Scrutable

headshot wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:51 pm Would it help if I provided a link? (Imagine that)

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

They, and you, are claiming cases have nearly halved when the official UK statistics claim cases have nearly doubled.

Provide the link to where they get stuck into this massive discrepancy. If true, it's a major finding with huge implications for public policy.

If they haven't thought to get deep into the causes of this, they are a bunch of f.cking idiots .

lpm wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:26 am It's the numbers you are providing that are duds. Where did you get them from? Your numbers cannot possibly right - unless the UK track and trace service miraculously doubled its success rate over the last 3 or 4 weeks.

lpm wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:15 pm

headshot wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:51 pm Would it help if I provided a link? (Imagine that)

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

They, and you, are claiming cases have nearly halved when the official UK statistics claim cases have nearly doubled.

Provide the link to where they get stuck into this massive discrepancy. If true, it's a major finding with huge implications for public policy.

If they haven't thought to get deep into the causes of this, they are a bunch of f.cking idiots .

Gfamily wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:06 pm

headshot wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:51 pm Would it help if I provided a link? (Imagine that)

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

I have to say that I have quite a bit of doubt about some aspects of their results

Looking at the map for the NW of England, there are LAs with estimates of >100 cases per 100K directly adjacent to LAs with zero.
Which seems unlikely

covid2.PNG

One thing they are doing wrong (I do contribute to the app) is they send out test kits on a sample basis to those reporting symptoms (which is good) but not to those not reporting symptoms.

What they should do is compare both in order to see not just the probability of the various symptoms being COVID-19, but also the proportion not displaying symptoms, or those who later develop symptoms.

The raw positive cases they have are also pretty small.

So is it likely that this means the UK's testing service is finally capable of picking up a decent proportion of asymptomatic cases?

In terms of age structure of cases, here's what the distribution of confirmed cases looks like in Portugal: A small but perceptible increase in under 20s getting it, and a corresponding decline in the proportion of cases in the 70+ groups.

For context, proper lockdown from mid-March, gradual unlocking from mid-May and (AFAICT) high compliance with things like masks and distancing (at least in public).

ETA source: https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-s ... -portugal/

I haven't yet found a similar plot for Italy (and I haven't found the raw data to make my own plot) but from this pdf we can see how the average age of covid-positive cases has decreased
and how more than half of the positive covid results are in asymptomatic cases (green)
The dark blue refers to cases with barely any symptoms, yellow is light symptoms, and orange is severe symptoms.

jimbob wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:28 pm

lpm wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:26 am It's the numbers you are providing that are duds. Where did you get them from? Your numbers cannot possibly right - unless the UK track and trace service miraculously doubled its success rate over the last 3 or 4 weeks.

lpm wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:15 pm

headshot wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:51 pm Would it help if I provided a link? (Imagine that)

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

They, and you, are claiming cases have nearly halved when the official UK statistics claim cases have nearly doubled.

Provide the link to where they get stuck into this massive discrepancy. If true, it's a major finding with huge implications for public policy.

If they haven't thought to get deep into the causes of this, they are a bunch of f.cking idiots .

Gfamily wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:06 pm

headshot wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 12:51 pm Would it help if I provided a link? (Imagine that)

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

I have to say that I have quite a bit of doubt about some aspects of their results

Looking at the map for the NW of England, there are LAs with estimates of >100 cases per 100K directly adjacent to LAs with zero.
Which seems unlikely
covid2.PNG

One thing they are doing wrong (I do contribute to the app) is they send out test kits on a sample basis to those reporting symptoms (which is good) but not to those not reporting symptoms.

What they should do is compare both in order to see not just the probability of the various symptoms being COVID-19, but also the proportion not displaying symptoms, or those who later develop symptoms.

To be fair, it IS the Covid-19 SYMPTOM tracker.

The original idea was for them to track the various symptoms that Covid presents. It was partly through their work that the loss of smell/taste was added to the official symptoms.

They don't purport to track asymptomatic cases, or cases in total. They're only tracking symptomatic cases and doing research around the range of symptoms and how symptomatic patients are affected by other factors in their lifestyle.

headshot wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:43 pm

jimbob wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:28 pm

lpm wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:26 am It's the numbers you are providing that are duds. Where did you get them from? Your numbers cannot possibly right - unless the UK track and trace service miraculously doubled its success rate over the last 3 or 4 weeks.

lpm wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:15 pm
They, and you, are claiming cases have nearly halved when the official UK statistics claim cases have nearly doubled.

Provide the link to where they get stuck into this massive discrepancy. If true, it's a major finding with huge implications for public policy.

If they haven't thought to get deep into the causes of this, they are a bunch of f.cking idiots .

Gfamily wrote: Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:06 pm

I have to say that I have quite a bit of doubt about some aspects of their results

Looking at the map for the NW of England, there are LAs with estimates of >100 cases per 100K directly adjacent to LAs with zero.
Which seems unlikely
covid2.PNG

One thing they are doing wrong (I do contribute to the app) is they send out test kits on a sample basis to those reporting symptoms (which is good) but not to those not reporting symptoms.

What they should do is compare both in order to see not just the probability of the various symptoms being COVID-19, but also the proportion not displaying symptoms, or those who later develop symptoms.

To be fair, it IS the Covid-19 SYMPTOM tracker.

The original idea was for them to track the various symptoms that Covid presents. It was partly through their work that the loss of smell/taste was added to the official symptoms.

They don't purport to track asymptomatic cases, or cases in total. They're only tracking symptomatic cases and doing research around the range of symptoms and how symptomatic patients are affected by other factors in their lifestyle.

True, but they do have 4-million contributors and are now sending out tests. So as well as seeing how many positive results there are from those reporting symptoms, they should also see the converse.

The level is also low at the moment.

In most constituencies, we're talking about say under three thousand contributors so with 1000 cases per million, that's only 3 amongst the contributing population.

And even overall 1265 cases in 67-million means that there are only about 80 symptomatic people reporting.

That number will be subject to quite a bit of noise.

It would be useful to know too how well the Kings study samples the demographics of the infection hotspots.

I could well imagine they have a sample bias towards IT specialists currently working from home etc, and poorer coverage of the zero-hours contract workers at the local abbatoir.

Long twitter thread about how the UK is organising the quarantines. The author is someone who has just arrived back from Croatia and the thread details the various measures in place and how his quarantine will be enforced.

https://twitter.com/ij_ford/status/1297300863736848384

Cure!

Amazing. It's all over.

And it's Donald Trump who discovered the cure. A remarkable achievement.

Some scientists are raising doubts. Fake scientists. Donald Trump says he has a cure, no reason to disbelieve him.

Genomic Analysis Reveals Many Animal Species May Be Vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 Infection
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020 ... 2010146117

tl;dr potential for non-human reservoirs of the disease, Covid may cause severe illness in endangered species

Woodchopper wrote: Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:02 pm Genomic Analysis Reveals Many Animal Species May Be Vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 Infection
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020 ... 2010146117

tl;dr potential for non-human reservoirs of the disease, Covid may cause severe illness in endangered species

If mink and civit cats are, I guess great apes are far closer to us than them, and SARS-COV-2 is pretty able to spread in humans

Interesting story from a South Korean Starbucks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... sk-wearing

27 customers caught coronavirus byt no employees

jimbob wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:17 pm Interesting story from a South Korean Starbucks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... sk-wearing

27 customers caught coronavirus byt no employees

Key points being (1) the employees were wearing masks (2) it appears patient 1 of the cluster was sitting directly under the aircon unit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-n ... e-53907629

First known UK acquired case of Covid19 was 21st February in Nottinghamshire.

Marcus Fysh battles hard to stay in the tight race for stupidest MP of 2020. I have faith in you Marcus.

The Tory backbencher Marcus Fysh said: “Masks should be banned in schools. The country should be getting back to normal not pandering to this scientifically illiterate guff,” he said. “ It is time to end the fear. And keep it away from our kids thank you very much.”

Another day, another u-turn.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... sh-schools

Little waster wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:49 pm Marcus Fysh battles hard to stay in the tight race for stupidest MP of 2020. I have faith in you Marcus.

The Tory backbencher Marcus Fysh said: “Masks should be banned in schools. The country should be getting back to normal not pandering to this scientifically illiterate guff,” he said. “ It is time to end the fear. And keep it away from our kids thank you very much.”

Another day, another u-turn.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... sh-schools

There was a U turn on the U turn as well. Journalists were briefed it was to be masks for all secondary school pupils but then once the announcement was made it changed to only in lockdown areas and up to individual heads elsewhere.

Poor heads! They aren't public health experts and whatever they decide will piss some people off.

Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 45 countries
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20180851v1

Article on women who’se symptoms have been dismissed by their doctors: https://elemental.medium.com/gaslighted ... e0d3419197

Good news, Grant Shapps says it is now safe to go to work ... from his spare bedroom.

Well I for one feel reassured.

Little waster wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:29 am Good news, Grant Shapps says it is now safe to go to work ... from his spare bedroom.

Well I for one feel reassured.

Says the man’s whose cabinet colleagues contracted Covid whilst *checks notes* working in an office together.

AMS wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:40 pm

jimbob wrote: Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:17 pm Interesting story from a South Korean Starbucks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... sk-wearing

27 customers caught coronavirus byt no employees

Key points being (1) the employees were wearing masks (2) it appears patient 1 of the cluster was sitting directly under the aircon unit.

Even more key points beng that the employees were standing up doing work, while customers were sitting down eating and drinking. The airflow was probably somewhat downward (due to it being chilled by aircon). And that the employees were probably further away from the customer most of the time as they had work to do in areas where customers were not permitted. And, of course, one example is poor evidence. There are lots of people running shops wearing masks. Even by chance when an infectious person is present, there will be cases where no employee caught the disease and cases where every employee caught the disease.

And, of course, it is highly relevant when the 27 people were in the shop and for how long compared to the infectious person.