Scrutable

lpm wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:29 am Intimidating.

lpm wrote: Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:29 am Intimidating.

The threat of a collapse in freight traffic is growing at Russian Railways due to a shortage of bearings for heavy-duty wagons, reports Railway Supply citing sprotyv.info. The so-called innovative wagons, which can carry 8 tons more than conventional ones, were left without spare parts after sanctions hit Russia over the invasion of Ukraine and foreign manufacturers began to leave the Russian market.

Bearings for freight cars

By the end of August, about 10,000 freight cars were taken out of service due to the lack of bearings and the impossibility of repair. In total, more than 200,000 wagons are at risk, estimates the National Transport Company (NTC), one of the largest operators of innovative wagons.

Locomotives modernization

The main manufacturers of cassette bearings for them were the Swedish SKF, as well as Timken and Amsted Rail from the USA. All three companies left Russia after the start of the war. Components were brought from abroad, and only the final assembly was carried out at Russian enterprises. Now there is nothing to assemble them from and nothing to replace imports with. They need sealants and lubricants, which are produced neither in Russia nor the CIS.

Until the end of the year, the shortage of bearings will be about 100,000 units, and this is provided that Russian manufacturers supply 95,000 units. But whether import substitution is possible in principle remains unclear. And while the management of Russian Railways is looking for new suppliers, several thousand cars, the scheduled repair of which is impossible due to the lack of cassette bearings, are already being dismantled for spare parts.

Looks like the Russians finished creating a barge bridge over the #Dnipro near #Kherson in the past 24 hours. Imagery from Oct 18 show a barge pushing the last parts into place at 0814 UTC. This allows Russia to resupply faster or to evacuate quickly. It's also an easy target.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is signaling that if Republicans win the House majority in next month’s midterm elections, the GOP is likely to oppose more aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Since the invasion in February the majority of congressional Republicans and Democrats have united in authorizing billions of dollars in U.S. military and humanitarian assistance to Kyiv as a geopolitical and moral stand against Vladimir Putin’s aggression.

McCarthy, who could be House speaker if Republicans triumph, indicated that that could end in a GOP-led House.
“I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” he recently told Punchbowl News. “They just won’t do it.”

[…]

Although most of the congressional leadership, most notably Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have been steadfast in support for Ukraine, voters in several states in January could send Republicans to Washington who are eager to oppose aid. The number of those wary of foreign aid and adherents of former president Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda are expected to grow in the next Congress.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday declared martial law in four Ukrainian regions that Moscow claims to have annexed as the Russian military continues to be plagued by setbacks in its eight-month offensive.

[…]

Martial law will enter into force from early Thursday, according to the decree published by the Kremlin.

The four regions' Russian-appointed leaders will also be granted “additional authority,” Putin said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Russia will not close its borders following the martial law declaration.

Under Russian law, martial law gives authorities sweeping powers to impose curfews, travel and residence restrictions, military censorship and more.

The country's Constitution states that when martial law is in effect “the rights and freedoms of citizens of the Russian Federation, foreign citizens and stateless persons” may be restricted.

Russia may take "other measures" under existing martial law "if necessary," the Kremlin's decree Wednesday states, including unspecified "limitations on rights and freedoms" and "additional obligations," as well as "general or partial mobilization."

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin sought to quell worries that the declaration would impact residents of the Russian capital, saying in a Telegram post that the city will not impose any measures that might change “the normal rhythm of life” in the city.

Russia’s Krasnodar, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk and Rostov regions, as well as the annexed Crimean peninsula, should increase their security, implement a special entry regime and limit the movement of vehicles over their borders, according to the Kremlin's decrees. These regions also have the authority to temporarily evacuate residents to safe areas.

Russia’s Constitution gives the president the power to declare martial law “in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation or of a direct threat of aggression,” requiring that the president inform both houses of Russian parliament, the Federation Council and the State Duma.

The upper-house Federation Council approved the declaration of martial law later Wednesday, the final formality needed for it to become official.

Woodchopper wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 5:48 am

Looks like the Russians finished creating a barge bridge over the #Dnipro near #Kherson in the past 24 hours. Imagery from Oct 18 show a barge pushing the last parts into place at 0814 UTC. This allows Russia to resupply faster or to evacuate quickly. It's also an easy target.

https://twitter.com/artisanalapt/status ... k2AScaqPRg

I’m wondering whether the discussed evacuation of civilians will be a cover for also evacuating the troops.

plodder wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 4:47 pm Cheap drones vs expensive missiles is an interesting one

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ssia-costs

I was pretty amazed at the cost of £20k for a drone, that’s the price of a fairly fancy new car

bjn wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:00 pm

plodder wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 4:47 pm Cheap drones vs expensive missiles is an interesting one

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ssia-costs

I was pretty amazed at the cost of £20k for a drone, that’s the price of a fairly fancy new car

Cheap 2 stroke motor, fibreglass shell, simple dumb guidance system and some explosives.

bjn wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:50 pm Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

bjn wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:50 pm Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

plodder wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:48 pm

bjn wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:50 pm Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

if it's just a lawnmower engine on a few plastic panels we can expect to see a lot more shed built flying machines in the near future

headshot wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 4:46 am So these drones are less sophisticated than German V1 rockets? Or do they have a guidance system?

plodder wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:48 pm

bjn wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:50 pm Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

if it's just a lawnmower engine on a few plastic panels we can expect to see a lot more shed built flying machines in the near future

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:10 am

plodder wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 10:48 pm

bjn wrote: Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:50 pm Labour is cheaper in Iran, plus a lot fewer parts in those drones than in a car. Think giant model plane. I gather that the two stroke motor is the most expensive but.

if it's just a lawnmower engine on a few plastic panels we can expect to see a lot more shed built flying machines in the near future

The guidance system is the tricky bit. Someone would need to design the hardware and software to fly the aircraft toward the target. A craft that small will need to make course corrections as it’ll be affected by the weather.

Woodchopper wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:21 am On the cost to make one, the complication is that Iran is under sanctions. Even companies that aren’t legally required to not sell there probably won’t want to deal with the country. The Iranian ministry of defence can’t just call up a supplier in Bavaria or New Jersey and get the components it needs.

A comparison with a £20000 car isn’t valid as the car benefits from global supply chains and vast economies of scale.

Imagine the cost of building cars if all the components had to be either made in house (from casting the crankshaft to writing the software) or imported via a complex network of illegal front companies and dealers needed to evade sanctions and company policies.

plodder wrote: Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:55 amWhat this country needs, more than anything else, is more shed time.