Scrutable

TopBadger wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:45 am Who are disillusioned Tory voters going to vote for? LD or Labour?

I'm in the Tory stronghold of Saffron Walden (well, North West Essex is the new seat), and whilst I'd like to vote Labour I think my best tactical vote to oust Kemi Badenoch is to vote LD and hope enough former Tory voters do the same. LD's have found themselves in second place numerous times in the last few elections and are pretty popular locally.

There are tactical voting websites. Stopthetories.vote is being pushed by Carol Vordeman, so hopefully quite a few tactical voters will align with it.

Hopefully the reputable tactical voting groups will take into account each others recommendations and maybe even align.


But it currently looks difficult. Although the LD seems to have slightly more chance of winning than Labour

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... rth%20West

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 11:00 am
There are tactical voting websites. Stopthetories.vote is being pushed by Carol Vordeman, so hopefully quite a few tactical voters will align with it.

Hopefully the reputable tactical voting groups will take into account each others recommendations and maybe even align.


But it currently looks difficult. Although the LD seems to have slightly more chance of winning than Labour

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... rth%20West

Thanks. I was pretty sure Labour and LD would continue to split the anti-tory vote and that prediction holds. Makes me really wish we had STV. Last time around I wrote to both the candidates and asked them to get out of each others way but of course they didn't. The annoying thing here is that for the first time it seems the LD's could win if Labour didn't stand.

Sunak's campaign, the gift that keeps on giving
https://x.com/ShehabKhan/status/1797601393886523557

Every LibDem candidate is going to be at death's door by election time. What are they playing at, messing around in boats on Britain's sewers?

lpm wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 1:36 pm Every LibDem candidate is going to be at death's door by election time. What are they playing at, messing around in boats on Britain's sewers?

At least the BBC would mention them then, rather than holding another interview with someone not standing, and not leading a party.

If they do end up as the official opposition, then the press is really not going to know what to do.

Gfamily wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 1:23 pm Sunak's campaign, the gift that keeps on giving
https://x.com/ShehabKhan/status/1797601393886523557

Sunak is campaigning in Henley Thames, not only that, but looking as though it's the Leander Boat Club.

If that's not a waste of campaigning effort and time, it's really bad news for the Tories.

Maybe he wants to be in his comfort zone

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 1:45 pm

Gfamily wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 1:23 pm Sunak's campaign, the gift that keeps on giving
https://x.com/ShehabKhan/status/1797601393886523557

Sunak is campaigning in Henley Thames, not only that, but looking as though it's the Leander Boat Club.

If that's not a waste of campaigning effort and time, it's really bad news for the Tories.

Maybe he wants to be in his comfort zone

Ah it does make sense

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... +and+Thame

My MP has been here since I was in junior school (I'm in my 40s now) and we are an incredibly safe seat (he regularly gets over 50% of the vote) to the point where I can't remember getting anything from him at general election time. In the last 3 months or so I've had at least 4 (I've honestly lost count) leaflets and newsletters from him and my mum (I'm guessing because she's a postal voter) has also received a survey from him.

He's clearly nervous, for the first time ever. From what I've heard (I know I'm voting for our LibDem candidate so haven't bothered to check) the tactical voting sites are all suggesting voting Labour even though Labour only selected their candidate a couple of weeks ago and while they have come in second in the more recent elections there's nothing to suggest they have the soft support to bridge the gap needed. Reform are standing here which are going to split the Tory vote and while it's still a longshot I really think the LibDems have the best chance in a long time.

Perennial loser Nigel Farage looks like he wants to lose again, the oily c.nt.

Well that's put a cat among the pigeons a rat among the other rats.

Clacton's going to be interesting.

If all the smaller parties form a pact with Labour, there's a tiny chance they could swipe it from under the Tory incumbent and Farage's noses.

A razor-thin chance, but worth a go to try and keep Farage out.

I'm wondering if he thinks he can win Clacton (not impossible certainly) and completely trash the Tories this time round, making the rump think they have to accommodate Farage. He immediately crossses the floor and becomes a Tory MP able to stand for the leadership after Sunak resigns.


I'm probably missing something really obvious why that has no chance of success.

headshot wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 3:47 pm Clacton's going to be interesting.

If all the smaller parties form a pact with Labour, there's a tiny chance they could swipe it from under the Tory incumbent and Farage's noses.

A razor-thin chance, but worth a go to try and keep Farage out.

Honestly I think pacts are going to be unlikely. I know that there have been the occasional one in by-elections when there's been a good tit for tat (in a positive way) but when it comes to standard elections Labour is great at saying "you should stand down to let us win" but is terrible at reciprocating.

Does Farage have any actual link with Clacton, beyond thinking that it's a racist shithole that will vote for him?

Because a "carpet-bagger" label can probably hurt him, while he attacks the Tories for being too soft.

No, not really.

From The Guardian:

‘Nigel Farage says he came to the decision at 2pm yesterday, and he will be reminded of this quote a few times over the coming weeks you suspect. In February he told the Times “Do I want to be an MP? Do I want to spend every Friday for the next five years in Clacton?” ‘.

It’s the seat that Douglas Carswell won, isn’t it??

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 1:57 pm

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 1:45 pm

Gfamily wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 1:23 pm Sunak's campaign, the gift that keeps on giving
https://x.com/ShehabKhan/status/1797601393886523557

Sunak is campaigning in Henley Thames, not only that, but looking as though it's the Leander Boat Club.

If that's not a waste of campaigning effort and time, it's really bad news for the Tories.

Maybe he wants to be in his comfort zone

Ah it does make sense

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... +and+Thame

That doesn't stop it being really bad news for the Tories though.

From the Conservative Party Election Broadcast about an hour ago

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:02 pm
From the Conservative Party Election Broadcast about an hour ago

And?

You're not going to complain about the flag being pictured from the "wrong side" are you? Hardly the biggest gaffe this week.

TopBadger wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:44 pm

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:02 pm
From the Conservative Party Election Broadcast about an hour ago

And?

You're not going to complain about the flag being pictured from the "wrong side" are you? Hardly the biggest gaffe this week.

It's not 'wrong side', it's upside down - should be flown wide white top and broadside up.^[1]

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 5:45 pm I'm wondering if he thinks he can win Clacton (not impossible certainly) and completely trash the Tories this time round, making the rump think they have to accommodate Farage. He immediately crossses the floor and becomes a Tory MP able to stand for the leadership after Sunak resigns.


I'm probably missing something really obvious why that has no chance of success.

The Tories aren't going to select the man who just cost them a bunch of seats as their leader through vote splitting. I wouldn't be surprised if much of their membership like him, maybe enough for him to win, but he wouldn't get past the MPs to even get into the party. Anyone prominent enough with enough influence to make it happen will have their own eyes on the Leadership seat.

Also, I bet Farage also thinks he can get what he wants* by just being a thorn in the Conservative's side - I reckon he thinks he was the wedge that caused Brexit**, and he can do that again. He doesn't even need to be an MP for that (though that would help), he just needs publicity, which he'll get just standing in Clacton. I mean, he got plenty when he said he wouldn't stand just the other day.



*Including a side order of grift.

**Which I think there is some truth to, but I also think that the referendum would have happened without him too.

Gfamily wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:56 pm

TopBadger wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:44 pm

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:02 pm
From the Conservative Party Election Broadcast about an hour ago

And?

You're not going to complain about the flag being pictured from the "wrong side" are you? Hardly the biggest gaffe this week.

It's not 'wrong side', it's upside down - should be flown wide white top and broadside up.^[1]

And flying it upside down is a (somewhat covert) signal of distress.

Of course this might just be a nod to Samuel Alito.

TopBadger wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:44 pm

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:02 pm
From the Conservative Party Election Broadcast about an hour ago

And?

You're not going to complain about the flag being pictured from the "wrong side" are you? Hardly the biggest gaffe this week.

The whole thing looked like something Chris Morris would produce.

And the Tory party key targets are more likely than most to care about such things

monkey wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 9:23 pm

jimbob wrote: Mon Jun 03, 2024 5:45 pm I'm wondering if he thinks he can win Clacton (not impossible certainly) and completely trash the Tories this time round, making the rump think they have to accommodate Farage. He immediately crossses the floor and becomes a Tory MP able to stand for the leadership after Sunak resigns.


I'm probably missing something really obvious why that has no chance of success.

The Tories aren't going to select the man who just cost them a bunch of seats as their leader through vote splitting. I wouldn't be surprised if much of their membership like him, maybe enough for him to win, but he wouldn't get past the MPs to even get into the party. Anyone prominent enough with enough influence to make it happen will have their own eyes on the Leadership seat.

Also, I bet Farage also thinks he can get what he wants* by just being a thorn in the Conservative's side - I reckon he thinks he was the wedge that caused Brexit**, and he can do that again. He doesn't even need to be an MP for that (though that would help), he just needs publicity, which he'll get just standing in Clacton. I mean, he got plenty when he said he wouldn't stand just the other day.



*Including a side order of grift.

**Which I think there is some truth to, but I also think that the referendum would have happened without him too.

Farage is being remarkably open and seems to think that it's plausible:

Nigel Farage says he wants to 'take over' the Conservative party
We mentioned in the opening summary that Nigel Farage told ITV’s Good Morning Britain his goal was to take the Conservative party over, rather than join it. Here are the fuller quotes from the interview.

“You can speculate as to what’ll happen in three or four years’ time, all I will tell you is if Reform succeed in the way that I think they can, then a chunk of the Conservative party will join us – it’s the other way around,” he said.

Farage pointed to Canada, where “Reform did a reverse takeover of the Conservative party, rebranded it and Stephen Harper – who was elected as a Reform MP – became the Canadian prime minister for 10 years”.

He said: “I don’t want to join the Conservative party, I think the better thing to do would be to take it over.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/li ... d0d6e61fc1

Though he's a lying liar so maybe its all just a ploy to get more votes in the 2024 election. If there is an apparent long term strategy then that counters the argument that a vote for Reform is wasted or just supports Labour.

I'll point you all to my theory of Farage's intent from January.