we would get enough work in other higher value-added trades to make us rich. Like Trump, people like Minford say these seemingly unacceptable things, but it establishes their credentials with a particular political audience.
lol yes. I have words for disarmingly honest idiots I work with, too.
Re: UK steel still needs Brexit deal - split from Brexit benefits
Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:19 pm
by sheldrake
Initially in the Brexit debate, Minford argued that Britain's trade position would be improved by Brexit. His papers on this were widely ridiculed at the time.
Many of the people ridiculing these papers made wildly wrong predictions themselves. I would not treat the group think of economists as a strong indicator. eta: Brexit is one of the clearest recent examples of a whole establishment of 'bien pensant' being caught talking bollocks.