Scrutable

The Guardian says Phillips, Nandy and Long-Bailey have all met the threshold for MP nominations.

Hope they all clear the other hurdle, needs a contest, not a coronation.

Lewis, who isn't going to make the cut, is using his last days of standingness to push a new agenda for Labour. Notably, he sees proportional representation as essential, with Labour needing to work with other parties. Indeed:

A commitment to electoral reform was “the litmus test of Labour’s survival”, Lewis said. “A winner-takes-all politics just doesn’t allow us to deal with the complexities of the world as it increasingly is,” he said.

I can't see that ever happening, it would need a referendum and even Clegg's timid attempt at AV sank with the voters like a particularly dense stone in a tank of helium.

Anyway, it's about as post-Corbynist as you can get, no radical socialist transformations to be had there. If only Barry was still running.

Of course it wouldn't need a referendum. Brown was offering AV to Clegg without one back in 2010. We need to kill off referendums for good, because they're a terrible way to make decisions.

Good luck with changing the voting system without one. Especially as one was offered last time, resulting in a resounding vote for the status quo.

Otherwise there's going to have to be some strong signal that there's an appetite for it, which there isn't.

GeenDienst wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:06 pm Good luck with changing the voting system without one. Especially as one was offered last time, resulting in a resounding vote for the status quo.

Otherwise there's going to have to be some strong signal that there's an appetite for it, which there isn't.

Or you bring it in via a different route than for MPs before moving it to the commons. E.g. start electing a third of the House of Lords from the qualified peers, with regional PR.

That's a very long term game, of course.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:19 pm

GeenDienst wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:06 pm Good luck with changing the voting system without one. Especially as one was offered last time, resulting in a resounding vote for the status quo.

Otherwise there's going to have to be some strong signal that there's an appetite for it, which there isn't.

Or you bring it in via a different route than for MPs before moving it to the commons. E.g. start electing a third of the House of Lords from the qualified peers, with regional PR.

That's a very long term game, of course.

Or you just do the usual thing, and throw it into page 57 of a manifesto in some wishy-washy language when you're clearly going to win the GE on other grounds, don't campaign on it, say that nothing will really change when asked about it, and then declare that you have overwhelming support for it after the election.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:22 pm
Or you just do the usual thing, and throw it into page 57 of a manifesto in some wishy-washy language when you're clearly going to win the GE on other grounds, don't campaign on it, say that nothing will really change when asked about it, and then declare that you have overwhelming support for it after the election.

^this.

Thing is, only party that could and might do this is Labour, and when Labour get power, they'll think 'the public have come to their senses' and drop the idea thinking they'll get another majority in future. Like they did in 2001. The fact that Labour MP's have spent some 30 out of the last 40 years in opposition due to a lack of PR will be forgotten.

TopBadger wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:06 pm

dyqik wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:22 pm
Or you just do the usual thing, and throw it into page 57 of a manifesto in some wishy-washy language when you're clearly going to win the GE on other grounds, don't campaign on it, say that nothing will really change when asked about it, and then declare that you have overwhelming support for it after the election.

^this.

Thing is, only party that could and might do this is Labour, and when Labour get power, they'll think 'the public have come to their senses' and drop the idea thinking they'll get another majority in future. Like they did in 2001. The fact that Labour MP's have spent some 30 out of the last 40 years in opposition due to a lack of PR will be forgotten.

Labour however have a strong chance of not getting back into power unless they buddy up with the Libs and Greens, however.

El Pollo Diablo wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:51 am We need to kill off referendums for good, because they're a terrible way to make decisions.

Lewis likes them - just called for a referendum on the Monarchy too - but not to abolish them (which makes me wonder what his question would be about).

GeenDienst wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:23 am Lewis, who isn't going to make the cut

He's launching his campaign today - so he's either going to be awfully embarrassed on Monday or he has more support than you believe.

I think Lewis is probably putting a marker down as an ideas man and general thinker, rather than intending to win or even continue this time. I'd expect to see him in future shadow cabinets. Even if he got the MPs, hard to see him winning over the one-more-heave lefties in the CLPs, having effectively ruled out the True Revolution under his vision of the future.

I think it would be more embarrassing for Thornberry if she doesn't get over the line, she's been visible at the top table for ages and clearly has the ambition. But, as discussed, her unprovoked white van f.ckwittery ruled her out years ago.

Of the four who have cleared the first hurdle, only Starmer didn't nominate himself.

dyqik wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:22 pm Or you just do the usual thing, and throw it into page 57 of a manifesto in some wishy-washy language when you're clearly going to win the GE on other grounds, don't campaign on it, say that nothing will really change when asked about it, and then declare that you have overwhelming support for it after the election.

And if it's also in someone else's manifesto you can add that to your "mandate".

But, are the Boundary Commission changes going to get implemented now? That's designed to cut Labour representation, so maybe they'll never get in again anyway.

The Labour leadership candidate Jess Phillips says she believes the public is prepared to pay more tax to get an NHS-style social care system that looks after elderly and vulnerable people.

They'll tell pollsters that, and then vote Tory for tax cuts.

Woodchopper wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 3:02 pm I've split the personal success derail off into a new thread, which you can find here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=673

Thanks chops

GeenDienst wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:06 pm

The Labour leadership candidate Jess Phillips says she believes the public is prepared to pay more tax to get an NHS-style social care system that looks after elderly and vulnerable people.

They'll tell pollsters that, and then vote Tory for tax cuts.

No, they'll agree with her, but vote Tory because she's an intelligent working class woman.

GeenDienst wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:06 pm

The Labour leadership candidate Jess Phillips says she believes the public is prepared to pay more tax to get an NHS-style social care system that looks after elderly and vulnerable people.

They'll tell pollsters that, and then vote Tory for tax cuts.

It depends on details and PR. There are actually quite a lot of situations where I could see people swallowing a modest tax if it means they still inherit their parents' house.

GeenDienst wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:31 pm I think Lewis is probably putting a marker down as an ideas man and general thinker, rather than intending to win or even continue this time. I'd expect to see him in future shadow cabinets.

Agreed - similarly, Lewis has cropped up on Newsnight a few times recently, and generally seems happy to float ideas in public.

Whereas I've noticed a few times recently on twitter that Phillips has been popping up in places like Flintshire and Grimsby talking to activists in the seats Labour lost, which looks more like a CLP nomination seeking strategy of someone who's actually going for it properly.

JP complains about being labelled a rightwinger, when she maintains she isn't. The constituencies could be a challenge for her, much more so than Nandy or RBLT.

AMS wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:57 pm

GeenDienst wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:31 pm I think Lewis is probably putting a marker down as an ideas man and general thinker, rather than intending to win or even continue this time. I'd expect to see him in future shadow cabinets.

Agreed - similarly, Lewis has cropped up on Newsnight a few times recently, and generally seems happy to float ideas in public.

Whereas I've noticed a few times recently on twitter that Phillips has been popping up in places like Flintshire and Grimsby talking to activists in the seats Labour lost, which looks more like a CLP nomination seeking strategy of someone who's actually going for it properly.

I’m hardly alone when I say I’ve got a lot of time for Jess Phillips. She may be my favourite candidate, I worry slightly that Keir Starmer is a bit too boring. We need someone who can sidestep Boris as much as tackle him.

I too have much time for Phillips, anyone who has told Diane Abbott to f.ck off must have something going for them.

Ms Phillips said: “I roundly told her to f.ck off.” Asked what Ms Abbott did in response, Ms Phillips said: “She f.cked off."

GeenDienst wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:30 pm I too have much time for Phillips, anyone who has told Diane Abbott to f.ck off must have something going for them.

Ms Phillips said: “I roundly told her to f.ck off.” Asked what Ms Abbott did in response, Ms Phillips said: “She9 f.cked off."

The problem is Diane Abbott denies that happened and I get the impression that Jess Phillips is fairly unpopular with people of colour and particularly black people I guess.

Jess Philips wants to believe she's a straight talking northern iconoclast but her values are of the London middle class and I suspect she's talking bollocks about Abbott.

I doubt many of them read Skwawkbox or Spiked, or otherwise give a f.ck.

In other news, article in the Graun today about how Labour can forget about getting all those angry northern towns back. Most of it is handwavy, but it does point to some recent think tank output I hadn't seen:

Last month, the Centre for Towns, a thinktank co-founded by the Labour leadership candidate and Wigan MP, Lisa Nandy, published revealing but little-noticed research about a dozen of the northern seats lost by Labour to the Conservatives last month. Between 1981 and 2011, all of them experienced huge decreases in the proportion of their young residents, and similar increases in the proportion of retired people. In County Durham, Bishop Auckland’s 18- to 24-year-olds went down by 25%, and its over-65s went up by almost 35%. Last month, it was taken by the Tories after more than 80 years of Labour control.

This, it says, is for 1981-2011:
As we know, oldiez meanz Toriez. And it says the projection into the future is for the oldification of these towns to increase further. The trend in cities, where labour remains strong, is opposite to this, consistent with all those youngsters having moved there.

Also in that article:

Labour could wait for that relationship [between Tories and their new pet angry northerners] to go wrong. But there is no guarantee that voters will then return to Labour. The Brexit party, or some other, yet-to-be-formed vehicle for nationalism, or regional pride, or nostalgia, may appeal to an ageing electorate more.

It quotes Gould, from the new Labour days: having seen this coming, he said that Labour's future is in appealing to "the sprawling suburbs of an emerging middle class".