Scrutable

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:21 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:34 pm Yeah I don't think the UK will just waltz into any more substantial agreements with the EU after the past few years. Negotiations like that would probably take more than one premiership and be ripe with opportunities for humiliation.

And anyway after 2019 I don't think Labour will want to make the electoral risk of coming out as an anti-brexit party, having previously lost all their voters in key constituencies despite carefully not having been remainy enough to satisfy remainers at the last election.

Signing up to EFTA or the EU wouldn't take that much negotiation, just a willingness to accept the standard T&Cs. Those aren't bespoke trade agreements.

Membership of EFTA is fairly bespoke. Different member states have been allowed to take different decisions as to whether they join the EU customs area, and whether, and to what extent, they participate in the EU single market and apply EU law. In some cases, different regions of the same country have been able to negotiate different membership terms.

And we can't just sign up to either organisation. They would have to allow us back in, and we would have to negotiate the terms of our re-entry. The EU are unlikely to roll out the red carpet for us, given our previous behaviour, and they would be reluctant to allow us the generous terms and opt-outs that we had before. Gaining the approval of EFTA is potentially even more tricky because our entry would result in it becoming an organisation six times its previous size, with 80% of its population being British, which would have serious affects for both its internal management and for the continuous discussions that manage its partial and bespoke alignments with the EU.

snoozeofreason wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:44 am

dyqik wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:21 pm

Bird on a Fire wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:34 pm Yeah I don't think the UK will just waltz into any more substantial agreements with the EU after the past few years. Negotiations like that would probably take more than one premiership and be ripe with opportunities for humiliation.

And anyway after 2019 I don't think Labour will want to make the electoral risk of coming out as an anti-brexit party, having previously lost all their voters in key constituencies despite carefully not having been remainy enough to satisfy remainers at the last election.

Signing up to EFTA or the EU wouldn't take that much negotiation, just a willingness to accept the standard T&Cs. Those aren't bespoke trade agreements.

Membership of EFTA is fairly bespoke. Different member states have been allowed to take different decisions as to whether they join the EU customs area, and whether, and to what extent, they participate in the EU single market and apply EU law. In some cases, different regions of the same country have been able to negotiate different membership terms.

And we can't just sign up to either organisation. They would have to allow us back in, and we would have to negotiate the terms of our re-entry. The EU are unlikely to roll out the red carpet for us, given our previous behaviour, and they would be reluctant to allow us the generous terms and opt-outs that we had before. Gaining the approval of EFTA is potentially even more tricky because our entry would result in it becoming an organisation six times its previous size, with 80% of its population being British, which would have serious affects for both its internal management and for the continuous discussions that manage its partial and bespoke alignments with the EU.

But it's still easier than trying to negotiate a cakeist deal like BoJo did.

For sure, but that could be framed as plucky underdog going up against the big meanie EU.

Whereas pleading for re-admission and being forced to accept less favourable terms than before the referendum will look like desperate grovelling.

dyqik wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:12 am But it's still easier than trying to negotiate a cakeist deal like BoJo did.

It would probably be a more relaxed process, because there would be no ticking clock to contend with. When our current EU deal was being negotiated, it was a given that we would leave the EU, and we had to do it by January 2021, either with a deal or without. If we applied to join the EU/EFTA there would be no certainty that it would actually happen, and no time limit on how quickly it would happen (EU accession is a notoriously slow process, and the last country to join EFTA was Liechtenstein in 1991, so it's unlikely that we would be dealing with a well-oiled machine). But the absence of any time limit has a downside if what you are looking for is some kind of certainty about future arrangements.

Bird on a Fire wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:23 am For sure, but that could be framed as plucky underdog going up against the big meanie EU.

Whereas pleading for re-admission and being forced to accept less favourable terms than before the referendum will look like desperate grovelling.

Politically, yes. But it'd still be a process heading towards a largely known quantity.

Sciolus wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:35 pm In regard to the wider discussion, there are two distinct questions:
- What should Labour do if they ever get into government?
- How should Labour act to actually win an election?
The first is easy, the second rather harder. I tend to the opinion that a bland "do Brexit better" with a largely unspoken "by reversing it" is the least worst option given current politics.

What should Labour do if they ever get into government?
The first thing they should do is make use of the power to strip british citizens of their citizenship to do so to every single MP who voted for that power.
The second thing they should do is instruct the CPS to prosecute Johnson for conspiracy to commit GBH, which should have been done 20 years ago, and for which there's no statute of limitations (Johsnon himself made it clear that he wishes Starmer had done more while at the CPS to prosecute blonde psychopaths who hide behind comically bad hair and stupid vocal mannerisms for historic crimes)
The 3rd thing they should do is repeal the legislation which permits the first thing
The 4th thing they should do is rejoin the customs union, since there was never a democratic mandate for leaving it

There's probably some time in there to increase funding for HMRCs corporate enforcement arm

dyqik wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:12 am There's probably some time in there to increase funding for HMRCs corporate enforcement arm

Yes indeed. Hire a load of forensic accountants and put a bounty on identification of loopholes - accountants are in it for the money - if they can get a huge payday for explaining how they help their clients to exploit a loophole, then HMRC can close it.
Also prioritise reclaiming money that was paid to tory chums for non-existent or non-functional PPE & prosecute all those involved in fraudulent acqusition of such money.
Increase funding for the courts to remove the backlog and permit prosecution of the tory chums.
CPO for Drax's land and cover it with wind turbines
Ditto Greased-Hogg
Legislate to ensure that Christopher Chope is denied the protection of the law
Fix trust in politics:
Make lying to parliament a criminal offence;
Bring in an obligation for politicians to tell the truth in public statements at all times, including when they are campaigning in referenda;
If a winning politician is found to have lied in the documentation they sent to would-be constituents or on the side of a bus or similar, then that constituency result is declared null & void & a bye-election called, in which the incumbent cannot stand;
Compulsory voting, but with a None Of The Above option. If NOTA wins, then the election is held again no more than 1 month later. Anyone beaten by NOTA cannot stand in that constituency at the next election for that constituency