The Invasion of Ukraine

[EACLucifer]

It's also worth pointing out that Putin still appears to be demanding Ukraine let him keep all the land his invading bastards grabbed and make political concessions.

Whereas the Ukrainians know they can do so much better. Indeed, since that announcement of annexation, they've rolled the Russian line back in Kherson oblast and kept pushing in Kharkiv, to the point that basically non of Kharkiv oblast is occupied now, and they've continued that advance right on into Luhansk oblast, and they've done this while holding the line everywhere else.

Even the missiles won't be enough to cow them. It's been known since the 40s that terror bombings increase rather than degrade resolve. And the first IRIS-T system is arriving round about now. That can protect an ~80km radius. That's in addition to Ukraine's S-300s, Buks, Stormers, Mistrals, Gepards and various MANPADS.

Nor will the sight of drunken, stumbling mobiks, or hundreds of thousands of Russians running for the border, or Russian bodies littering the roads and woods and fields round Lyman after they tried to flee through Ukrainian recon groups do anything to convince Ukrainians that Russia can stop them.

[dyqik]

Putin makes his red lines clear in talk with Musk.



https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake44z/ ... in-ukraine

All this proves is that Elon Musk is a fossil fuel and fascist supporting fantasist. Which we knew already.

Well I don’t know about fossil fuel supporting, he’s doing quite a lot to promote electric cars and lorries. I think he’s definitely a fascist supporter though.

He's actively supporting a fossil fuel funded regime.

[Grumble]

All this proves is that Elon Musk is a fossil fuel and fascist supporting fantasist. Which we knew already.

Well I don’t know about fossil fuel supporting, he’s doing quite a lot to promote electric cars and lorries. I think he’s definitely a fascist supporter though.

He's actively supporting a fossil fuel funded regime.

Yes, but it’s not the same thing

[lpm]

Putin makes his red lines clear in talk with Musk.

In a mailout sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, Ian Bremmer wrote that Tesla CEO Musk told him that Putin was “prepared to negotiate,” but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

According to Bremmer, Musk said Putin told him these goals would be accomplished “no matter what,” including the potential of a nuclear strike if Ukraine invaded Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Bremmer wrote that Musk told him that “everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome.”

https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake44z/ ... in-ukraine

What is this bollocks?

Are we supposed to believe Musk has had a chat with Putin??!!!!

Of course he f.cking hasn't. Musk is an insane fantasist if he says he has.

[dyqik]

Well I don’t know about fossil fuel supporting, he’s doing quite a lot to promote electric cars and lorries. I think he’s definitely a fascist supporter though.

He's actively supporting a fossil fuel funded regime.

Yes, but it’s not the same thing

It is effectively the same thing.

[dyqik]

Putin makes his red lines clear in talk with Musk.

In a mailout sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, Ian Bremmer wrote that Tesla CEO Musk told him that Putin was “prepared to negotiate,” but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

According to Bremmer, Musk said Putin told him these goals would be accomplished “no matter what,” including the potential of a nuclear strike if Ukraine invaded Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Bremmer wrote that Musk told him that “everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome.”

https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake44z/ ... in-ukraine

What is this bollocks?

Are we supposed to believe Musk has had a chat with Putin??!!!!

Of course he f.cking hasn't. Musk is an insane fantasist if he says he has.

Given the Russian attempts to paint the west as unreasonable, finding some western edgelords with a huge number of cultish followers to indoctrinate is a pretty good strategy.

[EACLucifer]

Putin makes his red lines clear in talk with Musk.



https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake44z/ ... in-ukraine

What is this bollocks?

Are we supposed to believe Musk has had a chat with Putin??!!!!

Of course he f.cking hasn't. Musk is an insane fantasist if he says he has.

Given the Russian attempts to paint the west as unreasonable, finding some western edgelords with a huge number of cultish followers to indoctrinate is a pretty good strategy.

Putin's used to the idea that control goverments via oligarchs.

Though Musk is a fantasist, regardless of whether or not he spoke to Putin or not.

And he's pushing Putinist lines, regardless of where he picked them up from. Mind you, it was only a couple of weeks into the invasion when he started posted memes objecting to people supporting consensus causes (ie black lives matter, support for Ukraine), because he is after all an attention seeking tw.t who wants to look edgy.

The Starlink issue is more serious, though. If he's holding back or sabotaging it, then the US needs to find some way to claw back all the money they spent on acquiring the system for Ukraine, and enabling, if at all possible, the same to be the case for private purchasers there too.

[Pishwish]

Musk denies it.

I have spoken to Putin only once and that was about 18 months ago. The subject matter was space.

[Herainestold]

Putin makes his red lines clear in talk with Musk.

In a mailout sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, Ian Bremmer wrote that Tesla CEO Musk told him that Putin was “prepared to negotiate,” but only if Crimea remained Russian, if Ukraine accepted a form of permanent neutrality, and Ukraine recognised Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

According to Bremmer, Musk said Putin told him these goals would be accomplished “no matter what,” including the potential of a nuclear strike if Ukraine invaded Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Bremmer wrote that Musk told him that “everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome.”

https://www.vice.com/en/article/ake44z/ ... in-ukraine

Which proves nothing other than Musk is a pathetic c.nt. We knew that anyway.

We. Do. Not. Need. To. Care. About. Vladimir. Vladimirovich's. Feelings.

He. Is. Not. Long. For. This. World.

He. Cannot. Win. Any. Fight. With. The. West.

It doesn't matter that he will not win any fight with the west. All he has to do is push the big red button.

Even if Ukraine pushes Russia back to the 2014 borders, Russia still has the capability to do to Ukrainian cities what it did to Grozny and Aleppo.

[Martin Y]

Putin makes his red lines clear ...

Those aren't red lines. They're a just maximally overreaching opening bid in the form of "I get everything I've claimed so far, plus you promise to stop fighting me and then we negotiate on the rest of my demands. How's that sound?".

[TimW]

But has he said he's not bluffing? If he hasn't, then he might be bluffing.

[dyqik]

Musk denies it.

I have spoken to Putin only once and that was about 18 months ago. The subject matter was space.

Of course "spoken" might be a little too specific if it was via Telegram or something.

[Millennie Al]

I've seen more rumblings about Russian troops into Belarus.

So have I and I have wondered where they're coming from, given that Russia seems to be desperate to raise more troops.

And, of course, with winter coming and the supplies problem, Russia risks their soldiers being defeated by offers of hot tea, a warm room, and phone calls home.

[Millennie Al]

UK has its own warheads. I hope we aren't considering lending them to Ukraine.

My understanding of UK policy is that nuclear warheads are not lent. All deliveries are final, and returns will not be accepted - even if reassembled.

[TopBadger]

UK has its own warheads. I hope we aren't considering lending them to Ukraine.

My understanding of UK policy is that nuclear warheads are not lent. All deliveries are final, and returns will not be accepted - even if reassembled.

That must be why you can't buy them online - as then they'd be covered by distance selling regulations and returns would be permitted...

[TopBadger]

All he has to do is push the big red button.

Launching nukes (or for that matter any missile system) isn't as simple as a single button press. There is a whole fire control chain requiring everyone to be on board with the idea. So, even if Vlad decided to "f.ck the living" (including his own family) and gave this order then it's not certain that his underlings, from cabinet members and bodyguards all the way down to the grunts who actually open silo hatches and launch the things would see it the same way.

Even if Ukraine pushes Russia back to the 2014 borders, Russia still has the capability to do to Ukrainian cities what it did to Grozny and Aleppo.

Western weapons and defenses have long ranges. Ukraine could, if given the means, keep Russia at "arms length". Once the Russians have been pushed out of Ukraine I'd expect Ukraine to join NATO pretty sharpish, having proved themselves they'll be admitted - and then further attacks on Ukraine become terminal for Russia.

[FlammableFlower]

I've seen more rumblings about Russian troops into Belarus.

So have I and I have wondered where they're coming from, given that Russia seems to be desperate to raise more troops.

And, of course, with winter coming and the supplies problem, Russia risks their soldiers being defeated by offers of hot tea, a warm room, and phone calls home.

Having seen what got looted by Russian troops, part of me bitterly wondered if Ukraine could defeat Russia more rapidly by parachuting washing machines and toilets onto Russian lines, as it seems deep down, that's all they're interested in.

[EACLucifer]

It's worth noting that if Musk did speak to Putin or any of his representatives ("directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse", so that would include telegram, email etc) then he may have broken federal law.

[dyqik]

It's worth noting that if Musk did speak to Putin or any of his representatives ("directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse", so that would include telegram, email etc) then he may have broken federal law.

Is that from the Logan Act or sanctions?

[EACLucifer]

It's worth noting that if Musk did speak to Putin or any of his representatives ("directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse", so that would include telegram, email etc) then he may have broken federal law.

Is that from the Logan Act or sanctions?

Logan act, which is rarely used, but it could still affect government contracts if he's behaving that way, especially in the space sector.

[dyqik]

It's worth noting that if Musk did speak to Putin or any of his representatives ("directly or indirectly commences or carries on any correspondence or intercourse", so that would include telegram, email etc) then he may have broken federal law.

Is that from the Logan Act or sanctions?

Logan act, which is rarely used, but it could still affect government contracts if he's behaving that way, especially in the space sector.

That's way less likely to get enforced than sanctions.

[plodder]

Oh Jesus are they actually digging trenches to put conscripts in?

https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/sta ... 6348279809

[EACLucifer]

Oh Jesus are they actually digging trenches to put conscripts in?

https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/sta ... 6348279809

Yes, they are. And after a day or two of training, too. Fire three magazines on the range and a quick course on applying bandages, and they think that makes you fit to be a soldier. Not that the dressings will be that useful - they've been cable-tying them to their plate carriers. Not sure how you are meant to apply a tourniquet while wounded when it's cable tied in place.

Which is, I suppose, better than putting them out in the open, but if they put them in that straight trench, not much. Trenches should be as wiggly as possible. Then again, the straight trench might be meant to stop vehicles, but it would need to be ~3m to stop a main battle tank crossing it.

The concrete obstacles are designed to stop tanks, and they do work.

We think of trench war as an anachronism, something that happened in WWI (though it goes back a lot further than that), but it is still militarily relevant. Being in a hole in the ground is still the best protection against bullets and shell fragments. Trench warfare was the norm during the Donbas war, prior to the escalation in February. That said, they'd need to put a line in along the entire front line for it to hold long term, and they haven't the manpower for that.

Ukraine's already in heavy mortar range of Svatove. I assume the Russians are trying to hold the heights west of the town, because if they don't, they're f.cked. So they are throwing in whoever they could scrape up who lacked the gumption or means to escape the draft after just a day or two of training. I just hope the poor f.ckers have the wits to surrender. Chances are the Ukrainians will treat them better than their own side does.

[dyqik]

Oh Jesus are they actually digging trenches to put conscripts in?

https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/sta ... 6348279809

Yes, they are. And after a day or two of training, too. Fire three magazines on the range and a quick course on applying bandages, and they think that makes you fit to be a soldier. Not that the dressings will be that useful - they've been cable-tying them to their plate carriers. Not sure how you are meant to apply a tourniquet while wounded when it's cable tied in place.

Which is, I suppose, better than putting them out in the open, but if they put them in that straight trench, not much. Trenches should be as wiggly as possible. Then again, the straight trench might be meant to stop vehicles, but it would need to be ~3m to stop a main battle tank crossing it.

The concrete obstacles are designed to stop tanks, and they do work.

We think of trench war as an anachronism, something that happened in WWI (though it goes back a lot further than that), but it is still militarily relevant. Being in a hole in the ground is still the best protection against bullets and shell fragments. Trench warfare was the norm during the Donbas war, prior to the escalation in February. That said, they'd need to put a line in along the entire front line for it to hold long term, and they haven't the manpower for that.

Most importantly for trench warfare, you've got to man the entire trench system, and distribute food, water, medicine and fuel to all those personnel, and keep them motivated. Start letting a few places get weak, and the enemy can break through and either roll up along your trenches, or just attack the supply lines.

[EACLucifer]

Oh Jesus are they actually digging trenches to put conscripts in?

https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/sta ... 6348279809

Yes, they are. And after a day or two of training, too. Fire three magazines on the range and a quick course on applying bandages, and they think that makes you fit to be a soldier. Not that the dressings will be that useful - they've been cable-tying them to their plate carriers. Not sure how you are meant to apply a tourniquet while wounded when it's cable tied in place.

Which is, I suppose, better than putting them out in the open, but if they put them in that straight trench, not much. Trenches should be as wiggly as possible. Then again, the straight trench might be meant to stop vehicles, but it would need to be ~3m to stop a main battle tank crossing it.

The concrete obstacles are designed to stop tanks, and they do work.

We think of trench war as an anachronism, something that happened in WWI (though it goes back a lot further than that), but it is still militarily relevant. Being in a hole in the ground is still the best protection against bullets and shell fragments. Trench warfare was the norm during the Donbas war, prior to the escalation in February. That said, they'd need to put a line in along the entire front line for it to hold long term, and they haven't the manpower for that.

Most importantly for trench warfare, you've got to man the entire trench system, and distribute food, water, medicine and fuel to all those personnel, and keep them motivated. Start letting a few places get weak, and the enemy can break through and either roll up along your trenches, or just attack the supply lines.

Yep. That's what lead to the breakdown of the stalemate in WWI. Both sides were just runing out of young men.

And it's a lot easier to breakout these days, when everyone's on vehicles and even tanks and artillery can go at a decent clip.