The Invasion of Ukraine

[EACLucifer]

Budanov's reporting that the cooling pond and four of the six reactors at Enerhodar have been rigged with explosives.

Please bear in mind he's predicted things rather better than western Intel - including Prigozhin's rebellion.

Please also remember that Russia is attempting to exterminate an entire culture, and the idea of destroying land they cannot hold is one they seem quite keen on.

This photo from Serhii Nikitenko shows what was one of the biggest lakes in Europe. It could take a decade to restore the water supply to all the areas in southern Ukraine - some of the world's most fertile lands and a major supplier of grain to many of the poorer countries in the world.

And what was the response? What measures that Russia or Putin might actually feel were taken in response to this tremendous crime? It's all very well talking about responses, but we don't want to see an act of nuclear terrorism and a response to it - we want to see an act of nuclear terrorism not take place because of fear of that response. But if you don't respond to other atrocities, how can your warnings of responses have any power? It is as true for the west as it is for Russia. Nobody - except for worthless dickheads like Jake Sullivan - takes Russian threats about red lines seriously because nothing happens when those supposed lines are crossed. The same was true of Obama's claimed red lines in Syria - all talk while the region was yielded to Iranian and Russian imperialism.

[EACLucifer]

Yesterday the Russians celebrated the anniversary of a lethal missile strike against civilians in Kramatorsk by once again using missiles to attack civilians in Kramatorsk. Death toll stands at ten so far, and I'm aware of at least four children among them.

[Martin Y]

Yesterday the Russians celebrated the anniversary of a lethal missile strike against civilians in Kramatorsk by once again using missiles to attack civilians in Kramatorsk. Death toll stands at ten so far, and I'm aware of at least four children among them.

And now the Ukrainians say they have identified and arrested a person who "sent a video of the restaurant and nearby cars to a representative of the self-proclaimed, Russia-controlled Donetsk People's Republic shortly before the attack".

That has the smell of a deliberate attempt to kill someone by bombing the restaurant they visited. Of course I doubt if the Ukrainians would say who they think the Russians' target may have been, even if it was obvious to them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share

[Woodchopper]

And back to production issues.

Raytheon has called in retired engineers to teach its employees how to build the Stinger missiles heavily used by Ukraine’s military—using blueprints drawn up during the Carter administration.

It’s the latest example of a private company working to ramp up production of a now-in-demand weapon that the Pentagon hasn’t purchased in decades.

“Stinger's been out of production for 20 years, and all of a sudden in the first 48 hours [of the war], it's the star of the show and everybody wants more,” Wes Kremer, the president of RTX’s Raytheon division, said during an interview last week at the Paris Air Show.

[…]

When the U.S. Army placed an order for 1,700 Stingers in May 2022, the Pentagon said the missiles wouldn’t be delivered until 2026. Kremer said it will take about 30 months for Stingers to start rolling off of the production line largely because of the time it takes to set up the factory and train its employees.

[…]

“We were bringing back retired employees that are in their 70s … to teach our new employees how to actually build a Stinger,” Kremer said. “We're pulling test equipment out of warehouses and blowing the spider webs off of them.”

https://www.defenseone.com/business/202 ... on/388067/

[Woodchopper]

Kyiv is willing to discuss the future of Crimea with Moscow if its forces reach the border of the Russian-occupied peninsula, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told the Financial Times.

The comments by Andriy Sybiha, deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office, are the most explicit statement of Ukraine’s interest in negotiations since it cut off peace talks with the Kremlin last April.

“If we will succeed in achieving our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we will be on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue,” Sybiha said, referring to Kyiv’s long-planned counteroffensive.

He added: “It doesn’t mean that we exclude the way of liberation [of Crimea] by our army.”

[…]

To date Zelenskyy has ruled out peace talks until Russian forces leave all of Ukraine, including Crimea.

Sybiha is a veteran diplomat who focuses on foreign policy in the president’s office and has been at Zelenskyy’s side at key moments in the war.

[…]

He said the president and his aides were now talking specifically about Crimea, as Ukraine’s army gets closer to launching its counteroffensive to regain territory.

[…]

In the early days of the war, Ukraine was willing to negotiate with Moscow over the future of Crimea rather than insisting on regaining it militarily at all costs.

[…]

Ukraine’s president has repeatedly made clear his ultimate goal of bringing all his country’s land, including Crimea, under Kyiv’s control.

But in May last year he indicated Ukraine could consider a peace deal if Russian forces returned to positions in eastern Ukraine predating last year’s invasion and suggested the issue of Crimea would be resolved later through diplomacy.

https://www.ft.com/content/d68b4007-4dd ... eee2662d6e

Sybiha was very likely to have been authorised by Zelenskyy to say that. If he wasn’t he’ll probably be sacked by now.

Similar claim in this article on a visit by William Burns, CIA director, which took place just before the Prigozhin mutiny:

Publicly, Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration with critics of the pace at which the counteroffensive has played out thus far. But in private, military planners in Kyiv have relayed to Burns and others bullish confidence in their aim to retake substantial territory by the fall; move artillery and missile systems near the boundary line of Russian-controlled Crimea; push further into eastern Ukraine; and then open negotiations with Moscow for the first time since peace talks broke down in March of last year, according to three people familiar with the planning.

“Russia will only negotiate if it feels threatened,” said a senior Ukrainian official.

[…]

Military analysts say Ukraine’s goal of forcing a negotiation is ambitious given Russia’s fortified defenses, but not out of the question.

“It’s possible they can cut off the land bridge to Crimea, either by seizing the terrain or putting it within range of HIMARS and other artillery, but much depends on the level of attrition,” said Rob Lee, a military analyst at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

“If Ukraine sustains too many losses, its offensive could culminate early. But if Ukraine can inflict enough losses on Russian forces and equipment, and interdict the movement of reinforcements, Ukraine may be able to weaken Moscow’s defenses enough to achieve a breakthrough,” he added.
In preparation for the fall, Zelensky and top aides have begun thinking about how Kyiv can force an end to the fighting on terms that are acceptable to Russia and the Ukrainian people

[…]

In an ideal scenario favored by Kyiv, Ukraine’s military would gain leverage over Russia by advancing troops and powerful weapons to the edge of Ukraine’s boundary with Crimea — holding hostage the peninsula that is home to Russia’s prized Black Sea Fleet.

“If Ukraine has the capability to target additional important airfields, bridges, rail lines and logistics hubs, they can make it more difficult for Russia to sustain the war,” said Lee, the military analyst.

In agreeing not to take Crimea by force, Kyiv would then demand that Russia accept whatever security guarantees Ukraine can secure from the West, said Ukrainian officials.

[…]

But while U.S. and Ukrainian officials differ on the topic of NATO membership, they say there is broad agreement on Kyiv’s aims for the offensive.

“The U.S. agrees that Ukraine should enter the negotiations from a strong position,” said a senior Ukrainian official. “The U.S. is satisfied that our command does not do anything stupid, it keeps soldiers and equipment. The support is strong, and it makes our motivation higher.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... offensive/

[jimbob]

There are lots of reports of Russian milbloggers if anything, stepping up their criticism of the Russian MOD since the Wagner mutiny.

Which I think is interesting. I'm not sure it's over yet.

[EACLucifer]

Worrying reports regarding Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

[bjn]

Worrying reports regarding Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Twitter is borked, do you mind cut n’ pasting the post?

[Grumble]

Worrying reports regarding Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Twitter is borked, do you mind cut n’ pasting the post?

The essence is that Russians are leaving the plant and telling some staff to leave before 5 July

[WFJ]

While we support Russia's right to self-defence, the protection of civilians must be prioritised.

In any military operation, we would urge the Russian Armed Forces to demonstrate restraint in its operations and for all parties to avoid further escalation in the Donbas and Crimea.

[Imrael]

While we support Russia's right to self-defence, the protection of civilians must be prioritised.

In any military operation, we would urge the Russian Armed Forces to demonstrate restraint in its operations and for all parties to avoid further escalation in the Donbas and Crimea.

Its probably a bit out of context - but isnt self defence normally practiced within your borders not someone elses territory.

[jimbob]

While we support Russia's right to self-defence, the protection of civilians must be prioritised.

In any military operation, we would urge the Russian Armed Forces to demonstrate restraint in its operations and for all parties to avoid further escalation in the Donbas and Crimea.

Eh? Is this satire? or was Sunak really that tin-eared?

[EACLucifer]

While we support Russia's right to self-defence, the protection of civilians must be prioritised.

In any military operation, we would urge the Russian Armed Forces to demonstrate restraint in its operations and for all parties to avoid further escalation in the Donbas and Crimea.

Its probably a bit out of context - but isnt self defence normally practiced within your borders not someone elses territory.

Nah, WFJ's whining about Israel in a dishonest and pathetic fashion, as per f.cking usual. The context is that Israel conducted a raid in Jenin against explosives storage and command locations belonging to Katibat Jenin, a joint operation by a number of terrorist groups that have between them killed a couple of dozen Israelis - almost entirely civilians - so far this year. It's part of the ongoing escalation of violence that's been going on for a couple of years, and it's own subject.

There isn't really anything directly comparable between the two conflicts, of course, and trying to paint Israel as Russia is particularly stupid given that the PA is quite pro-Russian, and that while Russia very deliberately targets civilians - as do Palestinian militants - all eight of the dead officially announced so far from the raid in Jenin were members of Islamic Jihad, an Iranian backed extremist group that are a major cause of the escalation over the last couple of years.

[WFJ]

While we support Russia's right to self-defence, the protection of civilians must be prioritised.

In any military operation, we would urge the Russian Armed Forces to demonstrate restraint in its operations and for all parties to avoid further escalation in the Donbas and Crimea.

Its probably a bit out of context - but isnt self defence normally practiced within your borders not someone elses territory.

You might make that distinction, but Sunak believes it is fine for facist leaders of oppressive expansionist states to maim and kill people in illegally occupied territories for the security of the occupiers.

[EACLucifer]

Its probably a bit out of context - but isnt self defence normally practiced within your borders not someone elses territory.

You might make that distinction, but Sunak believes it is fine for facist leaders of oppressive expansionist states to maim and kill people in illegally occupied territories for the security of the occupiers.

Do f.ck off you utter dipshit. There's a thread for whining about Israel and you know there is, because you used it to whine that Israel didn't respect Jordan's decision to expel Jews from the parts of Jerusalem they were able to capture in 1948. Every now and then I post about Russian atrocities, air strikes, the destruction of the Kakhovsky Dam, as well as their behaviour towards civilians in occupied parts of Ukraine. Some of those events alone killed more civilians than the entire Arab-Israeli conflict did during the period of the Russian escalation against Ukraine. The most recent estimate I saw of Ukrainian civilian deaths was a couple of months back, and it stood at forty two thousand. In the same time period the number of Palestinian civilian deaths doesn't reach a hundred*, and some of them were killed by short-falling rockets launched by Palestinian Islamic Jihad, an organisation that gets orders and supplies from Iran and was the target of yesterday's raid, where a weapons cache was found in a mosque.

It's odd just how much more interested you are in one conflict than the other. I sincerely hope it's because you are a f.cking idiot rather than the other explanation, but thankfully that interpretation is supported by, well, much of what you say. I still have a chuckle from time to time overthe close juxtaposition of you arguing that Putin was more beloved than a pre-1905 Tsar and thus not at risk of civil unrest and also whining that blaming Russians other than Putin was mean and naughty.

*Probably, but there's always some uncertainty in estimating who is a militant/involved in violence when militants hide among civilians. My estimate's around fifty civilians in Gaza of which around eighteen were killed by short-falling rockets and around thirty in Judea and Samaria during this period, but I could be off by quite a bit and the point would still stand - the Russian invasion of Ukraine is multiple orders of magnitude more lethal than the Arab-Israeli conflict at present, and also vastly more one-sided in terms of blame. Fore context, more than sixty Israeli civilians were killed in the same time period, and it's likely that once short-falling rockets are taken into account Palestinian militant groups killed more civilians than Israel did during the time period in question, but Palestinians also suffered more civilian deaths including one Gazan killed in Israel by a rocket launched at civilians by Palestinian militants.

[EACLucifer]

Russia's making various claims that tomorrow night Ukraine will attack the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. 5th of July is also the date it was claimed they'd ordered staff to leave the plant. There's been scares like this before that have come to nothing. The most likely thing that happens with the plant in the next few days is nothing. But after the almost completely absent response from the west when they blew the dam, killing hundreds and blighting southern Ukraine for a decade, I'm not going to say I don't have some worries.

[TopBadger]

I'm not going to say I don't have some worries.

I bought some Iodine...

[EACLucifer]

I'm not going to say I don't have some worries.

I bought some Iodine...

Zelenskyy's addressed it now. Talk of placing apparent explosives on the reactors. My hope is that this is either Russian fearmongering with dummy explosives, or that they can be threatened into not going through with it - threatened, as it is the only language that will work.

[EACLucifer]

I think Illia Ponomarenko is pretty on the ball here.

IMHO, nothing is going to happen to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power plant neither tonight nor tomorrow or in the nearest time.

Russians have 0 reasons to blow up the biggest European NPP and therefore lose such a precious economic facility and such a handy instrument of intimidation and blackmailing against Ukraine & the world.

And if so, absolutely no one is going to very seriously buy it that it was Ukraine that blew up a giant NPP in the middle of its own national territory (well, no one except for the most interesting personalities on this website, I agree).

But if/when Russians have to leave the plant as a result of a military defeat -- they will be more than interested in stripping Ukraine of such a priceless facility that is crucial for the country's post-war reconstruction and development.

So unless the world gives a very clear message (such as "Ukraine will get a stockpile of Tomahawk missiles if anything happens to the NPP", for instance), chances are high that Russians are going to do that.

But before they have to leave forever, this is unlikely.
However, given all the dumb sh.t they've done throughout this war & beyond, that's not the hill I'd die on.

Threats made to deter in this situation need to be extremely clear, explicit and achievable. It is hard to sufficiently state how much damage to American deterrence Obama did by pontificating about red lines and then doing nothing as the Assad regime and it's Russian and Iranian backers committed crime after crime after crime. Whatever is communicated to the Russians needs to be the opposite of that.

[EACLucifer]

Disregard any news organisation that runs headlines treating the concerns re: Zaporizhzhia NPP as a both sides accuse each other issue. Ukraine has no motive to hit plant and irradiate own land, existing cultural trauma from having their own land irradiated, and no means to do it either.

So, at a minimum, that's Washington Post, Reuters, and Al Jazeera. Mind you, Reuters partnered with TASS until exceptionally recently, and Al Jazeera threw a party for a guy that beat a little girl to death and broadcast holocaust denial, so, you know, you should be pretty sceptical about both of those two anyway.

[jdc]

I'm not going to say I don't have some worries.

I bought some Iodine...

Zelenskyy's addressed it now. Talk of placing apparent explosives on the reactors. My hope is that this is either Russian fearmongering with dummy explosives, or that they can be threatened into not going through with it - threatened, as it is the only language that will work.

Article here on ZNPP: https://kyivindependent.com/on-the-edge ... ear-plant/

“At the ZNPP, the last reactors were shut down in September last year, it's been 10 months, so the obvious conclusion is that there is no more iodine,” Zhelezniak added. His comment reflected an announcement by Ukraine’s State Scientific and Technical Center for Nuclear Safety, which specifically told citizens that there was no reason to take iodine pills in the event of an accident.

Which sounded a little reassuring but then it goes on to say:

Russia could restart the work of some or all of the reactors to a fully-operational setting in advance, significantly increasing the contamination caused by a possible meltdown.

Restarting the reactors in cold shutdown can take up to a week, but can be done relatively quickly for the one in hot shutdown.

[...]

“This means it will produce electricity, it will start producing iodine again, and then you will have more energy in the reactor, hotter fuel which could then burn, and so on,” said Zhelezniak, who loosely predicted an initial exclusion zone with a 40-50 kilometer radius in such a scenario

[...]

the timing and concrete actions required inside the plant would make it near impossible to blame it on a Ukrainian strike

[EACLucifer]

Captain Stanislav Rzhitsky was shot dead in Krasnodar.

I can see reasons that Russians would want him dead - he oversaw mobilisation in the area and sent a lot of mobiks to die.

I can see reasons that Ukrainians would want him dead, and more so than the average Russian officer - as the captain of an attack submarine, he would have been responsible for multiple missile launches at Ukrainian cities.

There's also extensive interaction between the Russian armed forces and organised crime, all the way to the very top, so other potential motives aren't too hard to find either.

[jimbob]

Nice, it's probably just boring organised crime, but still bad for the Russian military.

[Imrael]

Turkey seems to have further distanced itself from Russia - or leant towards The West. In recent days I've seen

Ending opposition to Swedish Nato membership
Statement that they will potentially escort grain ships if Russia doesnt renew the deal
Establishment of a drone factory in Ukraine (which seems to be old news so maybe not relevant).

Its a bit tricky in my mind because Erdogan is not exactly a shining example of open democracy. I dont know much about Turkey but suspect its a fair bit more complicated than just "Erdogan is a proto-dictator so Turkey is lost to democracy". Also "enemy of my enemy" and all that, so long as the price isnt too high

[EACLucifer]

Turkey seems to have further distanced itself from Russia - or leant towards The West. In recent days I've seen

Ending opposition to Swedish Nato membership
Statement that they will potentially escort grain ships if Russia doesnt renew the deal
Establishment of a drone factory in Ukraine (which seems to be old news so maybe not relevant).

Its a bit tricky in my mind because Erdogan is not exactly a shining example of open democracy. I dont know much about Turkey but suspect its a fair bit more complicated than just "Erdogan is a proto-dictator so Turkey is lost to democracy". Also "enemy of my enemy" and all that, so long as the price isnt too high

There's a couple of fundamentals that are going to pushing Turkiye westwards. The first is that they don't want Russia to dominate the Black Sea, just as it was with the Ottomans and the Russian Empire. The second is that closer integration with the west might help with Turkiye's economy, which is in dire straits.