Page 120 of 258
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 12:09 am
by raven
raven wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:24 pm
If numbers aren't being supressed by lack of testing, it looks like my area is over the peak and trending down nicely. The area my parents live in, not so much.
Except that thanks to Woodchopper's link I found this ONS page:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... and17apriln
Which is great if anyone wants to look at local data. The stats for my area say Covid deaths are running at almost a third the rate of all deaths. Yikes. Although that's age-standardised, not raw. But still.
shpalman wrote:But it means lots of you would be likely to know people who had symptoms but didn't/couldn't get tested.
Well, one of son#1's friends was sick 3 or 4 weeks ago, & not tested.
I also know of one death in hospital, tested 7 times and all negative as far as relatives know, but Covid-19 was the third thing on the death certificate. Dunno how that gets counted.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 7:03 am
by jimbob
Little waster wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:39 pm
BBC News are still running the bogus 100,000 test number as “Breaking News”, natch.
Even the Mail didn't run that uncritically
- EW9CVj3XsAAQnNe.jpeg (73.48 KiB) Viewed 5359 times
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 8:49 am
by MartinDurkin
shpalman wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 4:53 pm
...
But it means lots of you would be likely to know people who had symptoms but didn't/couldn't get tested.
Anecdotally, niece is a district nurse caring for mainly EOL patients in the community. She had bad flu symptoms about 4 weeks ago, which cleared up after a few days and she was back at work a week later (if I understood correctly). Her partner is a theatre nurse (temp ICU nurse at the mo) and had to take 2 weeks off but had no symptoms and is now back at work. Neither were able to get tested.
Friends son works in A&E in Derby (junior doctor) and was tested (negative) but his view was the test would not have been of reasonable quality as the swab was not far enough back in his nose, but they wouldn't retest. His brother, also a junior doctor, in Birmingham A&E had not been tested when we last spoke last week.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 9:07 am
by bob sterman
MartinDurkin wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 8:49 am
Friends son works in A&E in Derby (junior doctor) and was tested (negative) but his view was the test would not have been of reasonable quality as the swab was not far enough back in his nose, but they wouldn't retest. His brother, also a junior doctor, in Birmingham A&E had not been tested when we last spoke last week.
This a worry I have about the home testing for keyworkers - people are expected to swab themselves. So if not done correctly we're going to see a lot of false negatives and people thinking it's OK to return to work.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 9:24 am
by gosling
bob sterman wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 9:07 amThis a worry I have about the home testing for keyworkers - people are expected to swab themselves. So if not done correctly we're going to see a lot of false negatives and people thinking it's OK to return to work.
MrsG is an OT. At the beginning of last week we both had the same symptoms - bit of a temperature, bit of a cough - so thought it was possible we had the virus. Started self-isolating just as they rolled out testing to key workers and household members. We don't have a car and only managed to get a home test kit booked on Sunday, which arrived on Monday afternoon. Unfortunately as the website to book the courier pickup is only open from 8am to 4pm, we missed the cut off by 15 mins. So courier was booked for Wednesday, which meant doing the swabs at 7am that morning - more than a week after first having symptoms. The instructions for taking the nasal swab said it only need to be inserted 2.5cm (nothing like the pictures you see on the news), so no idea if we did it properly.
Got the results yesterday - both negative. So we either didn't do the swabs properly, were too late to get tested, didn't have it seriously enough to be picked up (? don't know if this is a thing), or we never had it. Anyway, I'll be leaving the house today!
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 12:18 pm
by MartinDurkin
Interactive map of COVID-19 deaths per area in England & Wales
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... tput-areas
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 2:55 pm
by Woodchopper
Sweden estimates that R is now under 1.
Daily estimates can be found on page 2 (in Swedish):
https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/con ... numret.pdf
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 3:16 pm
by bob sterman
gosling wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 9:24 am
bob sterman wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 9:07 amThis a worry I have about the home testing for keyworkers - people are expected to swab themselves. So if not done correctly we're going to see a lot of false negatives and people thinking it's OK to return to work.
MrsG is an OT. At the beginning of last week we both had the same symptoms - bit of a temperature, bit of a cough - so thought it was possible we had the virus. Started self-isolating just as they rolled out testing to key workers and household members. We don't have a car and only managed to get a home test kit booked on Sunday, which arrived on Monday afternoon. Unfortunately as the website to book the courier pickup is only open from 8am to 4pm, we missed the cut off by 15 mins. So courier was booked for Wednesday, which meant doing the swabs at 7am that morning - more than a week after first having symptoms. The instructions for taking the nasal swab said it only need to be inserted 2.5cm (nothing like the pictures you see on the news), so no idea if we did it properly.
Got the results yesterday - both negative. So we either didn't do the swabs properly, were too late to get tested, didn't have it seriously enough to be picked up (? don't know if this is a thing), or we never had it. Anyway, I'll be leaving the house today!
Sounds pretty standard. Some home test kits are being sent out via Amazon couriers but the return is just via Royal Mail. Patient is told to stick it in a priority post box before 11am. Supposedly 24hour delivery - but one big lab is in Belfast. Not great for samples from London. Leaflet says lab will send result within 72 hours of receiving the specimen.
So taken all together - there is very little chance of getting results within 7 days from symptom onset.
But apparently you get counted in the UK 100,000 tests per day statistics as soon as they post the swab to you!
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 5:50 pm
by jimbob
Does anyone have the official UK stats for tests and confirmed cases from the last few days?
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 6:07 pm
by shpalman
jimbob wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 5:50 pm
Does anyone have the official UK stats for tests and confirmed cases from the last few days?
I have this, some of it from that github I posted above and some dug out of the twitter. The number of cases who have recovered hasn't been updated for a long while.
Code: Select all
date new total deaths rec. tests cases tested
03/04/20 4450 38168 4461 135 219804 173784
04/04/20 3735 41903 5221 135 230788 183190
05/04/20 5914 47806 5865 135 241873 195524
06/04/20 3802 51608 6433 135 252958 208837
07/04/20 3634 55242 7471 135 266694 213181
08/04/20 5491 60733 8505 135 282074 232708
09/04/20 4344 65077 9608 135 298169 243421
10/04/20 5195 70272 10760 135 316836 256605
11/04/20 5234 78991 11599 135 334974 269598
12/04/20 5288 84279 12285 135 352974 282279
13/04/20 4342 88621 13029 135 367667 290720
14/04/20 5252 93873 14073 135 382650 302599
15/04/20 4605 98476 14915 135 398916 313769
16/04/20 4618 103093 15944 135 417649 327608
17/04/20 5599 108692 16879 135 438991 341551
18/04/20 5526 114217 17994 135 460437 357023
19/04/20 5850 120067 18492 135 482063 372967
20/04/20 4676 124743 19051 135 501379 386044
21/04/20 4301 129044 20223 135 535342 397670
22/04/20 4451 133495 21060 135 559935 411192
23/04/20 4583 138078 21787 135 583496 425821
24/04/20 5386 143464 22792 135 612031 444222
25/04/20 4913 148377 23635 135 640792 517836
26/04/20 4463 152840 24055 135 669850 543413
27/04/20 4309 157149 24393 135 719910 569768
28/04/20 3996 161145 25302 135 763387 599339
29/04/20 4076 165221 26097 135 818539 632794
30/04/20 6032 171253 26771 135 901905 687369
01/05/20 6201 177454 27510 135 1023824 762279
02/05/20 4806 182260 28131 135 1129907 825946
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 9:11 pm
by gosling
bob sterman wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 3:16 pm
So taken all together - there is very little chance of getting results within 7 days from symptom onset.
But apparently you get counted in the UK 100,000 tests per day statistics as soon as they post the swab to you!
So instead of arguing about how they come up with the 100,000 a day figure, really we should be highlighting the pointlessness of the way the tests are being carried out as the majority will end up giving negative results?
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 9:24 pm
by Gfamily
MrsG (more a twitter follower than I) told me of a key worker who was posted a kit, but one that didn't have a return label.
The recipient phoned the helpline and were told to throw away the kit.
It is not beyond the rational mind to think that this might be a deliberate approach to boost the 'test numbers' where they know that there's not sufficient capacity for them to be tested.
Quite apart from the failure of the test itself to detect infection - already considered to be up to 30% false negatives where conducted by trained staff - and maybe as much as 50% when self-conducted
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 9:31 pm
by jimbob
shpalman wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 6:07 pm
jimbob wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 5:50 pm
Does anyone have the official UK stats for tests and confirmed cases from the last few days?
I have this, some of it from that github I posted above and some dug out of the twitter. The number of cases who have recovered hasn't been updated for a long while.
Code: Select all
date new total deaths rec. tests cases tested
03/04/20 4450 38168 4461 135 219804 173784
04/04/20 3735 41903 5221 135 230788 183190
05/04/20 5914 47806 5865 135 241873 195524
06/04/20 3802 51608 6433 135 252958 208837
07/04/20 3634 55242 7471 135 266694 213181
08/04/20 5491 60733 8505 135 282074 232708
09/04/20 4344 65077 9608 135 298169 243421
10/04/20 5195 70272 10760 135 316836 256605
11/04/20 5234 78991 11599 135 334974 269598
12/04/20 5288 84279 12285 135 352974 282279
13/04/20 4342 88621 13029 135 367667 290720
14/04/20 5252 93873 14073 135 382650 302599
15/04/20 4605 98476 14915 135 398916 313769
16/04/20 4618 103093 15944 135 417649 327608
17/04/20 5599 108692 16879 135 438991 341551
18/04/20 5526 114217 17994 135 460437 357023
19/04/20 5850 120067 18492 135 482063 372967
20/04/20 4676 124743 19051 135 501379 386044
21/04/20 4301 129044 20223 135 535342 397670
22/04/20 4451 133495 21060 135 559935 411192
23/04/20 4583 138078 21787 135 583496 425821
24/04/20 5386 143464 22792 135 612031 444222
25/04/20 4913 148377 23635 135 640792 517836
26/04/20 4463 152840 24055 135 669850 543413
27/04/20 4309 157149 24393 135 719910 569768
28/04/20 3996 161145 25302 135 763387 599339
29/04/20 4076 165221 26097 135 818539 632794
30/04/20 6032 171253 26771 135 901905 687369
01/05/20 6201 177454 27510 135 1023824 762279
02/05/20 4806 182260 28131 135 1129907 825946
Thanks...
Of course in the interests of at least trying to look transparent, the government should have that handy table around. After all, they know many people will have created their own versions, so they aren't making it any harder - just looking shifty (which is accurate).
I notice that the number of daily tests is listed as less than 100k. I'm glad to see that they didn't change the data there.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sat May 02, 2020 10:26 pm
by bjn
I’m seeing a lot of chatter about Sweden having done the right thing by not enforcing a lock down and everything being hunky dory there. Telegraph articles are cited. Is this a fair thing?
From my cursory digging, to date, they seem to have had just over half the fatalities per capita as compared to the U.K., However community transmission seems to have kicked off at least a month later than in the U.K., so adjusting for that, they have 1 death per 5000 people, as opposed to the U.K.’s 1 death per 13,000 people a month ago. Doesn’t sound so good to me. Am I missing something?
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 7:34 am
by lpm
They are number 3 in the world (deaths per capita, last 7 days). So hunky dory compared to UK and Belgium.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 7:40 am
by badger
jimbob wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 9:31 pm
shpalman wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 6:07 pm
jimbob wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 5:50 pm
Does anyone have the official UK stats for tests and confirmed cases from the last few days?
I have this, some of it from that github I posted above and some dug out of the twitter. The number of cases who have recovered hasn't been updated for a long while.
Code: Select all
date new total deaths rec. tests cases tested
03/04/20 4450 38168 4461 135 219804 173784
04/04/20 3735 41903 5221 135 230788 183190
05/04/20 5914 47806 5865 135 241873 195524
06/04/20 3802 51608 6433 135 252958 208837
07/04/20 3634 55242 7471 135 266694 213181
08/04/20 5491 60733 8505 135 282074 232708
09/04/20 4344 65077 9608 135 298169 243421
10/04/20 5195 70272 10760 135 316836 256605
11/04/20 5234 78991 11599 135 334974 269598
12/04/20 5288 84279 12285 135 352974 282279
13/04/20 4342 88621 13029 135 367667 290720
14/04/20 5252 93873 14073 135 382650 302599
15/04/20 4605 98476 14915 135 398916 313769
16/04/20 4618 103093 15944 135 417649 327608
17/04/20 5599 108692 16879 135 438991 341551
18/04/20 5526 114217 17994 135 460437 357023
19/04/20 5850 120067 18492 135 482063 372967
20/04/20 4676 124743 19051 135 501379 386044
21/04/20 4301 129044 20223 135 535342 397670
22/04/20 4451 133495 21060 135 559935 411192
23/04/20 4583 138078 21787 135 583496 425821
24/04/20 5386 143464 22792 135 612031 444222
25/04/20 4913 148377 23635 135 640792 517836
26/04/20 4463 152840 24055 135 669850 543413
27/04/20 4309 157149 24393 135 719910 569768
28/04/20 3996 161145 25302 135 763387 599339
29/04/20 4076 165221 26097 135 818539 632794
30/04/20 6032 171253 26771 135 901905 687369
01/05/20 6201 177454 27510 135 1023824 762279
02/05/20 4806 182260 28131 135 1129907 825946
Thanks...
Of course in the interests of at least trying to look transparent, the government should have that handy table around. After all, they know many people will have created their own versions, so they aren't making it any harder - just looking shifty (which is accurate).
I notice that the number of daily tests is listed as less than 100k. I'm glad to see that they didn't change the data there.
But the difference in total number of tests is >100k for the last two days?
What am I missing?
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 8:25 am
by bjn
lpm wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 7:34 am
They are number 3 in the world (deaths per capita, last 7 days). So hunky dory compared to UK and Belgium.
6th from what I can see.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 10:08 am
by lpm
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... RA+DEU+ECU
Ignore Ireland, that's a stats thing where a chunk of deaths was added.
Belgium are diligent about trying to capture all deaths (but still will be understating like everyone else)
Iran, Brazil and Ecuador are probably in the top three spots, if we had proper info.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 10:21 am
by jimbob
badger wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 7:40 am
jimbob wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 9:31 pm
shpalman wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 6:07 pm
I have this, some of it from that github I posted above and some dug out of the twitter. The number of cases who have recovered hasn't been updated for a long while.
Code: Select all
date new total deaths rec. tests cases tested
03/04/20 4450 38168 4461 135 219804 173784
04/04/20 3735 41903 5221 135 230788 183190
05/04/20 5914 47806 5865 135 241873 195524
06/04/20 3802 51608 6433 135 252958 208837
07/04/20 3634 55242 7471 135 266694 213181
08/04/20 5491 60733 8505 135 282074 232708
09/04/20 4344 65077 9608 135 298169 243421
10/04/20 5195 70272 10760 135 316836 256605
11/04/20 5234 78991 11599 135 334974 269598
12/04/20 5288 84279 12285 135 352974 282279
13/04/20 4342 88621 13029 135 367667 290720
14/04/20 5252 93873 14073 135 382650 302599
15/04/20 4605 98476 14915 135 398916 313769
16/04/20 4618 103093 15944 135 417649 327608
17/04/20 5599 108692 16879 135 438991 341551
18/04/20 5526 114217 17994 135 460437 357023
19/04/20 5850 120067 18492 135 482063 372967
20/04/20 4676 124743 19051 135 501379 386044
21/04/20 4301 129044 20223 135 535342 397670
22/04/20 4451 133495 21060 135 559935 411192
23/04/20 4583 138078 21787 135 583496 425821
24/04/20 5386 143464 22792 135 612031 444222
25/04/20 4913 148377 23635 135 640792 517836
26/04/20 4463 152840 24055 135 669850 543413
27/04/20 4309 157149 24393 135 719910 569768
28/04/20 3996 161145 25302 135 763387 599339
29/04/20 4076 165221 26097 135 818539 632794
30/04/20 6032 171253 26771 135 901905 687369
01/05/20 6201 177454 27510 135 1023824 762279
02/05/20 4806 182260 28131 135 1129907 825946
Thanks...
Of course in the interests of at least trying to look transparent, the government should have that handy table around. After all, they know many people will have created their own versions, so they aren't making it any harder - just looking shifty (which is accurate).
I notice that the number of daily tests is listed as less than 100k. I'm glad to see that they didn't change the data there.
But the difference in total number of tests is >100k for the last two days?
What am I missing?
I was looking at the cases tested data
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 10:35 am
by badger
jimbob wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 10:21 am
badger wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 7:40 am
jimbob wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 9:31 pm
Thanks...
Of course in the interests of at least trying to look transparent, the government should have that handy table around. After all, they know many people will have created their own versions, so they aren't making it any harder - just looking shifty (which is accurate).
I notice that the number of daily tests is listed as less than 100k. I'm glad to see that they didn't change the data there.
But the difference in total number of tests is >100k for the last two days?
What am I missing?
I was looking at the cases tested data
"number of daily tests", which is not the same as cases tested, I think?
Daily difference on 1st of May:
"tests" 121,929
"cases tested" 74,910
What's the make up of the 45k between those numbers?
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 10:49 am
by shpalman
It's the difference between the number of swabs, and the number of people who have been swabbed. Some people will have been swabbed more than once (in Italy it takes two negative swabs within 24 hours of each other to declare someone cured but the UK is not declaring anyone cured that I've noticed).
It's not clear if the "number of people tested" includes people who've had a test posted to them, while that test is included in the "number of tests" number to make it look like > 100,000. We'll see how sustainable that number is (and if they didn't just save up lots of tests to send/register on the same day).
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 10:53 am
by bjn
lpm wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 10:08 am
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/dail ... RA+DEU+ECU
Ignore Ireland, that's a stats thing where a chunk of deaths was added.
Belgium are diligent about trying to capture all deaths (but still will be understating like everyone else)
Iran, Brazil and Ecuador are probably in the top three spots, if we had proper info.
tx
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 10:58 am
by RoMo
shpalman wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 10:49 am
It's the difference between the number of swabs, and the number of people who have been swabbed.
I wonder how they know the difference, as the data we have to send to the government daily is total tests carried out, number of tests split my patients and staff and the number of positive samples in each category - no de-duplication involved.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 11:02 am
by shpalman
RoMo wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 10:58 am
shpalman wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 10:49 am
It's the difference between the number of swabs, and the number of people who have been swabbed.
I wonder how they know the difference, as the data we have to send to the government daily is total tests carried out, number of tests split my patients and staff and the number of positive samples in each category - no de-duplication involved.
I don't know.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/12 ... 9746253824
In Italy the "number of people tested" has only become available in the past week or so, as compared to the numbers of swabs carried out.
Re: COVID-19
Posted: Sun May 03, 2020 3:02 pm
by badger
Thanks for clarification above.
When we've been waving at stats from other countries about the number of tests (and lack of them in UK), are those numbers swabs or cases/people?
It seems it's becoming increasingly difficult to make comparisons internationally given the difference and opacity around the definitions and collection method.