Scrutable

Barack Obama just gave an amazing eulogy at the funeral service for John Lewis. Oh how I miss having a decent, intelligent, and articulate president.

bolo wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:27 pm Barack Obama just gave an amazing eulogy at the funeral service for John Lewis. Oh how I miss having a decent, intelligent, and articulate president.

Did you see the pallbearer snub Mitch Mconnell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ro6mIZYwYQ

jimbob wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:23 pm

bolo wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:27 pm Barack Obama just gave an amazing eulogy at the funeral service for John Lewis. Oh how I miss having a decent, intelligent, and articulate president.

Did you see the pallbearer snub Mitch Mconnell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ro6mIZYwYQ

So that's what the "not you" meme looks like when played out in real life.

Here is a video of the eulogy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P3X9AiN8E4

jimbob wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:23 pm

bolo wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:27 pm Barack Obama just gave an amazing eulogy at the funeral service for John Lewis. Oh how I miss having a decent, intelligent, and articulate president.

Did you see the pallbearer snub Mitch Mconnell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ro6mIZYwYQ

That's not the funeral service for John Lewis, though, it's from the funeral of Elijah Cummins, nearly a year ago.

Martin_B wrote: Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:25 am

jimbob wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:23 pm

bolo wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:27 pm Barack Obama just gave an amazing eulogy at the funeral service for John Lewis. Oh how I miss having a decent, intelligent, and articulate president.

Did you see the pallbearer snub Mitch Mconnell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ro6mIZYwYQ

That's not the funeral service for John Lewis, though, it's from the funeral of Elijah Cummins, nearly a year ago.

Those two seem to have spent most of their adult lives and deaths being mistaken for each other. A couple of gop sensors tweeted pictures of themselves with Cummings as part of their condolence messages for Lewis. Oops.

Martin_B wrote: Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:25 am

jimbob wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 7:23 pm

bolo wrote: Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:27 pm Barack Obama just gave an amazing eulogy at the funeral service for John Lewis. Oh how I miss having a decent, intelligent, and articulate president.

Did you see the pallbearer snub Mitch Mconnell?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ro6mIZYwYQ

That's not the funeral service for John Lewis, though, it's from the funeral of Elijah Cummins, nearly a year ago.

But from Lewis’ funeral, there was also this - Obama finishes his eulogy, leaves the podium, and as he nears his security detail, pauses to put on a mask. Because he’s not an irrational crybaby, and knows what the sensible, rational thing to do is.

https://twitter.com/photosbybeanz/statu ... 98177?s=21

Remarkable difference in intended voting method between Trump and Biden supporters:

Is it that Trump supporters don't trust mail-in voting? (From Emerson College.)

Holy culture wars, Batman.

I'm reminded a bit of The City & the City by China Miéville: two states occupying the same physical space, but with completely distinct cultures to the extent that their citizens refuse to even acknowledge each others' existence.

The clip of that interview on the Guardian there was greatly improved by also playing the Curb Your Enthusiasm theme underneath

Vertigowooyay wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:06 pm Jesus, what an absolute car crash of an interview...

With the Lewis and Maxwell segments its the same theme. Lewis snubbed Trump so he can't compliment him, whereas the child sex trafficker Maxwell knew Trump so he wishes her well. Its all about The Donald and nothing else matters.

Woodchopper wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:34 pm

Vertigowooyay wrote: Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:06 pm Jesus, what an absolute car crash of an interview...

With the Lewis and Maxwell segments its the same theme. Lewis snubbed Trump so he can't compliment him, whereas the child sex trafficker Maxwell knew Trump so he wishes her well. Its all about The Donald and nothing else matters.

Also saying of the pandemic "it is what it is" belies the stultifying lack of empathy that surely now is apparent to even some ardent supporters.

This is a fun tool.

Here's a possible best-case scenario based on current polling as it is. It includes the democrats winning Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Maine-2 and North Carolina - all of which are possible given current state-level polling. The democrats would win by 276 electoral votes. Iowa is still just about Republican. Texas is more likely.

If the current polls are too generous to Biden by around 5%, or Biden loses that much in the next few months, then the states I mention above will just fall into Republican territory, but none of the other big hitters such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan or even Florida will. Biden still wins by 100 electoral votes. Map here.

Six points more to Trump over current polling and Biden likely fails to win Florida or Nevada. Democrats still win by 30 points.

Seven points more and it's game over - Trump wins Pennsylvania and NE-2, winning re-election by 12 points. Let's just hope that doesn't happen.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:51 am Six points more to Trump over current polling and Biden likely fails to win Florida or Nevada. Democrats still win by 30 points.

Not sure why Biden would win Arizona but lose the easier Nevada, but this doesn't change the story. Problem with this scenario is that it means Biden only wins by a single state. Trump shouting "Electoral fraud in Pennsylvania, I'm still President" isn't attractive... If it's decided by <10 EV then he could have electoral fraud in any of PA or MI or WI as his excuse.

It would be funny to see him try the line that there was fraud in Texas and Florida and Ohio and Georgia and North Carolina and Pennsylvania and Arizona.

lpm wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:13 am
It would be funny to see him try the line that there was fraud in Texas and Florida and Ohio and Georgia and North Carolina and Pennsylvania and Arizona.

Nah that’s just proves how deep the Deep State goes.

I’ve not been paying attention for the last 4 years so I assume the Swamp is now a bucolic picnic spot and the nepotistic Rest of the World look on in envy at the smoothly transparent and corruption-free functioning of the Trump administration.

I also assume that the child sex ring Clinton was running out of a pizza takeaway got closed down sharpish too.

lpm wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:13 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:51 am Six points more to Trump over current polling and Biden likely fails to win Florida or Nevada. Democrats still win by 30 points.

Not sure why Biden would win Arizona but lose the easier Nevada

Just my stupid fingers, I'm afraid. It'd be a win by very few points, and probably spark some sort of odd civil war.

Little waster wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:27 am I also assume that the child sex ring Clinton was running out of a pizza takeaway got closed down sharpish too.

Well, one child sex ring is getting taken down.

dyqik wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:12 pm

Little waster wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:27 am I also assume that the child sex ring Clinton was running out of a pizza takeaway got closed down sharpish too.

Well, one child sex ring is getting taken down.

Is there any update on when we can expect the first prosecutions from all those reported blackmail tapes they confiscated? Surely if you've got someone on camera committing a crime it doesn't take that long to build a case?

Bird on a Fire wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:30 pm

dyqik wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 12:12 pm

Little waster wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:27 am I also assume that the child sex ring Clinton was running out of a pizza takeaway got closed down sharpish too.

Well, one child sex ring is getting taken down.

Is there any update on when we can expect the first prosecutions from all those reported blackmail tapes they confiscated? Surely if you've got someone on camera committing a crime it doesn't take that long to build a case?

That rather depends on the DoInjustice

Iowa is a f.cking weird state. Just about tips into Trump support, but they seem to favour the democrat senate candidate over the republican.

Yes, that's what I thought. It's weird at the Congressional level.

IA-01 = swing seat.
President: Gore-Kerry-Obama-Obama, but Trump (+4) in 2016.
Senate: voted Ernst (R) in 2014 (+0.4).
House: seat captured by Democrats in 2018, polls show should be easily retained in 2020

IA-02 = swing seat.
President: Gore-Kerry-Obama-Obama, but Trump (+5) in 2016.
Senate: voted Ernst (R) in 2014 (+2).
House: seat has been Democrat for 16 years, with a +12 margin in 2018 - but incumbent stepping down and polls show the Republicans now ahead by +3

IA-03 = swing seat.
President: Gore-Bush-Obama-Obama, but Trump (+3) in 2016.
Senate: voted Ernst (R) in 2014 (+3).
House: seat captured by Democrats in 2018, polls show should be easily retained in 2020

IA-04 = solid Republican seat.
President: Bush-Bush-Obama-Romney, and Trump (+27) in 2016.
Senate: voted Ernst (R) in 2014 (+22).
House: seat was Steve King for years. He's the actual Nazi who praised Auschwitz. But he was defeated in his primary. New Republican will win comfortably.

The Senate seat was Democrat for 30 years but Joni Ernst captured it by +8 in 2014, which was a massive swing from Democrat to Republican. In theory, there's every chance it could flip back - Ernst seems to lag Trump in polling. The "scrappy farm kid with farm kid values" who I'm following seems popular enough but it's odd she's polling better than Biden.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:03 am Iowa is a f.cking weird state. Just about tips into Trump support, but they seem to favour the democrat senate candidate over the republican.

Some background

Tl;dr version: relative high and low points in the election cycle, large number of independent voters, substantial downticket Trump drag and the (moderate) Democrat is making all the running on a popular pro-social security stance in contrast to the Rep who wants to castrate it.

You can also add to that the loss of the Repug’s sophomore boost and a degree of split ticket voting.

“Thighland”

That is all.