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Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 1:05 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Woodchopper wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:47 pm
Mmmmm. I'm not sure that the center is so beleaguered. Over the past few years across Europe the right wing populists have usually failed to take or hold onto power. As well as Spain, Italy and Germany mentioned earlier, there are left wing led coalitions in Sweden and Denmark, and a broad coalition in Belgium. Traditional center right parties are in power in the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Ireland.
Certainly Britain, Poland and Hungary are exceptions. But they don't seem to be part of a general trend.
It kinda seems like the movie from five years ago was The Reactionaries Strike Back whereas the current movie is The Return of The Centre.
Holding offices of power isn't everything, though. Far-right populists are still doing way better than they used to in loads of countries, getting them air time, attention, and the ability to shift the Overton window and push their politics.
Portugal went from a broad-left confidence-and-supply to centre-left majority at the last election, but the big talking point is that the far right went from 1 to 12 MPs, gaining ground from the centre-right.
My impression is that far-right populists are growing, as part of a general trend across Europe, e.g. the formation of the Identity and Democracy group in the EU Parliament etc. Which is a worrying trend given the likely prospects for the next decade: more crises, more refugees and more economic disruption.
Re: France
Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:24 am
by Woodchopper
Bird on a Fire wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 1:05 pm
Woodchopper wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:47 pm
Mmmmm. I'm not sure that the center is so beleaguered. Over the past few years across Europe the right wing populists have usually failed to take or hold onto power. As well as Spain, Italy and Germany mentioned earlier, there are left wing led coalitions in Sweden and Denmark, and a broad coalition in Belgium. Traditional center right parties are in power in the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Ireland.
Certainly Britain, Poland and Hungary are exceptions. But they don't seem to be part of a general trend.
It kinda seems like the movie from five years ago was The Reactionaries Strike Back whereas the current movie is The Return of The Centre.
Holding offices of power isn't everything, though. Far-right populists are still doing way better than they used to in loads of countries, getting them air time, attention, and the ability to shift the Overton window and push their politics.
Portugal went from a broad-left confidence-and-supply to centre-left majority at the last election, but the big talking point is that the far right went from 1 to 12 MPs, gaining ground from the centre-right.
My impression is that far-right populists are growing, as part of a general trend across Europe, e.g. the formation of the Identity and Democracy group in the EU Parliament etc. Which is a worrying trend given the likely prospects for the next decade: more crises, more refugees and more economic disruption.
I agree that there the populist right has far more support than it had ten or twenty years ago. However, someone who quoted WB Yates that "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;" would be going too far. With the exception of the UK, Hungary and Poland, across Europe mainstream centre left and centre right politics has been able to prevent the right wing populists from actually doing very much.
But I agree that it has had an important effect in that the rise of the populist right has shifted the window of what is politically feasible. The Centre holding is a good alternative to the populist right taking over government. But there doesn't seem to be a realistic prospect of anyone further left taking power. But things change.
Re: France
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:01 am
by snoozeofreason
Le Monde have published an interactive map, allowing you to explore the votes, commune by commune.
https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/ar ... 55770.html.
Re: France
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:13 am
by Gfamily
Our local commune voted Macron, but it's surrounded by LePen voting areas - however, they are mostly smaller counts (typo carefully avoided).
Re: France
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 2:53 pm
by Brightonian
Gfamily wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 10:13 am
Our local commune voted Macron, but it's surrounded by LePen voting areas - however, they are mostly smaller counts (typo carefully avoided).
Our commune voted Le Pen, as did most others nearby. People voted in slightly greater numbers than 2017, and with a higher proportion being for Le Pen. It feels a bit Brexity.
Re: France
Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:11 pm
by WFJ
Le Pen apparently said today that after leaving Nato she wants a closer defensive alliance with Russia, once the war in Ukraine is over. Does that actually play well in France at the moment? I thought she was trying to distance herself from Putin.
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 4:19 am
by Woodchopper
EU anti-fraud agency report accuses Le Pen of misappropriating EUR 136 993,99 while she was an MEP between 2004 et 2017, and her party of misappropriating EUR 617 379,77.
Accusation is that they got expenses reimbursed by the EU parliament for what were actually domestic party activities.
Argent public : un rapport accuse Marine Le Pen de détournements, la justice saisie
https://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france ... ice-saisie
French prosecutor studying EU anti-fraud agency report on Le Pen
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fr ... 022-04-17/
Re: France
Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2022 7:09 am
by Woodchopper
Macron 56%, Le Pen 44%
https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/stat ... dRnKWv60ag
Mélenchon supporters seem to be slowly warming to Macron. Though 46% aren’t going to vote and a small minority seem to confirm the horseshoe model of politics. On that I wonder who are the 7% of Jadot supporters who like Le Pen.
https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/stat ... dRnKWv60ag
Re: France
Posted: Tue Apr 19, 2022 11:53 pm
by Woodchopper
And looking at a poll aggregator, the gap continues to widen:
https://electracker.fr/
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:36 pm
by Brightonian
Polls close 19:00 UK time or 20h en français or 06:00 South Pole time (I think, NZST), and there will be an exit poll soon after. Saw a news item this morning saying polling was a bit slower than last time.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:00 pm
by Brightonian
Exit poll says Macron gets 58%.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:03 pm
by shpalman
Officially the winner already or is it just a projection?
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:14 pm
by Brightonian
shpalman wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:03 pm
Officially the winner already or is it just a projection?
Just a projection, but on one of the news channels, BBC or Sky, they keep pointing out that the French exit poll has never, ever, ever been wrong.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:16 pm
by shpalman
Brightonian wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:14 pm
shpalman wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:03 pm
Officially the winner already or is it just a projection?
Just a projection, but on one of the news channels, BBC or Sky, they keep pointing out that the French exit poll has never, ever, ever been wrong.
"According to usually accurate estimates, the current president scored 58.2% of the vote, against 41.8% for the Rassemblement National (National Rally) leader."
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2022 8:21 pm
by EACLucifer
Not a huge fan of Macron, but I am very pleased by how dejected fash are about this result. It looks like things have gone ok in Slovenia, too, though I know approximately nothing about Slovenian politics.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:57 pm
by Herainestold
Will Macron feel he has enough of a mandate to get Putin back to the bargaining table?
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:04 pm
by Bird on a Fire
Herainestold wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:57 pm
Will Macron feel he has enough of a mandate to get Putin back to the bargaining table?
No, with only 58% of the French electorate backing his presidency he'll probably just give up on trying to play a role in the world stage, and focus instead on his domestic priorities like demonizing Muslims, tear-gassing protesters and cutting tax for the wealthy.
Re: France
Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:30 pm
by Herainestold
Bird on a Fire wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:04 pm
Herainestold wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:57 pm
Will Macron feel he has enough of a mandate to get Putin back to the bargaining table?
No, with only 58% of the French electorate backing his presidency he'll probably just give up on trying to play a role in the world stage, and focus instead on his domestic priorities like demonizing Muslims, tear-gassing protesters and cutting tax for the wealthy.
I thought that was Le Pen's policy.
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:25 am
by Bird on a Fire
Herainestold wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:30 pm
Bird on a Fire wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:04 pm
Herainestold wrote: Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:57 pm
Will Macron feel he has enough of a mandate to get Putin back to the bargaining table?
No, with only 58% of the French electorate backing his presidency he'll probably just give up on trying to play a role in the world stage, and focus instead on his domestic priorities like demonizing Muslims, tear-gassing protesters and cutting tax for the wealthy.
I thought that was Le Pen's policy.
Sadly those things are all points of agreement between the two, which is partly why turnout was so low. Le Pen is worse, but Macron is still pretty authoritarian and racist by West European standards.
They differ on Russia though. Putin lost this election.
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:09 am
by Holylol
I messed up this post
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:10 am
by Holylol
Bird on a Fire wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:25 am
Sadly those things are all points of agreement between the two, which is partly why turnout was so low. Le Pen is worse, but Macron is still pretty authoritarian and racist by West European standards.
To write something like that, I am assuming that the news sources you read or listen to are not very diverse...
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:04 am
by Gfamily
In terms of whether the turnout was low, it should be noted that UK hasn't had a higher turnout in any of its General Elections in the last 30 years.
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:34 am
by Bird on a Fire
Holylol wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:10 am
Bird on a Fire wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 12:25 am
Sadly those things are all points of agreement between the two, which is partly why turnout was so low. Le Pen is worse, but Macron is still pretty authoritarian and racist by West European standards.
To write something like that, I am assuming that the news sources you read or listen to are not very diverse...
You disagree?
For instance, stopping girls who wear veils from going to school counts as demonising in my book. Nowhere else in Western Europe targets Muslims (domestically) to the same extent.
Similarly, the security law banning reporting on police officers identities plays right into the hands on those who abuse they're authority. Again, unusual in Western European terms.
This stuff has been reported in mainstream UK and US media throughout his presidency, albeit in more tempered language than my French friends use to talk about him. Sources aren't the issue here.
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:37 am
by Bird on a Fire
Gfamily wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:04 am
In terms of whether the turnout was low, it should be noted that UK hasn't had a higher turnout in any of its General Elections in the last 30 years.
Yeah, it would be a high turnout for Portugal as well. Obviously we want to compare apples with apples here.
Despite the threat of Le Pen, historically low numbers of French voters wanted to actively support either candidate. Macron isn't super popular either.
Re: France
Posted: Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:40 am
by Bird on a Fire
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ay-neither
For instance. But I'm certainly interesting in reading more diverse sources from other French Muslims.