Scrutable

Posted: **Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:55 am**

Read the links from Pedantica, above. It's all a bit more complicated than that.

Posted: **Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:05 am**

GeenDienst wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:55 am Read the links from Pedantica, above. It's all a bit more complicated than that.

More complicated than that article?

Posted: **Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:37 am**

greyspoke wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:05 am
GeenDienst wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:55 am Read the links from Pedantica, above. It's all a bit more complicated than that.
More complicated than that article?

No, secret squirrel's position. The article (and tweeters) is plenty complicated...

Posted: **Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:43 am**

Pedantica wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:32 pm
jimbob wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:05 pmI don't think he was anything other than a monster, but there are good reasons why Bush snd Obama didn't kill him.
I don't think Trump is a deep strategic thinker. So there are good reasons to doubt his judgement on this issue. It's plausible that the cost benefit of that decision has changed in the 3 years since Obama left office. Not least because of the defeat of IS. Whether that means it was a good idea or not I have no idea. It's also plausible that a decision taken for stupid reasons might end up having a benefit compared to the previous more diplomatic approach.

But most of the reactions to the news seem to come from a very Western perspective. Apparently written by people completely unaware (or just refusing to acknowledge) that Iran is already prosecuting a significant number of proxy wars across the region.

I don't think it's helpful to think about the situation between the US and Iran being at risk of going from "not at war" to "at war" as if those are a sort of binary situation. They are already involved in a large number of proxy conflicts. This action may provoke Iran further but may also degrade it's ability or political will to prosecute them. I think it's not helped by the fact that there seems to be almost no way of reacting to Iran that can't be seen as either provocation or appeasement. It's not as though the status quo is working out that well for people in Iraq, Syria, Yemen or indeed Iran itself.

Oh I agree with a lot of that.

My issue was that Iran and the US are vying for influence in Iraq. Having a drone strike at the airport might provide a temporary setback to Iran, but will probably increase political pressure from within Iraq to reduce US influence.

Posted: **Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:46 am**

GeenDienst wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:37 am No, secret squirrel's position. The article (and tweeters) is plenty complicated...

Those articles don't contradict my position at all. And yes it's a complicated situation. It's so complicated that experts can't predict what's going to happen any better than anyone else. But their opinions will be used in the short term interests of people who can profit from the situation, because they always are.

Posted: **Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:05 pm**

I think this quote from Rory Stewart is very relevant to an awful lot of international conflicts and politics in general. Be suspicious of those who say they are in favour of an outcome but have no idea whatsoever how it can be achieved.

"They pretend to be a plan, but they're actually just a description of an absence. Saying 'What we need is security, and what we need to do is eliminate corruption' is just another way of saying: 'It's really dangerous and corrupt.' None of that actually tells you how it's done."

Posted: **Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:08 pm**

If anyone is interested in some more background to the shitshow that is the Middle East generally and why the US and the UK and, to a lesser extent, France are viewed with, at best, suspicion of their actions and motives they could do worse than read James Barr's A Line In The Sand and Lords of the Desert.

Posted: **Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:09 pm**

jimbob wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:43 am
Pedantica wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:32 pm
jimbob wrote: Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:05 pmI don't think he was anything other than a monster, but there are good reasons why Bush snd Obama didn't kill him.
I don't think Trump is a deep strategic thinker. So there are good reasons to doubt his judgement on this issue. It's plausible that the cost benefit of that decision has changed in the 3 years since Obama left office. Not least because of the defeat of IS. Whether that means it was a good idea or not I have no idea. It's also plausible that a decision taken for stupid reasons might end up having a benefit compared to the previous more diplomatic approach.

But most of the reactions to the news seem to come from a very Western perspective. Apparently written by people completely unaware (or just refusing to acknowledge) that Iran is already prosecuting a significant number of proxy wars across the region.

I don't think it's helpful to think about the situation between the US and Iran being at risk of going from "not at war" to "at war" as if those are a sort of binary situation. They are already involved in a large number of proxy conflicts. This action may provoke Iran further but may also degrade it's ability or political will to prosecute them. I think it's not helped by the fact that there seems to be almost no way of reacting to Iran that can't be seen as either provocation or appeasement. It's not as though the status quo is working out that well for people in Iraq, Syria, Yemen or indeed Iran itself.
Oh I agree with a lot of that.

My issue was that Iran and the US are vying for influence in Iraq. Having a drone strike at the airport might provide a temporary setback to Iran, but will probably increase political pressure from within Iraq to reduce US influence.

And:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50998065

Posted: **Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:44 am**

Colin K has it figured out

There is nothing new about American terrorist attacks against Black and Brown people for the expansion of American imperialism.

https://twitter.com/Kaepernick7/status/ ... 9786096640

Posted: **Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:04 am**

Herainestold wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:44 am Colin K has it figured out

There is nothing new about American terrorist attacks against Black and Brown people for the expansion of American imperialism.

https://twitter.com/Kaepernick7/status/ ... 9786096640

Yet more evidence that Colin K shouldn't be playing football, but should run for office somewhere!

Posted: **Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:59 pm**

This letter... WTF?

It's not credible the US military could have issued "by mistake" a letter saying they would withdraw from Iraq.

Posted: **Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:12 am**

lpm wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:59 pm This letter... WTF?

It's not credible the US military could have issued "by mistake" a letter saying they would withdraw from Iraq.

It's entirely credible that the US military would produce a draft of what such a letter would look like, and someone in the political chain of command, which has been purged of all thoughtful people, would send it to them.

Posted: **Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:27 am**

dyqik wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:12 am
lpm wrote: Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:59 pm This letter... WTF?

It's not credible the US military could have issued "by mistake" a letter saying they would withdraw from Iraq.
It's entirely credible that the US military would produce a draft of what such a letter would look like, and someone in the political chain of command, which has been purged of all thoughtful people, would send it to them.

It seems possible.

I am thinking an Iraq withdrawal is in all likelihood a good thing. Even if it comes from Trump. My feeling is it wont happen as they need those guys there to keep the oil flowing.

Posted: **Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:36 pm**

Iran missiles have hit Al Asad Airbase in Iraq.

But I think it's one of those huge airbases, 10 miles by 10 miles or something crazy, containing the western HQs. So maybe haven't actually hit anything.

Posted: **Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:39 pm**

racistDonaldTrump wrote:The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way...and without hesitation!

Will he carry out this threat now? Or will he have forgotten he made it - one advantage of his dementia - and nobody in the military reminds him.

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:58 am**

lpm wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:39 pm
racistDonaldTrump wrote:The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way...and without hesitation!
Will he carry out this threat now? Or will he have forgotten he made it - one advantage of his dementia - and nobody in the military reminds him.

He will go after the cultural sites. They are undefended.

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 4:03 am**

Herainestold wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:58 am
lpm wrote: Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:39 pm
racistDonaldTrump wrote:The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way...and without hesitation!
Will he carry out this threat now? Or will he have forgotten he made it - one advantage of his dementia - and nobody in the military reminds him.
He will go after the cultural sites. They are undefended.

Many cultural sites (mosques, old temples, old habitations, etc) do have a military presence. Islam has sects (mainly Sunni & Shiite, but some others) and some extreme groups from one or the other side do occasionally target cultural sites, as otherwise soft targets; hence the positioning of some (not usually many) soldiers around them as a deterrent.

But this means that if the US does attack cultural sites, they can be more easily counted as an attack on the military.

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:27 am**

A Ukrainian Boeing 737 has just crashed after take-off from Tehran, all passengers killed.

It's not one of the ones with the dodgy software but it was only 4 months old.

I can't help thinking conspiratorial thoughts.

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:17 pm**

murmur wrote: Sun Jan 05, 2020 1:08 pm If anyone is interested in some more background to the shitshow that is the Middle East generally and why the US and the UK and, to a lesser extent, France are viewed with, at best, suspicion of their actions and motives they could do worse than read James Barr's A Line In The Sand and Lords of the Desert.

Good books. Also Robert Fisk's The Great War for Civilisation.

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:06 pm**

plodder wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:27 am I can't help thinking conspiratorial thoughts.

It's not looking good, but who would shoot down a plane full of Iranians?

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:09 pm**

TimW wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:06 pm
plodder wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:27 am I can't help thinking conspiratorial thoughts.
It's not looking good, but who would shoot down a plane full of Iranians?

Some dense c.nt in a militia who can't tell one plane from another. See also Ukraine.

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:25 pm**

plodder wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:27 am A Ukrainian Boeing 737 has just crashed after take-off from Tehran, all passengers killed.

It's not one of the ones with the dodgy software but it was only 4 months old.

I can't help thinking conspiratorial thoughts.

Investigating this will be fun. Typically Boeing would send investigators to assist after a crash of one of its planes, possibly from the US.

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:45 pm**

TimW wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:06 pm
plodder wrote: Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:27 am I can't help thinking conspiratorial thoughts.
It's not looking good, but who would shoot down a plane full of Iranians?

USA has previous on that one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Edit: Actually, that's a bit unfair, I'm not sure they wanted too.

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:55 pm**

Two theories of history, conspiracy and cock up.

Posted: **Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:27 pm**

Nick Waters (of the fantastic investigative site Bellingcat) has some cautionary notes for the "it was shot down" faction, namely that what appear to be bulletholes on the wreckage might just be rocks.

https://twitter.com/N_Waters89/status/1 ... 2689163267

Scrutable

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