Scrutable

sTeamTraen wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:57 am Nadine Dorries takes on Arran Banks.

I actually have some sympathy for Dorries here, which is why the link goes to Adam Rutherford's retweet and related discussion, where other people take a similar position. Clearly "There is no such thing as herd immunity" is not great wordsmithing (although it only needs "in the absence of a vaccine" to be correct), but I'd rather a government minister be seen to defend "Herd immunity isn't going to happen" than the ultra-libertarian position supported by Banks. (Also, he is a universal c.nt, whereas she is normally just a bit dense.)

It also makes me wonder if there isn't a bit of argy-bargy going on within the government about herd imunity, which I suspect Cummings may never really have given up on.

Remdesivir, Hydroxychloroquine, Lopinavir and Interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on hospitalized COVID-19, as indicated by overall mortality, initiation of ventilation and duration of hospital stay.

jimbob wrote: Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:39 pm

jimbob wrote: Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:42 pm


And the North Somerset cluster from that has made it into the UK official data now:

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

new data

Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

Screenshot 2020-09-12 152021.png

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/C3SKs/10/ (zoomed map from https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/)

jimbob wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:45 pm

Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

The vast majority of COVID deaths in England since July have been mislabelled false positive deaths. Here is the proof. This chart shows the number of tests carried out in hospitals in orange and the deaths in blue.

You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding.

jdc wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:05 pm

You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding.

jdc wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:05 pm I saw this and thought of you: https://twitter.com/ClareCraigPath/stat ... 6324218880

The vast majority of COVID deaths in England since July have been mislabelled false positive deaths. Here is the proof. This chart shows the number of tests carried out in hospitals in orange and the deaths in blue.

You will notice that the shape of the two curves are very similar. We can test this. The chart below demonstrates that since August 93% of the rise in deaths can be accounted for by the rise in the number of tests done in hospitals over the 28 days preceding.

If that's not enough to whet your appetite, there's plenty more graphs and commentary in the thread.

Pity the numbers don't support this: This is what the cumulative deaths from all causes were for each year in the last 20 years

Dr Clare Craig FRCPath
@ClareCraigPath
Pathologist, lover of data, digital pathology and AI, sceptical but optimistic. Between jobs and unpaid but working flat out.

jimbob wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:05 pm Oh, and I've come across

Dr Clare Craig FRCPath
@ClareCraigPath
Pathologist, lover of data, digital pathology and AI, sceptical but optimistic. Between jobs and unpaid but working flat out.

Before.

I think she's the new token scientist.

bob sterman wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:03 pm

jimbob wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:05 pm Oh, and I've come across

Dr Clare Craig FRCPath
@ClareCraigPath
Pathologist, lover of data, digital pathology and AI, sceptical but optimistic. Between jobs and unpaid but working flat out.

Before.

I think she's the new token scientist.

And campaigner for a "free school" in Hampstead...

https://www.hamhigh.co.uk/education/wes ... -1-2366153

tenchboy wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:45 pm

jimbob wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:45 pm

Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

The black blob there on the south coast is Eastbourne and the red Dorset blob stretches over to Weymouth and Durdle Door.
Where all those people were on the beaches together back in the summer.
Would one be a reflection of the other?

dyqik wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 am

tenchboy wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:45 pm

jimbob wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:45 pm

Looking not too good in the South Coast now as well as the places we know.

The black blob there on the south coast is Eastbourne and the red Dorset blob stretches over to Weymouth and Durdle Door.
Where all those people were on the beaches together back in the summer.
Would one be a reflection of the other?

Er, it's Brighton and suburbs.

Eastbourne is visible as a smaller black blob on the east side of Beachy Head, and Hastings is also visible. But the black blobs in East Sussex are basically where the towns with hospitals are.

dyqik wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 am

Er, it's Brighton and suburbs.

Eastbourne is visible as a smaller black blob on the east side of Beachy Head, and Hastings is also visible. But the black blobs in East Sussex are basically where the towns with hospitals are.

discovolante wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:25 pm Erm, spot the difference?

scot.png
UK.png

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... -scotland/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

We were notified late last week of a testing capacity issue with the UK Government Lighthouse facility in Glasgow.

This has meant around 64,000 tests from across the UK, including Scotland, will be rerouted this weekend (Fri-Sun) to other testing sites in the UK and Northern Ireland, including tests from our physical testing sites, for example Regional Tests sites. It is important to note that the majority of these tests are still well within the 24 and 48 hour timeframe for results albeit we do expect to see an increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported.

The Scottish Government is urgently trying to establish with the UK Government what exactly is causing the delay in testing but this is mainly due to demand from out with Scotland.

We continue to reroute routine testing of care home staff through NHS Scotland testing facilities to ensure prompt turnaround times.

This claim is categorically untrue.

There is no capacity issue at the UK government's Glasgow Lighthouse Lab. The Glasgow Lighthouse Lab is highly efficient, with the capacity to analyse tens of thousands of samples a day.

Rerouting tests to other laboratories is a routine practice to ensure timely processing.

KAJ wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:24 pm

discovolante wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:25 pm Erm, spot the difference?

scot.png
UK.png

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coron ... -scotland/
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Scottish Govt

We were notified late last week of a testing capacity issue with the UK Government Lighthouse facility in Glasgow.

This has meant around 64,000 tests from across the UK, including Scotland, will be rerouted this weekend (Fri-Sun) to other testing sites in the UK and Northern Ireland, including tests from our physical testing sites, for example Regional Tests sites. It is important to note that the majority of these tests are still well within the 24 and 48 hour timeframe for results albeit we do expect to see an increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported.

The Scottish Government is urgently trying to establish with the UK Government what exactly is causing the delay in testing but this is mainly due to demand from out with Scotland.

We continue to reroute routine testing of care home staff through NHS Scotland testing facilities to ensure prompt turnaround times.

UK Gov (via BBC)

This claim is categorically untrue.

There is no capacity issue at the UK government's Glasgow Lighthouse Lab. The Glasgow Lighthouse Lab is highly efficient, with the capacity to analyse tens of thousands of samples a day.

Rerouting tests to other laboratories is a routine practice to ensure timely processing.

Note they do not deny a delay in 64,000 tests, or a likely "increase in the level of positives on Monday and Tuesday when the results are reported", just that any delay is due to a "capacity issue". Humphrey Appleby would be proud.

tenchboy wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:20 pm

dyqik wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:30 am

Er, it's Brighton and suburbs.

Eastbourne is visible as a smaller black blob on the east side of Beachy Head, and Hastings is also visible. But the black blobs in East Sussex are basically where the towns with hospitals are.

Er, don't know what happened there, I meant Bournemouth, the black blob to the west.
Or rather I do know what happened there, I was thinking Bournemouth, not Eastbourne, Bournemouth, don't write Eastbourne, Eastbourne is to the east, this is the one to the west that is Bournmouth the one that isn't Eastbourne.
And the because it was on my mind, I wrote Eastebourne.
Get me a new head, this one's done for.

raven wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:10 pm So. They're about to change the UK data dashboard again.

The new version, which is here, doesn't seem much different. But the new interactive map is. You can still drill down to the same small areas (well, in England anyway), the colour coding is much better, and clicking on an area opens up a nice clear pop-up box of stats with a comparison to the national average. Might be slightly confusing to have straight daily cases numbers and a rolling 7-day average per 100,000, but otherwise the new map might actually be an improvement on the previous one.

I'm almost pleasantly surprised.