The Invasion of Ukraine

[EACLucifer]

I agree with you.

He does have influence, being the worlds richest man. Its one of the many problems with capitalism.

It's one of the problems when the regulators designed to stop obvious stock manipulations are utter toothless.

And his flailing attempts to get out the twitter purchase suggest much of his wealth, much like the value of Tesla stocks, is a house of cards.

I'm sure he's done a bit of stock manipulation, but I've also noticed that he says stupid stuff when there's bad news about him/his companies in the press. Dude can afford a lot of dead cats.

The stock manipulation comment refers to past behaviour.

Completely agree about using stupid b.llsh.t to distract from bad news.

He also likes to shoot the messenger, often just a few minutes before bad news comes out about him though sometimes its after, and that's how he handled the accusation of talking to Putin before offering a plan that included a Kremlin propaganda catchphrase in its wording ("Kruschev's Mistake").

[EACLucifer]

Girkin's in a pickle. Along with a number of other Milbloggers who have been critical of Putin and key regime members, all apparently now under investigation. Some of them are Wagner linked, too, just to add interest to the various power struggles.

[Grumble]

Girkin's in a pickle. Along with a number of other Milbloggers who have been critical of Putin and key regime members, all apparently now under investigation. Some of them are Wagner linked, too, just to add interest to the various power struggles.

But they’re such a lovely bunch of blokes

[jdc]

Couple of Russians seeking asylum, apparently: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 2889475072

A member of Russia’s Security Service (FSB) and a member of the Russian mercenary organization Wagner have requested asylum in France. Testimonies provided will shed light on Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine.

[jimbob]

Girkin looks to have been mobilised.

[lpm]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/statu ... 3537869824

This is pretty dystopian. Mass weddings for cannon fodder.

[FlammableFlower]

Considering there are reports of people going from mobilised to dead on the front line in 10 days... people get desperate.

[Martin Y]

You don't necessarily even get as far as the front line before getting killed:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63273599

Two gunmen from "a former Soviet republic" opened fire at a training camp in Belgorod, killing 11 and wounding 15 before being killed themselves. The victims are described as volunteers rather than conscripts, for whatever difference that makes.

This sounds like a suicide attack, which is something new, and not by a lone gunman but by two, which suggests planning rather than someone who just snapped. Now it might yet be a one-off, but if would-be separatists from other republics are emboldened to mount attacks on Russians then things may really be on the verge of falling apart in the federation.

[Woodchopper]

You don't necessarily even get as far as the front line before getting killed:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63273599

Two gunmen from "a former Soviet republic" opened fire at a training camp in Belgorod, killing 11 and wounding 15 before being killed themselves. The victims are described as volunteers rather than conscripts, for whatever difference that makes.

This sounds like a suicide attack, which is something new, and not by a lone gunman but by two, which suggests planning rather than someone who just snapped. Now it might yet be a one-off, but if would-be separatists from other republics are emboldened to mount attacks on Russians then things may really be on the verge of falling apart in the federation.

I’ve seen several reports that conscripts are being given little or no ammunition while in training. Could be an attempt to avoid incidents like this.

If the two assumed that they are going to be killed by the Ukrainians anyway, why not die killing Russians instead.

[Woodchopper]

During the middle of the night Saturday, China told citizens to leave. Kazakhstan is closing embassy.

Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Serbia already have told citizens to go.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/statu ... tyzdVAfjWQ

Looks like Kazakhstan is evacuating the embassy. Tajikistan advised it’s citizens to leave.

[bob sterman]

During the middle of the night Saturday, China told citizens to leave. Kazakhstan is closing embassy.

Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Serbia already have told citizens to go.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/statu ... tyzdVAfjWQ

Looks like Kazakhstan is evacuating the embassy. Tajikistan advised it’s citizens to leave.

Can't find any reputable news sources saying that Kazakhstan is closing its embassy. Just sending some staff home.

And the Kazakhstan move is not new - it's from 5/6 days ago around the time of the missile strikes. So it doesn't necessarily signal knowledge of some new Russian plans. China was also warning its citizens in Ukraine 5/6 days ago to prepare to protect themselves or leave.

Some odd Twitter accounts have been hyping things like this as new development in the last 24 hours which they are not.

[Woodchopper]

During the middle of the night Saturday, China told citizens to leave. Kazakhstan is closing embassy.

Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Serbia already have told citizens to go.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/statu ... tyzdVAfjWQ

Looks like Kazakhstan is evacuating the embassy. Tajikistan advised it’s citizens to leave.

Can't find any reputable news sources saying that Kazakhstan is closing its embassy. Just sending some staff home.

And the Kazakhstan move is not new - it's from 5/6 days ago around the time of the missile strikes. So it doesn't necessarily signal knowledge of some new Russian plans. China was also warning its citizens in Ukraine 5/6 days ago to prepare to protect themselves or leave.

Some odd Twitter accounts have been hyping things like this as new development in the last 24 hours which they are not.

Thanks for that. Looks like usual precautions then.

[EACLucifer]

EU apparently didn't want to increase sanctions on Iran for supplying drones and Shahed 131/136 prop cruise missiles to Russia.

These have largely been used to attack civilians - the propellor powered cruise missiles have no guidance beyond "go to these coordinates", and while that's also true of things like the rockets fired from M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS, those take a minute or so to reach the target, not hours, meaning they can be used on moving targets. Military targets are prone to moving about, hence the use of Shahed 131 and 136 missiles against civilian targets.

Now the talk is that Iran might be supplying ballistic missiles to Russia. I mean, it's not like they got much of a response for sending the drones, or for their malfeasance in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.

And the USA and the EU appear to still think they can and should normalise relations with this regime in exchange for a deal that won't even do much to hinder their nuclear program. Meanwhile the regime is massacring protesters, who are pretty clear that no deal should be made with this regime. And if they can overthrow the mullahs and the IRCG, then a deal wouldn't be anything like so critical anyway as the meddling, proxies, support for terrorism and nuclear program are regime projects, not anything supported much by the ordinary people of Iran.

[EACLucifer]

You don't necessarily even get as far as the front line before getting killed:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63273599

Two gunmen from "a former Soviet republic" opened fire at a training camp in Belgorod, killing 11 and wounding 15 before being killed themselves. The victims are described as volunteers rather than conscripts, for whatever difference that makes.

This sounds like a suicide attack, which is something new, and not by a lone gunman but by two, which suggests planning rather than someone who just snapped. Now it might yet be a one-off, but if would-be separatists from other republics are emboldened to mount attacks on Russians then things may really be on the verge of falling apart in the federation.

I’ve seen several reports that conscripts are being given little or no ammunition while in training. Could be an attempt to avoid incidents like this.

If the two assumed that they are going to be killed by the Ukrainians anyway, why not die killing Russians instead.

It appears the soldiers were Muslim, and the commanding officer there insulted Allah.

I don't mean did something that could be interpreted that way, I mean gave a speech in which he apparently insulted Allah, because he was unhappy with the idea of accomodating Muslim soldiers. This being after the Russians disproportionately drafted minority men, a lot of whom are Muslim.

Whether or not you believe live fire is a reasonable response to insulting someone's religion - I don't, though if reported accurately the commanding officer was a deliberately inflammatory and offensive bigot - it's important to understand that some people do feel that way. It's important to be aware of that before giving them live weapons, mistreating them, then deliberately being as offensive as possible towards their deeply held beliefs.

[Bird on a Fire]

Sounds like (two members of) the Russian Army finally got round to some denazification.

[Woodchopper]

Something afoot in Belarus

Employees at the Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations have received weapons from the MoD with the task of "maintaining order and protecting the country in the event of mass riots or armed conflict.", head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1581 ... HDJpEItDGQ

Video of military equipment on the move in Belarus (via @JayinKyiv). Note white triangle tactical marking. Similar was seen on some Russian military vehicles before Russia's full-scale invasion. See examples in thread below.

https://twitter.com/euan_macdonald/stat ... HDJpEItDGQ

Could be an explanation:

Up to 9,000 Russian troops will be stationed in Belarus as part of the "joint grouping of forces" deployment.

Their task is to create tension on Ukraine's northern border and keep a part of our troops there.

This is an attempt to stop our Southern and Eastern offensives.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/sta ... HDJpEItDGQ

[EACLucifer]

Something afoot in Belarus

Employees at the Belarusian Ministry of Emergency Situations have received weapons from the MoD with the task of "maintaining order and protecting the country in the event of mass riots or armed conflict.", head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1581 ... HDJpEItDGQ

Video of military equipment on the move in Belarus (via @JayinKyiv). Note white triangle tactical marking. Similar was seen on some Russian military vehicles before Russia's full-scale invasion. See examples in thread below.

https://twitter.com/euan_macdonald/stat ... HDJpEItDGQ

Could be an explanation:

Up to 9,000 Russian troops will be stationed in Belarus as part of the "joint grouping of forces" deployment.

Their task is to create tension on Ukraine's northern border and keep a part of our troops there.

This is an attempt to stop our Southern and Eastern offensives.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/sta ... HDJpEItDGQ

So far there don't seem to be enough present to do much damage, but it needs an eye keeping on it. I'm sure, of course, that the Ukrainian and Western intelligence services are doing just that.

But if they do try something, the Ukrainians shouldn't be forced to fight only on their side of the border.

In addition, Russia appears to be trying to get Iranian Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles.

The Fateh-110 has a range of something like 300km, while the Zolfaghar is something more like 700km. Accuracy is unknown, as is the precise range and warhead. It is important to note that Iranian military claims are often, not to put to fine a point on it, complete b.llsh.t. That said, the range on the Zolfaghar has been observed in a strike by Iran, though it appears in that case some fell a long way short. Even if they aren't that accurate, they still carry warheads, and they are quite likely to be aimed at cities anyway.

This makes the continued holding back of longer range weapons and fixed-wing aircraft even more ridiculous, especially as the collective west doesn't seem very interested in retaliating against Iran.

[jimbob]

Nice thread mentioning lots of occasions where Putin has backed down


https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/15817 ... K8ENIBaSow

[EACLucifer]

Nice thread mentioning lots of occasions where Putin has backed down


https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/15817 ... K8ENIBaSow

It's also worth mentioning that the use of advanced American weapons on Russian soil has not triggered any sort of apocalypse, not even a small one.

Specifically, an AGM-88 HARM anti-radiation missile struck a target, thought to be a military radar, at Belgorod Airport. The missile strikes exactly the point some (ineffective) AD launches originate from, so probably something like a Tor or a Pantsir.

This comes amidst a military buildup north of Ukraine including attack helicopters deployed at Belgorod airport, so it is a legitimate military target, and the US really ought to be permitting GMLRS strikes on that sort of target too.

[EACLucifer]

A Russian warplane has gone down in a residential area of Russia. Images show the pilot's parachute some way above, as the plane strikes a towerblock. I'm not going to link, it's an unpleasant image. If you need to see it to understand the situation, I'm sure you'll be able to find it.

I do realise just how big of an ask expecting someone to sacrifice themself for others is. Nonetheless, there's been a number of cases when pilots have done just that to stop their stricken planes from hitting people. Perhaps that wasn't possible here. Perhaps the pilot didn't care. Perhaps he did, but panicked and regretted it. f.ck knows.

[Martin Y]

I had a look on Google maps and it's a bl..dy awful situation for a military airport if they're taking off to the East. The airfield is only 2 miles from the coast, but that 2 mile strip is entirely filled by the town. Fully laden planes aren't that manoeuvrable so you're pretty well committed to going over it. He got a mile and a half.

[EACLucifer]

I had a look on Google maps and it's a bl..dy awful situation for a military airport if they're taking off to the East. The airfield is only 2 miles from the coast, but that 2 mile strip is entirely filled by the town. Fully laden planes aren't that manoeuvrable so you're pretty well committed to going over it. He got a mile and a half.

Probably not the pilots fault, then, but there was something horrible about Russian state media crowing that the pilots ejected successfully without even mentioning the f.cking towerblock the plane slammed into.

[Millennie Al]

From https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 04588.html

The Russian defence ministry said one of the engines of the Su-34 bomber caught fire, causing it to go down in the port of Yeysk

Video (from quite some distance) of plane and crash fireball: https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/15 ... KC_R_La0aw flash at 0:18 is presumably ejection, but too far away to see the pilot or parachute. Photo further down the thread from much closer shows parachute quite clearly.

[Woodchopper]

Thread argues that Russian troop movements to Belarus don't threaten Ukraine (looks like the troops are there for training).
https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/statu ... zGsXkuizWA

[lpm]

Intimidating.