Scrutable

Conspiracy theorists on both sides must be wetting themselves

Don't worry ... they are.

Hot tip: avoid social media today.

Thread on what the security might have been doing. tl;dr local police may have been responsible for securing the building where the shooter fired from, there may not have been good communication between them and the Secret Service personnel.
https://x.com/lttimmcmillan/status/1812 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

It looks like the shooter’s position was behind a tree which obscured it from one secret service sniper team.
https://x.com/oalexanderdk/status/18124 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

The one thing you can be sure of is that no good will come of this.

Most likely nothing will come of this, although the Republicans today are at least talking about the need to turn down the political rhetoric. Including those that have been calling for political violence in recent months. That might even last the week.

Teddy Roosevelt was shot in the chest at a campaign event 3 weeks before the election, made sure that his attempted assassin was removed safely from the crowd of his supporters, then gave a 90 minutes speech before going to hospital. He then lost 435-88 in the electoral college.

Reagan got a come of months of a few points polling boost before going back to normal.

lpm wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2024 11:06 pm ...
The election is over, I'd have thought.

Pretty much my first thought.

My second was that if this doesn't convince the GOP that gun control is needed, nothing will.

JQH wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 4:46 pm

lpm wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2024 11:06 pm ...
The election is over, I'd have thought.

Pretty much my first thought.

My second was that if this doesn't convince the GOP that gun control is needed, nothing will.

Biden was in trouble before. His route back was to stress that Trump is a danger to America who must be stopped.

That route is now closed.

It's all very well to compare to Reagan's temporary boost. But this is the key window in the race. Trump has free reign over thus critical convention period.

And it will be harder to attack his VP choice.

JQH wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 4:46 pm

lpm wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2024 11:06 pm ...
The election is over, I'd have thought.

Pretty much my first thought.

My second was that if this doesn't convince the GOP that gun control is needed, nothing will.

Nope. More guns needed for people to protect themselves from these evil lefties

Trump himself has always favoured gun control.

He did try but gave up when it went nowhere in Congress.

He is possibly the only one who could pass tough legislation.

Tessa K wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 5:34 pm

JQH wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 4:46 pm

lpm wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2024 11:06 pm ...
The election is over, I'd have thought.

Pretty much my first thought.

My second was that if this doesn't convince the GOP that gun control is needed, nothing will.

Nope. More guns needed for people to protect themselves from these evil lefties

I never fail to be amazed how the same people who loudly campaign that you should be able to carry a concealed weapon around a school and open carry down the high street do so at a rally with airport style metal detectors where no weapons are allowed.

lpm wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 5:14 pm

JQH wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 4:46 pm

lpm wrote: Sat Jul 13, 2024 11:06 pm ...
The election is over, I'd have thought.

Pretty much my first thought.

My second was that if this doesn't convince the GOP that gun control is needed, nothing will.

Biden was in trouble before. His route back was to stress that Trump is a danger to America who must be stopped.

That route is now closed.

It's all very well to compare to Reagan's temporary boost. But this is the key window in the race. Trump has free reign over thus critical convention period.

And it will be harder to attack his VP choice.

What's actually been happening today is a lot of highlighting of violent rhetoric from Republicans. That's not helping Trump.

But Trump has his weird animal cunning. His instinctive was "fight fight fight" but he promptly switched to "unite". He knows the end game is to play it as strong and magnanimous.

lpm wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 7:33 pm But Trump has his weird animal cunning. His instinctive was "fight fight fight" but he promptly switched to "unite". He knows the end game is to play it as strong and magnanimous.

His base will think he's gone soft after being shot at if he pivots away from fight fight fight.

Woodchopper wrote: Sun Jul 14, 2024 2:10 pm Thread on what the security might have been doing. tl;dr local police may have been responsible for securing the building where the shooter fired from, there may not have been good communication between them and the Secret Service personnel.
https://x.com/lttimmcmillan/status/1812 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

It looks like the shooter’s position was behind a tree which obscured it from one secret service sniper team.
https://x.com/oalexanderdk/status/18124 ... 1zY-PW4R9w

Apparently

A local law enforcement officer climbed to the roof and found Crooks, who pointed the rifle at the officer. The officer retreated down the ladder, and the gunman quickly fired toward Trump, the officials said. That’s when U.S. Secret Service gunmen shot him, the officials said.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-rally- ... 3c836bb434

If true this would explain two things. Firstly that the shooter was able to briefly evade the local police covering the building. Shouldn’t have happened but they’re not always the sharpest tools in the box. People on social media are are criticising the cop, but first making a radio report of a gunman sounds like something they’d be told to do.

Secondly, after pointing his gun at the cop the shooter had seconds to make the shot against Trump. Which would explain why he missed.

Has it actually been confirmed whether it was glass or a bullet that damaged Trump’s ear? I keep seeing people bring up the glass but there doesn’t seem to be any evidence to support it.

Even if it was glass a bullet caused it and was very close to him.

According to rhe BBC the shooter was a registered Republican so that should put paid to the leftie activist claims but probably won't.

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:21 am Has it actually been confirmed whether it was glass or a bullet that damaged Trump’s ear? I keep seeing people bring up the glass but there doesn’t seem to be any evidence to support it.

Well there's a photo showing a bullet streak right past his head - right before he winces and grabs the ear. Although this may not be the specific bullet that hit him...

https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/C377/product ... le1600.jpg

bob sterman wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:46 am

Stranger Mouse wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:21 am Has it actually been confirmed whether it was glass or a bullet that damaged Trump’s ear? I keep seeing people bring up the glass but there doesn’t seem to be any evidence to support it.

Well there's a photo showing a bullet streak right past his head - right before he winces and grabs the ear. Although this may not be the specific bullet that hit him...

https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/C377/product ... le1600.jpg

Yeah but that isn’t proof that it wasn’t glass from a different bullet that caused the injury. Don’t get me wrong - I’m assuming it was a bullet but when people start banging on about glass I would like to be able to point them at something which definitively clears up the confusion.

There are no pictures of any broken glass.

It was just an early twitter speculation that failed to die.

Tessa K wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:43 am According to rhe BBC the shooter was a registered Republican so that should put paid to the leftie activist claims but probably won't.

Donald J Trump was a registered Democrat for 8 years. It doesn't mean anything.

The murderer doesn't seem to have any political motive, though.

I think his motive was probably captured perfectly by the recollection of a former classmate: "He's just not a guy I really think about." Well, you're sure as hell gonna remember him now.

lpm wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 9:57 am

Tessa K wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 8:43 am According to rhe BBC the shooter was a registered Republican so that should put paid to the leftie activist claims but probably won't.

Donald J Trump was a registered Democrat for 8 years. It doesn't mean anything.

The murderer doesn't seem to have any political motive, though.

I think his motive was probably captured perfectly by the recollection of a former classmate: "He's just not a guy I really think about." Well, you're sure as hell gonna remember him now.

I’ve seen it suggested that as he donated $15 when he was 17 on the day Biden was sworn in (despite classmates describing him as “conservative” in the American sense) that he had probably lost a bet of some kind.

The donation was apparently another guy with a similar name. Elderly man in Pittsburgh iirc.

bolo wrote: Mon Jul 15, 2024 11:59 am The donation was apparently another guy with a similar name. Elderly man in Pittsburgh iirc.

That’s been disproved. Apparently the full filing shows the shooter’s address and he lived in a suburb of Greater Pittsburgh which clears up the zip code confusion.