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Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 10:56 am
by Trinucleus
.....OK....... so someone has checked that the visuals don't look brilliant there but thought it was OK to take the PM to the Titanic Museum
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 12:43 pm
by lpm
Anyone understand what's going on over in LibDem land?
"I agree with Nick Tim Vince Jo Ed*, we need a PM who goes to Alton Towers."
* This is correct, I googled it, their leader is someone called Ed Davey.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 12:53 pm
by lpm
I am the only person in this forum, possibly in this country, who knows who the Deputy Leader of the LibDems is.
Such is the miracle of the google age.
I will give you the answer in case it comes up in a trivia question in the next few weeks.
It is someone called Daisy Cooper.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 1:01 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
Week 1 of 6 of the General Election campaign is now complete. The polls have shown very little change.
The 14-day average across all polls for each party on the 23rd May was this:
CON 23.4%
LAB 44.5%
LIB 9.7%
GRN 6.3%
REF 10.8%
13 polls later, today those figures look like this:
CON 23.6%
LAB 44.6%
LIB 9.6%
GRN 5.9%
REF 10.9%
So not much difference. Not sure which polls are due out today as the election messes up the schedule, but so far there's nothing really happened in terms of voting intention.
Note that I've re-weighted my polls to lower the impact of the higher frequency ones, so they don't overweigh the average. I've also added a weighting for the different categories of pollsters that Sam Freedman retweeted the other day, so the ones which ask a "squeeze" question on don't knows are fully weighted, whereas those who don't ask that question, or who do complicated modelling of don't knows, have a 20% lower weighting.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 1:02 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
lpm wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 12:53 pm
I am the only person in this forum, possibly in this country, who knows who the Deputy Leader of the LibDems is.
Such is the miracle of the google age.
I will give you the answer in case it comes up in a trivia question in the next few weeks.
It is someone called Daisy Cooper.
What, the woman who was on Taskmaster and does comedy shows on the BBC?
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 1:11 pm
by lpm
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 1:02 pm
lpm wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 12:53 pm
I am the only person in this forum, possibly in this country, who knows who the Deputy Leader of the LibDems is.
Such is the miracle of the google age.
I will give you the answer in case it comes up in a trivia question in the next few weeks.
It is someone called Daisy Cooper.
What, the woman who was on Taskmaster and does comedy shows on the BBC?
Dunno. I've reached the end of my LibDem knowledge.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 1:18 pm
by Gfamily
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 1:02 pm
lpm wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 12:53 pm
It is someone called Daisy Cooper.
What, the woman who was on Taskmaster and does comedy shows on the BBC?
That's Daisy May Copper, the LibDem one is Daisy definitely won't Cooper
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 1:19 pm
by IvanV
English wildflowers identification chart no 94, how to tell the difference between a:
Daisy Cooper, unfamous liberal politician
and a
Daisy May Cooper, famous comedy actress and writer.
The key distinguishing feature is that a Daisy May Cooper always includes her middle name, probably to avoid being mistaken for an unfamous liberal politician.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 4:13 pm
by Gfamily
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 6:31 pm
by FlammableFlower
Although mainly symbolic, another Tory defects to Labour.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 6:39 pm
by Brightonian
- 20240530_193626.jpg (74.26 KiB) Viewed 33703 times
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 9:27 pm
by dyqik
FlammableFlower wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 6:31 pm
Although mainly symbolic, another Tory defects to Labour.
They aren't an MP any more, so it's barely even symbolic.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 9:52 pm
by Grumble
dyqik wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 9:27 pm
FlammableFlower wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 6:31 pm
Although mainly symbolic, another Tory defects to Labour.
They aren't an MP any more, so it's barely even symbolic.
They were at least the Tory candidate, presumably if the election hadn’t been called last week they would’ve walked across the floor this week.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Thu May 30, 2024 10:01 pm
by Beaker
Grumble wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 9:52 pm
dyqik wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 9:27 pm
FlammableFlower wrote: Thu May 30, 2024 6:31 pm
Although mainly symbolic, another Tory defects to Labour.
They aren't an MP any more, so it's barely even symbolic.
They were at least the Tory candidate, presumably if the election hadn’t been called last week they would’ve walked across the floor this week.
Was our local. He posted a TikTok where he got some primary school kids to sing ‘big up Bozza’ which is wrong on so many levels.
He will now be able to spend just as much time as he did before with his private landlording business.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Fri May 31, 2024 2:53 pm
by El Pollo Diablo
A lot of focus in the polls at the moment on the "Don't Knows". Proportionally, there are more people who are older and/or 2019 Conservative voters who are currently saying they don't know how they'll vote than other demographics.
The difference in the polls is decently chunky. If you look at polls which exclude all current DKs since the election announcement (twelve of them), then the current average support for the Tories is 21.8% and 45.9% for Labour. In contrast, if you just take polls (six of them) which try to reassign DKs to parties - which in turn assumes that they'll "come home" to some degree - then the Tories are on 27.0% and Labour on 42.8%.
Now, obviously, neither of those situations are currently especially good for the Tories, but another five weeks is a long time for intentions to shift. Presumably if Sunak starts promising ritual sacrifices of every third 21-year old to heat the homes of the elderly - the kind of policy that pleases his core voter - he might start to see his support tick up a bit.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Fri May 31, 2024 3:06 pm
by Trinucleus
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 2:53 pm
A lot of focus in the polls at the moment on the "Don't Knows". Proportionally, there are more people who are older and/or 2019 Conservative voters who are currently saying they don't know how they'll vote than other demographics.
The difference in the polls is decently chunky. If you look at polls which exclude all current DKs since the election announcement (twelve of them), then the current average support for the Tories is 21.8% and 45.9% for Labour. In contrast, if you just take polls (six of them) which try to reassign DKs to parties - which in turn assumes that they'll "come home" to some degree - then the Tories are on 27.0% and Labour on 42.8%.
Now, obviously, neither of those situations are currently especially good for the Tories, but another five weeks is a long time for intentions to shift. Presumably if Sunak starts promising ritual sacrifices of every third 21-year old to heat the homes of the elderly - the kind of policy that pleases his core voter - he might start to see his support tick up a bit.
I heard one analyst say that given Starmer is far more popular than Sunak, and Labour is trusted more on the economy than the Tories, when Don't Knows do pick a side, the split it is likely to favour Labour
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Fri May 31, 2024 7:43 pm
by Sciolus
DKs are also likely to favour the party that looks most like winning, partly because of the psychology where people want to be on the winning team, and partly because the papers will suddenly start sucking up to whoever's going to win.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2024 9:36 am
by nekomatic
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2024 11:11 am
by IvanV
Starmer promises to cut net migration (BBC).
I couldn't believe it, to start with. But look at the graphs in the article. There has been a huge surge in net migration just recently, to around three times the pre-Brexit level. So perhaps this is a vacuous promise, as maybe this spike will fall away of its own accord without anyone doing anything. It maybe just happened as a coincidence of circumstances, like the recent large peak in inflation. It is evident that "stop the boats" has been a distraction for this supposedly "firm on migration" administration to distract from the embarrassing facts. And these
Tory voters on their way to collect food from a foodbank (youtube Maximilien Robespierre) are deluding themselves in the reason they give for voting Tory.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2024 4:23 pm
by dyqik
IvanV wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 11:11 am
Starmer promises to cut net migration (BBC).
I couldn't believe it, to start with. But look at the graphs in the article. There has been a huge surge in net migration just recently, to around three times the pre-Brexit level. So perhaps this is a vacuous promise, as maybe this spike will fall away of its own accord without anyone doing anything. It maybe just happened as a coincidence of circumstances, like the recent large peak in inflation. It is evident that "stop the boats" has been a distraction for this supposedly "firm on migration" administration to distract from the embarrassing facts. And these
Tory voters on their way to collect food from a foodbank (youtube Maximilien Robespierre) are deluding themselves in the reason they give for voting Tory.
A very large amount of that spike is international students - who are not long term immigrants - returning post-CoVID. Remove students from the stats (where they shouldn't be - the Tories added them to make immigration look out of control), and immigration immediately goes down, and hey presto, Starmer has cut immigration.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2024 4:37 pm
by Sciolus
Also, much immigration in the last few years has been people from Hong Kong and Ukraine under special visa programmes. Demand from those countries is unlikely to continue long term, as most of those who want to move here will already have done so.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:56 am
by El Pollo Diablo
Trust in Labour on immigration is low, and if they've any mind to be more positive about the topic, the best time for that is after the election. Not saying they will do, but there's little point doing that at the moment.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:03 am
by jimbob
El Pollo Diablo wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:56 am
Trust in Labour on immigration is low, and if they've any mind to be more positive about the topic, the best time for that is after the election. Not saying they will do, but there's little point doing that at the moment.
Exactly
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:27 am
by nekomatic
I’ve said it before but people are mistaken if they assume that Labour as the party of general right-on-ness should be naturally sympathetic to immigration. The trade union movement is historically sceptical of foreign workers depressing wages and I think there’s still a strong current of that in the party alongside the more accepting internationalist left position.
Re: General Election '24
Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:45 am
by TopBadger
Who are disillusioned Tory voters going to vote for? LD or Labour?
I'm in the Tory stronghold of Saffron Walden (well, North West Essex is the new seat), and whilst I'd like to vote Labour I think my best tactical vote to oust Kemi Badenoch is to vote LD and hope enough former Tory voters do the same. LD's have found themselves in second place numerous times in the last few elections and are pretty popular locally.