Scrutable

It seems Lukashenko may have bolted for Turkey during the night...

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 3550333954

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 5:22 am Aric Toler thread: https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Michael Weiss thread: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

The problem following events is that the Russian armed forces, Wagner and Russian government are all liars.

There are also a lot of excitable people on social media who tend to believe everything that conforms to what they want to see.

(shamelessly stolen)

2021: Russian Army is the second strongest army in the world
2022: Russian Army is the second strongest army in Ukraine
2023: Russian Army is the second strongest army in Russia

So Putin just said...

And those who have organised an armed rebellion will be held accountable. Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions.

Looks like it is going to get very very messy.

bjn wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:10 am So Putin just said...

And those who have organised an armed rebellion will be held accountable. Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions.

Looks like it is going to get very very messy.

The question is what side people come down on. So far, the army's largely avoided fighting back. Some have surrendered to Prigozhin's thugs. There's a pretty high chance that some will join them, the question is how many.

This is going to get extremely ugly extremely fast, and I don't think that's avoidable at this point.

From a Ukrainian point of view, it's a brilliant opportunity. Take a little while to see what impacts this starts to have, and then work to exploit them as much as possible.

bjn wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:10 am So Putin just said...

And those who have organised an armed rebellion will be held accountable. Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions.

Looks like it is going to get very very messy.

Wagner's twitter just said...

Pypa made the wrong choice. Too bad for him. Soon we'll have a new president.

Hoo boy.

Is it worth moving some of this to a "Russian Civil War 2023-????" thread?

This is another thing Ukrainian intelligence was talking about for months while the west largely brushed it off.

Mind you, I'm pretty confident that everyone with Ukrainian intel - right down to Budanov's frog - were doing their best to increase the chances of this happening.

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:23 am This is another thing Ukrainian intelligence was talking about for months while the west largely brushed it off.

Mind you, I'm pretty confident that everyone with Ukrainian intel - right down to Budanov's frog - were doing their best to increase the chances of this happening.

Budanov is only 37! Really young to be running an intelligence service. Not that he seems to be doing badly at it. Post Soviet generation though, which is a good thing.

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:10 am Is it worth moving some of this to a "Russian Civil War 2023-????" thread?

Your wish is my command

bob sterman wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:17 am It seems Lukashenko may have bolted for Turkey during the night...

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 3550333954

Could be the potato man himself, or he could just be evacuating his family or stolen wealth. According to those that follow such things, there's quite a lot of private jets leaving Moscow right now.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:47 am

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:10 am Is it worth moving some of this to a "Russian Civil War 2023-????" thread?

Your wish is my command

Thanks, Woodchopper. Thopper.

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:42 pmIs it still a civil war if it occurs in another country?

Well that's moot now...

Reports of heavy fighting around Voronezh...

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/16 ... _&ref_url=

Edit to add some doubt.

bjn wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:50 am Heavy fighting around Voronezh...

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/16 ... _&ref_url=

The Wagnerites seem to have a lot of heavy equipment: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 38436?s=20

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:51 am

bjn wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:50 am Heavy fighting around Voronezh...

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/16 ... _&ref_url=

The Wagnerites seem to have a lot of heavy equipment: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 38436?s=20

Firstly they had a bunch of that to start with. Secondly there are likely defections to their side. Thirdly seizing Rostov's given them control of much of the logistics chain for the invasion of Ukraine, which probably means that Prigozhin actually has the ammo he wanted all along now.

Of course this is also brilliant news for Ukraine. Not only will a lot of that ammunition and equipment be hijacked for the civil war in Russia, the MOD won't be able to send more materiel through Rostov - a transit point for most of the materiel going to Ukraine - because Wagner group will half inch it.

Tangentially, this is one of the reasons the restrictions on hitting Russian soil are so frustrating. A campaign against the bridges in Rostov would have crippled Russian logistics long ago if the political will had been there.

ETA: looks like that air defence equipment is getting some use already. As well as reports of three helicopters downed, there's also this, described as a Russian "bomber" getting downed over Voronezh. Judging by the footage it looks like an Su-25 ground attack aircraft rather than a heavy bomber.

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:47 am

Woodchopper wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 5:22 am Aric Toler thread: https://twitter.com/arictoler/status/16 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Michael Weiss thread: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/statu ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Noelreports thread: https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/ ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Kadyrov just declared for Putin.

https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3717

Putin's statement was so weak. A strongman leader must never urge loyalty. He must always promise death for disloyalty.

EACLucifer wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:58 amETA: looks like that air defence equipment is getting some use already. As well as reports of three helicopters downed, there's also this, described as a Russian "bomber" getting downed over Voronezh. Judging by the footage it looks like an Su-25 ground attack aircraft rather than a heavy bomber.

Missed the edit window, but also claims of anAn-26 getting downed instead. Without a good sense of scale silhoutte is quite similar. Or could be two incidents. Or one or both could be fakes, there'll be a lot of those circulating.

ETA: Yeah, so about those fakes...looks like it's old footage of an An-26 going down rather than related to current events. Not sure about the thing I identified as an Su-25, though, that's different footage.

Not much civil opposition to Wagner in Rostov, the locals are taking selfies with Wagner tanks.

https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/status/ ... _&ref_url=

bjn wrote: Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:15 am Not much civil opposition to Wagner in Rostov, the locals are taking selfies with Wagner tanks.

https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/status/ ... _&ref_url=

When your strategy to remain in power relies not on mass mobilisation of popular support, but mass demobilisation and apathy so you can do stuff without people really bothering much, it turns out other people can do stuff without people really bothering much.

They took air defence systems, so certainly weren't messing about

dyqik wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 10:19 pm

lpm wrote: Fri Jun 23, 2023 9:57 pm He clearly needs to get units of regular military to mutiny. Seems a reasonable chance he will? If so he can seize a couple of oblasts.

Him claiming to target Moscow must be a bluff, to distract attention from his real goal?

If I was him, I'd be trying for (just south of) Rostov on Don and/or Volgograd.

It's close to where his troops are, and you can use Ukraine as one flank, Kazakhstan and the Caspian sea as the other, threaten the Black Sea Fleet, and use the Don as a barrier. There's a good chance the the Russian land forces in the area are more ready to mutiny, to avoid fighting in Ukraine.

He must have been reading this thread.