Scrutable

Mud season is coming, then winter. It’s going to be horrific.

plodder wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:13 pm Mud season is coming, then winter. It’s going to be horrific.

Insomuch as they are targetting anything, Russian strikes right now are targetting power plants far from the frontline. Their propagandists are quite open that the goal is to freeze Ukrainian civilians.

As for the front lines, I expect to see plenty of leaflets pointing out that the POW camps aren't so cold. Russia isn't issuing winter clothing.

Canada, meanwhile, has donated enough winter clothing to Ukraine to equip a couple of full-scale corps, and they aren't the only donor.

plodder wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:14 pm Oh Jesus are they actually digging trenches to put conscripts in?

https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/sta ... 6348279809

Morbid thought: Spoiler:

Martin_B wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 12:04 am

plodder wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:14 pm Oh Jesus are they actually digging trenches to put conscripts in?

https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/sta ... 6348279809

Morbid thought: Spoiler:

Trenches have a habit of turning into graves

Even blacker humour:
Spoiler:

plodder wrote: Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:14 pm Oh Jesus are they actually digging trenches to put conscripts in?

https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/sta ... 6348279809

Apparently the trench in question was probably made for the cameras.

But yes. In other cases conscripts are being given a few days training and being sent to the trenches.

More than 90,000 troops make up Russia’s “irrecoverable” military losses in Ukraine, as reported by the Russian media project iStories (or Vazhnye Istorii). One of the two sources of this information works in the FSB; the other is a former state security officer.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/12/ru ... ed-or-awol

Losses include those killed, seriously wounded, disabled, taken prisoner or missing. Should still be taken with a pinch of salt but looks plausible given Russia's evident shortages in manpower.

For comparison, over a decade US losses in Vietnam were:

Battle Deaths: 47,424
Other Deaths (In Theatre): 10,785
Wounded: 153,303

Post and responses on nuclear use: https://twitter.com/nukestrat/status/15 ... tKDL2_QDkA

tl;dr tens or even hundreds of low yield (or tactical) nuclear weapons would need to be used to have a significant battlefield effect upon Ukraine.

They do of course have very important symbolic effects and a single warhead could cause massive civilian casualties.

IMHO if Russia were to use a nuclear weapon it would first be used symbolically - for example an aggressive 'test' over or near Ukraine or one of its allies which wasn't designed to kill many but would be intended to intimidate.

In Belarus, a decision has been taken to begin a covert mobilisation, Nasha Niva reports citing several Belarusian army officers (a reliable source). It will reportedly take place under the guise of combat readiness checks and reservist call-ups.

https://twitter.com/tadeuszgiczan/statu ... MBCxLNcNqA

“Surovikin is like Marshal Zhukov,” Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow defense think tank, told the Financial Times, referring to the Red Army's undefeated commander during World War II. “He’s a tough guy who knows how to run a war. He’s a real beast, not some dumb vodka-drinking guy or a pseudointellectual. He’s a real fighter who isn’t scared to tell the higher-ups the truth.”

“He is very cruel but also a competent commander,” Gleb Irisov, a former aerospace force lieutenant who worked with Surovikin until 2020, told the Guardian. He added that he was one of the few people in the army who “knew how to oversee and streamline different army branches."

I think we are going to see a major new Russian offensive that will take Ukraine by surprise.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... r-AA12RotT

Herainestold wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:35 pm

“Surovikin is like Marshal Zhukov,” Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow defense think tank, told the Financial Times, referring to the Red Army's undefeated commander during World War II. “He’s a tough guy who knows how to run a war. He’s a real beast, not some dumb vodka-drinking guy or a pseudointellectual. He’s a real fighter who isn’t scared to tell the higher-ups the truth.”

“He is very cruel but also a competent commander,” Gleb Irisov, a former aerospace force lieutenant who worked with Surovikin until 2020, told the Guardian. He added that he was one of the few people in the army who “knew how to oversee and streamline different army branches."

I think we are going to see a major new Russian offensive that will take Ukraine by surprise.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... r-AA12RotT

If you've spotted it, dipshit, then American, British and Ukrainian intelligence has.

https://www.ft.com/content/11b882ba-c75 ... d276a88faa

Russia’s nuclear threat
Would Putin really use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?

Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab

Since they first started arriving in Ukraine last spring, the Starlink satellite internet terminals made by Elon Musk’s SpaceX have been a vital source of communication for Ukraine’s military, allowing it to fight and stay connected even as cellular phone and internet networks have been destroyed in its war with Russia.

So far roughly 20,000 Starlink satellite units have been donated to Ukraine, with Musk tweeting on Friday the “operation has cost SpaceX $80 million and will exceed $100 million by the end of the year.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics ... index.html

Much more at the link

I would have more sympathy for them if they pushed Musk out.


As for the constant scaremongering about Russia winning, it is tedious. A leader who is cruel is not actual competent but a criminal.

Herainestold wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:58 pm https://www.ft.com/content/11b882ba-c75 ... d276a88faa

Russia’s nuclear threat
Would Putin really use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?

Not your usual style! That is actually a clear eyed summary of many issues without hyperbole!

My prediction (not saying this is a just outcome) is that this will end with Russia being permitted to retain Crimea. That may be Putin's true "red line" but given that West has tolerated the annexation of Crimea since 2014 - the rationale for making it the sticking point now, leading to direct NATO vs Russia confrontation, may not be that persuasive.

However, explicit Russian threats to use tactical nuclear weapons to specifically defend Crimea could counter-productively (for Russia) make it the sticking point - i.e. the West may tolerate them keeping Crimea but not if it involves rewarding explicit nuclear threats (because of the precedent that creates).

The only way I see Russia keeping Crimea is by Ukraine agreeing to some sort of "Hong Kong style 200 year lease" perhaps as part of Russia making large reparations.

i.e. Ukraine gets the money it needs to rebuild and the Russians can at least argue that they're getting something for that money.

But - given Russia thinks this is it's territory now - I doubt they'd agree to this.

TopBadger wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:46 am The only way I see Russia keeping Crimea is by Ukraine agreeing to some sort of "Hong Kong style 200 year lease" perhaps as part of Russia making large reparations.

i.e. Ukraine gets the money it needs to rebuild and the Russians can at least argue that they're getting something for that money.

But - given Russia thinks this is it's territory now - I doubt they'd agree to this.

I never knew what the deal was before 2014 which gave Russia control of Sevastopol, but I wonder if there might be any mileage at all in a face-saving version of that deal expanding to the whole of Crimea.

Martin Y wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:04 am

TopBadger wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:46 am The only way I see Russia keeping Crimea is by Ukraine agreeing to some sort of "Hong Kong style 200 year lease" perhaps as part of Russia making large reparations.

i.e. Ukraine gets the money it needs to rebuild and the Russians can at least argue that they're getting something for that money.

But - given Russia thinks this is it's territory now - I doubt they'd agree to this.

I never knew what the deal was before 2014 which gave Russia control of Sevastopol, but I wonder if there might be any mileage at all in a face-saving version of that deal expanding to the whole of Crimea.

We don't need to save Putin's face, though

bob sterman wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 6:19 am

Herainestold wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:58 pm https://www.ft.com/content/11b882ba-c75 ... d276a88faa

Russia’s nuclear threat
Would Putin really use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine?

Not your usual style! That is actually a clear eyed summary of many issues without hyperbole!

It's got a fatal mistake in the first couple of paragraphs - framing the Kerch Straits Bridge attack and the missile barrage on Ukrainian cities are related events, putting them together as examples of escalation.

It's clear that the missile attacks were planned before the attack on the bridge, and some of the strategic bomber movements that enabled it were spotted before the bridge attack.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:46 am

Musk’s SpaceX says it can no longer pay for critical satellite services in Ukraine, asks Pentagon to pick up the tab

Since they first started arriving in Ukraine last spring, the Starlink satellite internet terminals made by Elon Musk’s SpaceX have been a vital source of communication for Ukraine’s military, allowing it to fight and stay connected even as cellular phone and internet networks have been destroyed in its war with Russia.

So far roughly 20,000 Starlink satellite units have been donated to Ukraine, with Musk tweeting on Friday the “operation has cost SpaceX $80 million and will exceed $100 million by the end of the year.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/politics ... index.html

Much more at the link

He's directly tied this to people not fawning over his pro-Kremlin bollocks of a so-called "peace plan". Petulant little bullshitter having a tantrum, the US should speed up their investigations into this conmans dodgy finances, and while they are at it, relieve him of as many government contracts as possible.

ETA: He's always been a liar and a conman who attacks people far braver than himself if he can't steal praise they've earned for himself.

Yuriy Kerpatenko, conductor of the Kherson Philharmonic, was murdered by occupiers in his own home for refusing to collaborate.

But sure, let's leave some of Ukraine in Putin's hands to he can save face We can make it clear we reward nuclear threats and thus encourage nuclear proliferation and blackmail while we're at it.

The Stop the War crowd have gone quiet of late. Haven't seen anything from them on FaceBook for weeks. Do you think the kopeck's finally dropped?

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:56 am ETA: He's always been a liar and a conman who attacks people far braver than himself if he can't steal praise they've earned for himself.

I agree with you.

He does have influence, being the worlds richest man. Its one of the many problems with capitalism.

Herainestold wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:33 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:56 am ETA: He's always been a liar and a conman who attacks people far braver than himself if he can't steal praise they've earned for himself.

I agree with you.

He does have influence, being the worlds richest man. Its one of the many problems with capitalism.

It's one of the problems when the regulators designed to stop obvious stock manipulations are utter toothless.

And his flailing attempts to get out the twitter purchase suggest much of his wealth, much like the value of Tesla stocks, is a house of cards.

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:57 pm

Herainestold wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:33 pm

EACLucifer wrote: Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:56 am ETA: He's always been a liar and a conman who attacks people far braver than himself if he can't steal praise they've earned for himself.

I agree with you.

He does have influence, being the worlds richest man. Its one of the many problems with capitalism.

It's one of the problems when the regulators designed to stop obvious stock manipulations are utter toothless.

And his flailing attempts to get out the twitter purchase suggest much of his wealth, much like the value of Tesla stocks, is a house of cards.

I'm sure he's done a bit of stock manipulation, but I've also noticed that he says stupid stuff when there's bad news about him/his companies in the press. Dude can afford a lot of dead cats.

I know some of the chat about Elon is relevant to this thread, but let’s not get sidetracked.