Scrutable

shpalman wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:24 pm Whether that's relevant depends on if their model takes into account the reduced survival chances of severe cases who don't manage to get an ICU bed.

EACLucifer wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:49 pm

Cardinal Fang wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:39 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:41 pm The link's already in my post. I'll post it again, though.

https://www.deaconess.com/How-to-make-a-Face-Mask

Don't have space or facilities to make own masks (temp moved out of home into NHS digs, as person I live with has health issues that make them very high risk. Not going to risk coming and going and bringing virus back with me. Just brought essentials to new digs like clothing, computer etc. No sewing kit or machine).

But if anyone's selling any, wouldn't mind a couple

CF

Sell? There's no way I'll be selling any.

But once I've got some made, I'll drop you a PM. Unfortunately, today is a totally non-functional, can't sit up kind of day, so if anyone else here is making them, then they may be able to get you sorted faster than I can.

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:40 pm

shpalman wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:24 pm Whether that's relevant depends on if their model takes into account the reduced survival chances of severe cases who don't manage to get an ICU bed.

Certainly, just seems a bit back of the envelope if the data is out of date.

lpm wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:34 am Neighbour next door but one has it. She's a GP. Had been supposed to be separated from any potential Covid patients so as to continue routine NHS services.

Bit of a worry that didn't work. She'll have seen a bunch of vulnerable people during her asymptomatic couple of days.

lpm wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:02 am A very very very basic estimate of official deaths in this first wave would be:

7,000 going up the curve
7,000 going across the top (1,000 a day for 7 days)
7,000 going down the curve

Can probably say official is 70% of actual, giving about 30,000.

Some of the extreme forecasts look obviously wrong. Are the people who 11 days ago predicted a total of 5,700 still sticking with their forecast? Equally 60,000 by the end of April seems very high - we're a long way short of a peak of 3,000 per day.

If a bad wave gives 30,000 and we get three bad lock down waves, plus general non-wave fatalities during the lesser lock downs in rest of the year, then very very broadly on track for about 120,000 total by March 2021.

hris Giles
@ChrisGiles_
We knew the daily coronavirus death counts were too low because of reporting delays

We had little idea they were 80% too low....

All in guts of todays
@ONS
statistics

Squeak wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:35 pm Cautiously, Australia just might be managing this ok, so far, touch wood, and all similar invocations of hope.

A couple of weeks ago, we were doubling cases every three-and-a-bit days. Now it's ten days. Our testing rates are on par with Germany and Italy but only 2.1% of tests are coming back positive so we're not just testing the obvious cases but we're probably picking up most of what's out there. That we've stopped the exponential growth in new cases and they or mortality rate seems to be around 0.2% add more support to the idea that there aren't large pockets of mild but infectious disease that our testing systems are missing.

Some of this is dumb luck of geography that gave us some time to slowly organise a social/political response and sprawling cities that make social distancing easier. But maybe, just maybe, if we keep doing what we're doing, we can keep this bubbling at manageable levels until we get a vaccine.

Have I added enough caveats yet? Obvs new data tomorrow night undermine all of this or Easter beach holidays might screw it up, even if the current trends is right.

lpm wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:02 am A very very very basic estimate of official deaths in this first wave would be:

7,000 going up the curve
7,000 going across the top (1,000 a day for 7 days)
7,000 going down the curve

Can probably say official is 70% of actual, giving about 30,000.

Some of the extreme forecasts look obviously wrong. Are the people who 11 days ago predicted a total of 5,700 still sticking with their forecast? Equally 60,000 by the end of April seems very high - we're a long way short of a peak of 3,000 per day.

If a bad wave gives 30,000 and we get three bad lock down waves, plus general non-wave fatalities during the lesser lock downs in rest of the year, then very very broadly on track for about 120,000 total by March 2021.

Chris Preston wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:27 am

Squeak wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:35 pm Cautiously, Australia just might be managing this ok, so far, touch wood, and all similar invocations of hope.

A couple of weeks ago, we were doubling cases every three-and-a-bit days. Now it's ten days. Our testing rates are on par with Germany and Italy but only 2.1% of tests are coming back positive so we're not just testing the obvious cases but we're probably picking up most of what's out there. That we've stopped the exponential growth in new cases and they or mortality rate seems to be around 0.2% add more support to the idea that there aren't large pockets of mild but infectious disease that our testing systems are missing.

Some of this is dumb luck of geography that gave us some time to slowly organise a social/political response and sprawling cities that make social distancing easier. But maybe, just maybe, if we keep doing what we're doing, we can keep this bubbling at manageable levels until we get a vaccine.

Have I added enough caveats yet? Obvs new data tomorrow night undermine all of this or Easter beach holidays might screw it up, even if the current trends is right.

According to the modelling, 80% of Australians had to follow the rules to make the strategy work. Surprisingly for Australians it looks like 90% are following the rules. At Mrs P's schools there has been less than 10% of the normal students attending for the last 3 weeks. I have been working at home for the past 3 weeks and have encourage as much of my team to do the same. I do have one of my trials sitting in the backyard and have promised someone I will get another one there. I am also videoing my practical classes in the backyard and the front room. The worst thing so far is that any Zoom conference with anyone from campus on it crashes.

The looming Easter holidays are going to be a test. I have been stockpiling at the hardware store to keep me busy instead of going with Mrs P., Junior P major and Mrs Junior P major to meet and do tropical stuff with Mrs. P's niece from St Louis.

The mortality rate will rise to about 2% if the data from South Korea is any guide.

Giroliddy wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 12:53 pm The UK Heath and Safety Executive (HSE) are the enforcing authority for health and safety in hospitals and operate a reporting line for possible breaches of health and safety in the workplace.
I've drafted the following, but I'm not sure if it is inappropriate to send at this time?


Given the deaths of healthcare workers in the COVID-19 outbreak, and the reported shortages in PPE, I am writing to request HSE to investigate whether absent or inadequate PPE was a contributory factor in their exposure to the virus and subsequent death. Specifically whether the employers, and their controlling entity, the Department of Health, have complied with the requirements of Regulation 4 of the Personal Protective Equipment at Work Regulations 1992, to ensure that “suitable personal protective equipment is provided to his employees”.

Additionally it has been widely reported e.g. (hxxps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/a ... ng-to-cost) that the Department of Health rejected advice to stockpile PPE to deal with a pandemic on the grounds of “the very large incremental cost of adding in eye protection”. I would further request for HSE to investigate whether the Department of Health has sufficiently discharged its duties under Section 3 of the Health and Safety at Work Act 1974 to ensure that risks to persons are reduced so far is reasonably practicable. In particular, what assessment was made of the potential risk reduction benefits to employees (from reduced infection rates) of acquiring such PPE, as if the decision was made purely on cost (sacrifice) grounds, then this would appear to be insufficient grounds to make such a decision.

Similarly it has also been reported (e.g. hxxps://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/exe ... overnment/) that the results of a previous pandemic exercise (Exercise Cygnus) identified shortfalls in the planning and provision of PPE. According to press reports, the full results of this exercise have never been made public. I would request HSE to fully investigate what learnings and recommendations were made from Exercise Cygnus, and whether, and on what grounds, changes were made or rejected to the ability of the NHS to manage a pandemic. Should there be insufficient grounds for failing to implement recommendations, it should be questioned whether the Department of Health have implemented suitable and sufficient measures to manage the risks of such a pandemic event to NHS staff and service users.

Subsequent to such investigations above, I would request for the HSE to consider whether the Department of Health, by failing to comply with relevant health and safety legislation (with particular regard to the PPE at Work Regulations and the Health and Safety at Work Act) has committed an offence under the Corporate Manslaughter and Corporate Homicide Act 2007 amounting to a gross breach of its duty of care towards its employees resulting in the death or one or more of these employees.

raven wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:15 pm Page 5 of this leaflet here : https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... eaflet.pdf

It just seems to me that everyone in a household should be quarantined until they're all over it or we can be reasonably sure they're not going to get it. I mean, yeah, people who've recovered may be immune and thus unable to spread it. But that person C hasn't had it. Unless we're assuming they're one of those asymptomatic cases.

shpalman wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 7:56 pm It's here: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

799 feels way to low for the total number of ICU beds in a country anyway though so I'm confused about that number.