Scrutable

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:38 pm Final polls should be in tomorrow. In June 2017, the spread of final polls was this, with the actual poll result on the bottom line:

Code: Select all

					C	L	LD	U	G	Lead(%)
Panelbase/		2017-06-07	44	36	7	5	2	8
Kantar/			2017-06-07	43	38	7	4	2	5
ICM/Guardian		2017-06-07	46	34	7	5	2	12
YouGov/Times		2017-06-07	42	35	10	5	2	7
ComRes/Independent	2017-06-07	44	34	9	5	2	10
Survation/		2017-06-07	41	40	8	2	2	1
BMG/Herald		2017-06-07	46	33	8	5	3	13
Ipsos-MORI/Eve. Std.	2017-06-07	44	36	7	4	2	8
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Actual Result		2017-06-08	42.3	40	7.4	1.8	1.6	2.3

It'll be interesting to see what the spread looks like tomorrow.

					C	L	LD	Br	G	Lead(%)
Panelbase/		2019-12-11	43	34	11	4	3	9
Kantar/			2019-12-11	44	32	13	3	3	12
ICM			2019-12-10	42	36	12	3	2	6
YouGov			2019-12-10	43	34	12	3	3	9
ComRes/Telegraph	2019-12-11	41	36	12	3	2	5
Survation/		2019-12-11	45	34	9	3	3	11
BMG			2019-12-11	41	32	14	3	4	9
Deltapoll		2019-12-11	45	35	10	3	3	10
Opinium			2019-12-11	45	33	12	2	2	12

GeenDienst wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:23 am This is the only explanation I can think of why Corbyn called this election when way behind in the polls, reportedly over the objections of his shadow cabinet, and when the Johnson government was trapped and floundering.

GeenDienst wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:07 am Is there a way to make this site play "Lady In Red" in the background?

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:09 amWe don't want the site being shut down.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:09 am And besides, I'm pretty sure that the UN War Crimes Commission have said that Chris de Burgh torture is illegal and never has any justification. We don't want the site being shut down.

Also, if we did play any Chris de burgh it'd be a spaceman came travelling.

tenchboy wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:09 am And besides, I'm pretty sure that the UN War Crimes Commission have said that Chris de Burgh torture is illegal and never has any justification. We don't want the site being shut down.

Also, if we did play any Chris de burgh it'd be a spaceman came travelling.

Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?

tenchboy wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am
Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?

GeenDienst wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:07 am Is there a way to make this site play "Lady In Red" in the background?

dyqik wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:25 pm

tenchboy wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am
Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?

There's nothing wrong per se with light years as a unit of time. It's just a bit weird, as a light-light-year would be equal to exactly one year. I guess you could define them using a light-year of distance in vacuum, and then use the speed of light in the local medium for conversion back to time, so that a light-light-year is longer under the sea or in other dielectrics.

Maybe this election result will last for more than half a light-parsec.

Gfamily wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:15 pm

dyqik wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:25 pm

tenchboy wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am
Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?

There's nothing wrong per se with light years as a unit of time. It's just a bit weird, as a light-light-year would be equal to exactly one year. I guess you could define them using a light-year of distance in vacuum, and then use the speed of light in the local medium for conversion back to time, so that a light-light-year is longer under the sea or in other dielectrics.

Maybe this election result will last for more than half a light-parsec.

err, isn't a light light year = 0 seconds?

dyqik wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:21 pm

Gfamily wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:15 pm

dyqik wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 12:25 pm

There's nothing wrong per se with light years as a unit of time. It's just a bit weird, as a light-light-year would be equal to exactly one year. I guess you could define them using a light-year of distance in vacuum, and then use the speed of light in the local medium for conversion back to time, so that a light-light-year is longer under the sea or in other dielectrics.

Maybe this election result will last for more than half a light-parsec.

err, isn't a light light year = 0 seconds?

No. A light-year is the distance that light travels in a year. Therefore a light-light-year should be the time that light takes to travel the distance that light travels in a year. At least, if you want to construct a unit of time from a light-year, that's the easiest and most universal way to do it.

tenchboy wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:43 am

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:09 am And besides, I'm pretty sure that the UN War Crimes Commission have said that Chris de Burgh torture is illegal and never has any justification. We don't want the site being shut down.

Also, if we did play any Chris de burgh it'd be a spaceman came travelling.

Hmm, is it OK to punch CdB when he sings "...through light-years of time"?

Little waster wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 11:01 am Lots of photos of big queues outside polling stations suggesting either high turn-out or piss-poor organisation. You pays your money and you makes your choice. Anyone's guess if turnout is really up and who that actually benefits.

I live opposite my local polling station, no queues but a constant trickle of voters. Only one person inside marking off names so there was about a minute's worth of hanging around inside waiting to get see to.

GeenDienst wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 10:23 am This is the only explanation I can think of why Corbyn called this election when way behind in the polls, reportedly over the objections of his shadow cabinet, and when the Johnson government was trapped and floundering.

Conversely, when the government is trapped and floundering is exactly the right point to call an election.

Similarly with the end of October deadline looming Labour had a get-out in avoiding an early election to prevent an "accidental" No Deal Brexit by default but once that got shifted to January 2020, with just enough time for a Xmas election to attempt to bring some Parliamentary clarity, they no longer had that reason and risked looking frit.

You also have to remember all the polling at the time suggested Johnson failing to die in a ditch on the 31st October would result in a Conservative polling meltdown, to the benefit of the BP, with Labour then sneaking through the middle. What we had instead was an electoral Heisenberg Event with everyone adjusting their behaviours accordingly, so Johnson's went harder on the "Get Brexit Done" line than he might have done, Farage made his miscalculation which saw the BP apparently evaporate and Swinson et al. went down an informal Remain Alliance route to the apparent benefit of Corbyn. It is still to be seen how all those adjustments ultimately hold-up and unknowable what an alternative Corbyn decision would have resulted in.

Ideally I'd have left Johnson swinging in the wind a bit longer with a negative majority, a disgruntled DUP and the economy turning sour; the likelihood is a Spring 2020 election would have been a completely different box of monkeys but I'm not sure that was ever a viable option with the January deadline approaching.

Gfamily wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2019 2:56 pm I know we should be cross, but...
Boris captcha.jpg